Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts
International audience Abstract. Major disruptions of the winter season, high-latitude stratospheric polar vortices can result in stratospheric anomalies that persist for months. These sudden stratospheric warming events are recognized as an important potential source of forecast skill for surface c...
Published in: | Geoscientific Model Development |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2022
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03712677 https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03712677/document https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03712677/file/gmd-15-5073-2022.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022 |
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Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier: HAL-UPS |
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ftutoulouse3hal |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere Hitchcock, Peter Butler, Amy Charlton-Perez, Andrew Garfinkel, Chaim Stockdale, Tim Anstey, James Mitchell, Dann Domeisen, Daniela Wu, Tongwen Lu, Yixiong Mastrangelo, Daniele Malguzzi, Piero Lin, Hai Muncaster, Ryan Merryfield, Bill Sigmond, Michael Xiang, Baoqiang Jia, Liwei Hyun, Yu-Kyung Oh, Jiyoung Specq, Damien Simpson, Isla Richter, Jadwiga Barton, Cory Knight, Jeff Lim, Eun-Pa Hendon, Harry Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
description |
International audience Abstract. Major disruptions of the winter season, high-latitude stratospheric polar vortices can result in stratospheric anomalies that persist for months. These sudden stratospheric warming events are recognized as an important potential source of forecast skill for surface climate on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. Realizing this skill in operational subseasonal forecast models remains a challenge, as models must capture both the evolution of the stratospheric polar vortices in addition to their coupling to the troposphere. The processes involved in this coupling remain a topic of open research. We present here the Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI) project. SNAPSI is a new model intercomparison protocol designed to study the role of the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex disturbances for surface predictability in subseasonal to seasonal forecast models. Based on a set of controlled, subseasonal ensemble forecasts of three recent events, the protocol aims to address four main scientific goals. First, to quantify the impact of improved stratospheric forecasts on near-surface forecast skill. Second, to attribute specific extreme events to stratospheric variability. Third, to assess the mechanisms by which the stratosphere influences the troposphere in the forecast models. Fourth, to investigate the wave processes that lead to the stratospheric anomalies themselves. Although not a primary focus, the experiments are furthermore expected to shed light on coupling between the tropical stratosphere and troposphere. The output requested will allow for a more detailed, process-based community analysis than has been possible with existing databases of subseasonal forecasts. |
author2 |
Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hitchcock, Peter Butler, Amy Charlton-Perez, Andrew Garfinkel, Chaim Stockdale, Tim Anstey, James Mitchell, Dann Domeisen, Daniela Wu, Tongwen Lu, Yixiong Mastrangelo, Daniele Malguzzi, Piero Lin, Hai Muncaster, Ryan Merryfield, Bill Sigmond, Michael Xiang, Baoqiang Jia, Liwei Hyun, Yu-Kyung Oh, Jiyoung Specq, Damien Simpson, Isla Richter, Jadwiga Barton, Cory Knight, Jeff Lim, Eun-Pa Hendon, Harry |
author_facet |
Hitchcock, Peter Butler, Amy Charlton-Perez, Andrew Garfinkel, Chaim Stockdale, Tim Anstey, James Mitchell, Dann Domeisen, Daniela Wu, Tongwen Lu, Yixiong Mastrangelo, Daniele Malguzzi, Piero Lin, Hai Muncaster, Ryan Merryfield, Bill Sigmond, Michael Xiang, Baoqiang Jia, Liwei Hyun, Yu-Kyung Oh, Jiyoung Specq, Damien Simpson, Isla Richter, Jadwiga Barton, Cory Knight, Jeff Lim, Eun-Pa Hendon, Harry |
author_sort |
Hitchcock, Peter |
title |
Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts |
title_short |
Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts |
title_full |
Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts |
title_fullStr |
Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts |
title_full_unstemmed |
Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts |
title_sort |
stratospheric nudging and predictable surface impacts (snapsi): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03712677 https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03712677/document https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03712677/file/gmd-15-5073-2022.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022 |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic |
op_source |
ISSN: 1991-9603 EISSN: 1991-959X Geoscientific Model Development https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03712677 Geoscientific Model Development, 2022, 15 (13), pp.5073-5092. ⟨10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022 meteo-03712677 https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03712677 https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03712677/document https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03712677/file/gmd-15-5073-2022.pdf doi:10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022 |
container_title |
Geoscientific Model Development |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
13 |
container_start_page |
5073 |
op_container_end_page |
5092 |
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1785582571713724416 |
spelling |
ftutoulouse3hal:oai:HAL:meteo-03712677v1 2023-12-17T10:19:17+01:00 Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts Hitchcock, Peter Butler, Amy Charlton-Perez, Andrew Garfinkel, Chaim Stockdale, Tim Anstey, James Mitchell, Dann Domeisen, Daniela Wu, Tongwen Lu, Yixiong Mastrangelo, Daniele Malguzzi, Piero Lin, Hai Muncaster, Ryan Merryfield, Bill Sigmond, Michael Xiang, Baoqiang Jia, Liwei Hyun, Yu-Kyung Oh, Jiyoung Specq, Damien Simpson, Isla Richter, Jadwiga Barton, Cory Knight, Jeff Lim, Eun-Pa Hendon, Harry Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2022 https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03712677 https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03712677/document https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03712677/file/gmd-15-5073-2022.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022 en eng HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022 meteo-03712677 https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03712677 https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03712677/document https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03712677/file/gmd-15-5073-2022.pdf doi:10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1991-9603 EISSN: 1991-959X Geoscientific Model Development https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03712677 Geoscientific Model Development, 2022, 15 (13), pp.5073-5092. ⟨10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022⟩ [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2022 ftutoulouse3hal https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022 2023-11-22T17:48:53Z International audience Abstract. Major disruptions of the winter season, high-latitude stratospheric polar vortices can result in stratospheric anomalies that persist for months. These sudden stratospheric warming events are recognized as an important potential source of forecast skill for surface climate on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. Realizing this skill in operational subseasonal forecast models remains a challenge, as models must capture both the evolution of the stratospheric polar vortices in addition to their coupling to the troposphere. The processes involved in this coupling remain a topic of open research. We present here the Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI) project. SNAPSI is a new model intercomparison protocol designed to study the role of the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex disturbances for surface predictability in subseasonal to seasonal forecast models. Based on a set of controlled, subseasonal ensemble forecasts of three recent events, the protocol aims to address four main scientific goals. First, to quantify the impact of improved stratospheric forecasts on near-surface forecast skill. Second, to attribute specific extreme events to stratospheric variability. Third, to assess the mechanisms by which the stratosphere influences the troposphere in the forecast models. Fourth, to investigate the wave processes that lead to the stratospheric anomalies themselves. Although not a primary focus, the experiments are furthermore expected to shed light on coupling between the tropical stratosphere and troposphere. The output requested will allow for a more detailed, process-based community analysis than has been possible with existing databases of subseasonal forecasts. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier: HAL-UPS Antarctic Arctic Geoscientific Model Development 15 13 5073 5092 |