Temperature extremes in Europe: mechanisms and responses to climate change.
Europe witnessed a spate of record-breaking warm seasons during the 2000s, inducing particularly strong societal and environmental impacts. This thesis aims to contribute to the understanding of physical mechanisms responsible for such extremes, in order to anticipate their responses to future clima...
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Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis |
Language: | French |
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HAL CCSD
2010
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Online Access: | https://theses.hal.science/tel-00561972 https://theses.hal.science/tel-00561972/document https://theses.hal.science/tel-00561972/file/ms.pdf |
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ftutoulouse3hal:oai:HAL:tel-00561972v1 |
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record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier: HAL-UPS |
op_collection_id |
ftutoulouse3hal |
language |
French |
topic |
extrêmes de température dynamique du climat changement climatique [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology |
spellingShingle |
extrêmes de température dynamique du climat changement climatique [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology Cattiaux, Julien Temperature extremes in Europe: mechanisms and responses to climate change. |
topic_facet |
extrêmes de température dynamique du climat changement climatique [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology |
description |
Europe witnessed a spate of record-breaking warm seasons during the 2000s, inducing particularly strong societal and environmental impacts. This thesis aims to contribute to the understanding of physical mechanisms responsible for such extremes, in order to anticipate their responses to future climate change. Involved processes are assessed by both statistical data-analysis of observations and climate projections and regional modeling experiments. First we show that while the inter-annual European temperature variability appears driven by disturbances in the North-Atlantic dynamics, the recent warming is likely to be dissociated with potential circulation changes. This inconsistency climaxes during the exceptionally mild autumn of 2006. Recent warm surface conditions in the North-Atlantic ocean seem to substantially contribute to the European warming in autumn--winter, while more local processes appear predominant in spring--summer (e.g., influence of soil moisture). Then multi-model analysis, based on climate projections of the International Panel on Climate Change, show that the inconsistency noticed over recent decades is likely to continue in future years. In particular, it appears that climate change does not affect the internal variability of the North-Atlantic dynamics in a significant manner. Thus future temperature extremes should be associated with circulations similar to those observed during recent episodes. In this context the European winter of 2009/10 can be considered as a cold extreme in a warming climate. Le climat des années 2000 a été marqué en Europe par une vague d'épisodes chauds battant tous les précédents records saisonniers de température et s'accompagnant d'impacts sociétaux et environnementaux particulièrement sévères. Cette thèse se propose de contribuer à la compréhension des mécanismes physiques responsables de tels extrêmes, dans le but d'anticiper leurs réponses au changement climatique futur. Ce travail mêle ainsi analyses statistiques de données d'observations et de ... |
author2 |
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris VI Robert Vautard |
format |
Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis |
author |
Cattiaux, Julien |
author_facet |
Cattiaux, Julien |
author_sort |
Cattiaux, Julien |
title |
Temperature extremes in Europe: mechanisms and responses to climate change. |
title_short |
Temperature extremes in Europe: mechanisms and responses to climate change. |
title_full |
Temperature extremes in Europe: mechanisms and responses to climate change. |
title_fullStr |
Temperature extremes in Europe: mechanisms and responses to climate change. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Temperature extremes in Europe: mechanisms and responses to climate change. |
title_sort |
temperature extremes in europe: mechanisms and responses to climate change. |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
https://theses.hal.science/tel-00561972 https://theses.hal.science/tel-00561972/document https://theses.hal.science/tel-00561972/file/ms.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
https://theses.hal.science/tel-00561972 Climatologie. Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris VI, 2010. Français. ⟨NNT : ⟩ |
op_relation |
tel-00561972 https://theses.hal.science/tel-00561972 https://theses.hal.science/tel-00561972/document https://theses.hal.science/tel-00561972/file/ms.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1797588086607052800 |
spelling |
ftutoulouse3hal:oai:HAL:tel-00561972v1 2024-04-28T08:30:06+00:00 Temperature extremes in Europe: mechanisms and responses to climate change. Extrêmes de température en Europe : mécanismes et réponses au changement climatique. Cattiaux, Julien Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris VI Robert Vautard 2010-12-22 https://theses.hal.science/tel-00561972 https://theses.hal.science/tel-00561972/document https://theses.hal.science/tel-00561972/file/ms.pdf fr fre HAL CCSD tel-00561972 https://theses.hal.science/tel-00561972 https://theses.hal.science/tel-00561972/document https://theses.hal.science/tel-00561972/file/ms.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess https://theses.hal.science/tel-00561972 Climatologie. Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris VI, 2010. Français. ⟨NNT : ⟩ extrêmes de température dynamique du climat changement climatique [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis Theses 2010 ftutoulouse3hal 2024-04-04T17:23:14Z Europe witnessed a spate of record-breaking warm seasons during the 2000s, inducing particularly strong societal and environmental impacts. This thesis aims to contribute to the understanding of physical mechanisms responsible for such extremes, in order to anticipate their responses to future climate change. Involved processes are assessed by both statistical data-analysis of observations and climate projections and regional modeling experiments. First we show that while the inter-annual European temperature variability appears driven by disturbances in the North-Atlantic dynamics, the recent warming is likely to be dissociated with potential circulation changes. This inconsistency climaxes during the exceptionally mild autumn of 2006. Recent warm surface conditions in the North-Atlantic ocean seem to substantially contribute to the European warming in autumn--winter, while more local processes appear predominant in spring--summer (e.g., influence of soil moisture). Then multi-model analysis, based on climate projections of the International Panel on Climate Change, show that the inconsistency noticed over recent decades is likely to continue in future years. In particular, it appears that climate change does not affect the internal variability of the North-Atlantic dynamics in a significant manner. Thus future temperature extremes should be associated with circulations similar to those observed during recent episodes. In this context the European winter of 2009/10 can be considered as a cold extreme in a warming climate. Le climat des années 2000 a été marqué en Europe par une vague d'épisodes chauds battant tous les précédents records saisonniers de température et s'accompagnant d'impacts sociétaux et environnementaux particulièrement sévères. Cette thèse se propose de contribuer à la compréhension des mécanismes physiques responsables de tels extrêmes, dans le but d'anticiper leurs réponses au changement climatique futur. Ce travail mêle ainsi analyses statistiques de données d'observations et de ... Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis North Atlantic Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier: HAL-UPS |