Summer predictions of Arctic sea ice edge in multi-model seasonal re-forecasts
International audience In this study, the forecast quality of 1993-2014 summer seasonal predictions of five global coupled models, of which three are operational seasonal forecasting systems contributing to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), is assessed for Arctic sea ice. Beyond the Pan-A...
Published in: | Climate Dynamics |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2020
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://insu.hal.science/insu-03668365 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05273-8 |
id |
ftutoulouse3hal:oai:HAL:insu-03668365v1 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftutoulouse3hal:oai:HAL:insu-03668365v1 2023-12-17T10:25:00+01:00 Summer predictions of Arctic sea ice edge in multi-model seasonal re-forecasts Batté, Lauriane Välisuo, Ilona Chevallier, Matthieu Acosta Navarro, Juan C. Ortega, Pablo Smith, Doug Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Météo-France 2020 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03668365 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05273-8 en eng HAL CCSD Springer Verlag info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-020-05273-8 insu-03668365 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03668365 BIBCODE: 2020ClDy.54.5013B doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05273-8 ISSN: 0930-7575 EISSN: 1432-0894 Climate Dynamics https://insu.hal.science/insu-03668365 Climate Dynamics, 2020, 54, pp.5013-5029. ⟨10.1007/s00382-020-05273-8⟩ Seasonal forecasting Sea ice Arctic Climate prediction [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2020 ftutoulouse3hal https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05273-8 2023-11-22T17:50:09Z International audience In this study, the forecast quality of 1993-2014 summer seasonal predictions of five global coupled models, of which three are operational seasonal forecasting systems contributing to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), is assessed for Arctic sea ice. Beyond the Pan-Arctic sea ice concentration and extent deterministic re-forecast assessments, we use sea ice edge error metrics such as the Integrated Ice Edge Error (IIEE) and Spatial Probability Score (SPS) to evaluate the advantages of a multi-model approach. Skill in forecasting the September sea ice minimum from late April to early May start dates is very limited, and only one model shows significant correlation skill over the period when removing the linear trend in total sea ice extent. After bias and trend-adjusting the sea ice concentration data, we find quite similar results between the different systems in terms of ice edge forecast errors. The highest values of September ice edge error in the 1993-2014 period are found for the sea ice minima years (2007 and 2012), mainly due to a clear overestimation of the total extent. Further analyses of deterministic and probabilistic skill over the Barents-Kara, Laptev-East Siberian and Beaufort-Chukchi regions provide insight on differences in model performance. For all skill metrics considered, the multi-model ensemble, whether grouping all five systems or only the three operational C3S systems, performs among the best models for each forecast time, therefore confirming the interest of multi-system initiatives building on model diversity for providing the best forecasts. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Chukchi Climate change Kara-Laptev laptev Sea ice Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier: HAL-UPS Arctic Climate Dynamics 54 11-12 5013 5029 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier: HAL-UPS |
op_collection_id |
ftutoulouse3hal |
language |
English |
topic |
Seasonal forecasting Sea ice Arctic Climate prediction [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Seasonal forecasting Sea ice Arctic Climate prediction [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences Batté, Lauriane Välisuo, Ilona Chevallier, Matthieu Acosta Navarro, Juan C. Ortega, Pablo Smith, Doug Summer predictions of Arctic sea ice edge in multi-model seasonal re-forecasts |
topic_facet |
Seasonal forecasting Sea ice Arctic Climate prediction [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
description |
International audience In this study, the forecast quality of 1993-2014 summer seasonal predictions of five global coupled models, of which three are operational seasonal forecasting systems contributing to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), is assessed for Arctic sea ice. Beyond the Pan-Arctic sea ice concentration and extent deterministic re-forecast assessments, we use sea ice edge error metrics such as the Integrated Ice Edge Error (IIEE) and Spatial Probability Score (SPS) to evaluate the advantages of a multi-model approach. Skill in forecasting the September sea ice minimum from late April to early May start dates is very limited, and only one model shows significant correlation skill over the period when removing the linear trend in total sea ice extent. After bias and trend-adjusting the sea ice concentration data, we find quite similar results between the different systems in terms of ice edge forecast errors. The highest values of September ice edge error in the 1993-2014 period are found for the sea ice minima years (2007 and 2012), mainly due to a clear overestimation of the total extent. Further analyses of deterministic and probabilistic skill over the Barents-Kara, Laptev-East Siberian and Beaufort-Chukchi regions provide insight on differences in model performance. For all skill metrics considered, the multi-model ensemble, whether grouping all five systems or only the three operational C3S systems, performs among the best models for each forecast time, therefore confirming the interest of multi-system initiatives building on model diversity for providing the best forecasts. |
author2 |
Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Météo-France |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Batté, Lauriane Välisuo, Ilona Chevallier, Matthieu Acosta Navarro, Juan C. Ortega, Pablo Smith, Doug |
author_facet |
Batté, Lauriane Välisuo, Ilona Chevallier, Matthieu Acosta Navarro, Juan C. Ortega, Pablo Smith, Doug |
author_sort |
Batté, Lauriane |
title |
Summer predictions of Arctic sea ice edge in multi-model seasonal re-forecasts |
title_short |
Summer predictions of Arctic sea ice edge in multi-model seasonal re-forecasts |
title_full |
Summer predictions of Arctic sea ice edge in multi-model seasonal re-forecasts |
title_fullStr |
Summer predictions of Arctic sea ice edge in multi-model seasonal re-forecasts |
title_full_unstemmed |
Summer predictions of Arctic sea ice edge in multi-model seasonal re-forecasts |
title_sort |
summer predictions of arctic sea ice edge in multi-model seasonal re-forecasts |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://insu.hal.science/insu-03668365 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05273-8 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Chukchi Climate change Kara-Laptev laptev Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Chukchi Climate change Kara-Laptev laptev Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 0930-7575 EISSN: 1432-0894 Climate Dynamics https://insu.hal.science/insu-03668365 Climate Dynamics, 2020, 54, pp.5013-5029. ⟨10.1007/s00382-020-05273-8⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-020-05273-8 insu-03668365 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03668365 BIBCODE: 2020ClDy.54.5013B doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05273-8 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05273-8 |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
54 |
container_issue |
11-12 |
container_start_page |
5013 |
op_container_end_page |
5029 |
_version_ |
1785572289996128256 |