Weakening of springtime Arctic ozone depletion with climate change
International audience Abstract. In the Arctic stratosphere, the combination of chemical ozone depletion by halogenated ozone-depleting substances (hODSs) and dynamic fluctuations can lead to severe ozone minima. These Arctic ozone minima are of great societal concern due to their health and climate...
Published in: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2023
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-04251785 https://hal.science/hal-04251785/document https://hal.science/hal-04251785/file/acp-23-10235-2023.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023 |
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Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier: HAL-UPS |
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English |
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[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere Friedel, Marina Chiodo, Gabriel Sukhodolov, Timofei Keeble, James Peter, Thomas Seeber, Svenja Stenke, Andrea Akiyoshi, Hideharu Rozanov, Eugene Plummer, David Jöckel, Patrick Zeng, Guang Morgenstern, Olaf Josse, Béatrice Weakening of springtime Arctic ozone depletion with climate change |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
description |
International audience Abstract. In the Arctic stratosphere, the combination of chemical ozone depletion by halogenated ozone-depleting substances (hODSs) and dynamic fluctuations can lead to severe ozone minima. These Arctic ozone minima are of great societal concern due to their health and climate impacts. Owing to the success of the Montreal Protocol, hODSs in the stratosphere are gradually declining, resulting in a recovery of the ozone layer. On the other hand, continued greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions cool the stratosphere, possibly enhancing the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) and, thus, enabling more efficient chemical ozone destruction. Other processes, such as the acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation, also affect stratospheric temperatures, further complicating the picture. Therefore, it is currently unclear whether major Arctic ozone minima will still occur at the end of the 21st century despite decreasing hODSs. We have examined this question for different emission pathways using simulations conducted within the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1 and CCMI-2022) and found large differences in the models' ability to simulate the magnitude of ozone minima in the present-day climate. Models with a generally too-cold polar stratosphere (cold bias) produce pronounced ozone minima under present-day climate conditions because they simulate more PSCs and, thus, high concentrations of active chlorine species (ClOx). These models predict the largest decrease in ozone minima in the future. Conversely, models with a warm polar stratosphere (warm bias) have the smallest sensitivity of ozone minima to future changes in hODS and GHG concentrations. As a result, the scatter among models in terms of the magnitude of Arctic spring ozone minima will decrease in the future. Overall, these results suggest that Arctic ozone minima will become weaker over the next decades, largely due to the decline in hODS abundances. We note that none of the models analysed here project a notable increase ... |
author2 |
Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Friedel, Marina Chiodo, Gabriel Sukhodolov, Timofei Keeble, James Peter, Thomas Seeber, Svenja Stenke, Andrea Akiyoshi, Hideharu Rozanov, Eugene Plummer, David Jöckel, Patrick Zeng, Guang Morgenstern, Olaf Josse, Béatrice |
author_facet |
Friedel, Marina Chiodo, Gabriel Sukhodolov, Timofei Keeble, James Peter, Thomas Seeber, Svenja Stenke, Andrea Akiyoshi, Hideharu Rozanov, Eugene Plummer, David Jöckel, Patrick Zeng, Guang Morgenstern, Olaf Josse, Béatrice |
author_sort |
Friedel, Marina |
title |
Weakening of springtime Arctic ozone depletion with climate change |
title_short |
Weakening of springtime Arctic ozone depletion with climate change |
title_full |
Weakening of springtime Arctic ozone depletion with climate change |
title_fullStr |
Weakening of springtime Arctic ozone depletion with climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Weakening of springtime Arctic ozone depletion with climate change |
title_sort |
weakening of springtime arctic ozone depletion with climate change |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-04251785 https://hal.science/hal-04251785/document https://hal.science/hal-04251785/file/acp-23-10235-2023.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023 |
genre |
Climate change |
genre_facet |
Climate change |
op_source |
ISSN: 1680-7316 EISSN: 1680-7324 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics https://hal.science/hal-04251785 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2023, 23 (17), pp.10235-10254. ⟨10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023 hal-04251785 https://hal.science/hal-04251785 https://hal.science/hal-04251785/document https://hal.science/hal-04251785/file/acp-23-10235-2023.pdf doi:10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
23 |
container_issue |
17 |
container_start_page |
10235 |
op_container_end_page |
10254 |
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1810439702393651200 |
spelling |
ftutoulouse3hal:oai:HAL:hal-04251785v1 2024-09-15T18:02:14+00:00 Weakening of springtime Arctic ozone depletion with climate change Friedel, Marina Chiodo, Gabriel Sukhodolov, Timofei Keeble, James Peter, Thomas Seeber, Svenja Stenke, Andrea Akiyoshi, Hideharu Rozanov, Eugene Plummer, David Jöckel, Patrick Zeng, Guang Morgenstern, Olaf Josse, Béatrice Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2023 https://hal.science/hal-04251785 https://hal.science/hal-04251785/document https://hal.science/hal-04251785/file/acp-23-10235-2023.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023 en eng HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023 hal-04251785 https://hal.science/hal-04251785 https://hal.science/hal-04251785/document https://hal.science/hal-04251785/file/acp-23-10235-2023.pdf doi:10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1680-7316 EISSN: 1680-7324 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics https://hal.science/hal-04251785 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2023, 23 (17), pp.10235-10254. ⟨10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023⟩ [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2023 ftutoulouse3hal https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023 2024-06-25T00:05:42Z International audience Abstract. In the Arctic stratosphere, the combination of chemical ozone depletion by halogenated ozone-depleting substances (hODSs) and dynamic fluctuations can lead to severe ozone minima. These Arctic ozone minima are of great societal concern due to their health and climate impacts. Owing to the success of the Montreal Protocol, hODSs in the stratosphere are gradually declining, resulting in a recovery of the ozone layer. On the other hand, continued greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions cool the stratosphere, possibly enhancing the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) and, thus, enabling more efficient chemical ozone destruction. Other processes, such as the acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation, also affect stratospheric temperatures, further complicating the picture. Therefore, it is currently unclear whether major Arctic ozone minima will still occur at the end of the 21st century despite decreasing hODSs. We have examined this question for different emission pathways using simulations conducted within the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1 and CCMI-2022) and found large differences in the models' ability to simulate the magnitude of ozone minima in the present-day climate. Models with a generally too-cold polar stratosphere (cold bias) produce pronounced ozone minima under present-day climate conditions because they simulate more PSCs and, thus, high concentrations of active chlorine species (ClOx). These models predict the largest decrease in ozone minima in the future. Conversely, models with a warm polar stratosphere (warm bias) have the smallest sensitivity of ozone minima to future changes in hODS and GHG concentrations. As a result, the scatter among models in terms of the magnitude of Arctic spring ozone minima will decrease in the future. Overall, these results suggest that Arctic ozone minima will become weaker over the next decades, largely due to the decline in hODS abundances. We note that none of the models analysed here project a notable increase ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Climate change Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier: HAL-UPS Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 23 17 10235 10254 |