An ensemble of state-of-the-art ash dispersion models: towards probabilistic forecasts to increase the resilience of air traffic against volcanic eruptions
International audience Abstract. High-quality volcanic ash forecasts are crucial to minimize the economic impact of volcanic hazards on air traffic. Decision-making is usually based on numerical dispersion modelling with only one model realization. Given the inherent uncertainty of such an approach,...
Published in: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2021
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03484552 https://hal.science/hal-03484552/document https://hal.science/hal-03484552/file/nhess-21-2973-2021.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021 |
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openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier: HAL-UPS |
op_collection_id |
ftutoulouse3hal |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere Plu, Matthieu Scherllin-Pirscher, Barbara Arnold Arias, Delia Baro, Rocio Bigeard, Guillaume Bugliaro, Luca Carvalho, Ana El Amraoui, Laaziz Eschbacher, Kurt Hirtl, Marcus Maurer, Christian Mulder, Marie Piontek, Dennis Robertson, Lennart Rokitansky, Carl-Herbert Zobl, Fritz Zopp, Raimund An ensemble of state-of-the-art ash dispersion models: towards probabilistic forecasts to increase the resilience of air traffic against volcanic eruptions |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
description |
International audience Abstract. High-quality volcanic ash forecasts are crucial to minimize the economic impact of volcanic hazards on air traffic. Decision-making is usually based on numerical dispersion modelling with only one model realization. Given the inherent uncertainty of such an approach, a multi-model multi-source term ensemble has been designed and evaluated for the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in May 2010. Its use for flight planning is discussed. Two multi-model ensembles were built: the first is based on the output of four dispersion models and their own implementation of ash ejection. All a priori model source terms were constrained by observational evidence of the volcanic ash cloud top as a function of time. The second ensemble is based on the same four dispersion models, which were run with three additional source terms: (i) a source term obtained from a model background constrained with satellite data (a posteriori source term), (ii) its lower-bound estimate and (iii) its upper-bound estimate. The a priori ensemble gives valuable information about the probability of ash dispersion during the early phase of the eruption, when observational evidence is limited. However, its evaluation with observational data reveals lower quality compared to the second ensemble. While the second ensemble ash column load and ash horizontal location compare well to satellite observations, 3D ash concentrations are negatively biased. This might be caused by the vertical distribution of ash, which is too much diluted in all model runs, probably due to defaults in the a posteriori source term and vertical transport and/or diffusion processes in all models. Relevant products for the air traffic management are horizontal maps of ash concentration quantiles (median, 75 %, 99 %) at a finely resolved flight level grid as well as cross sections. These maps enable cost-optimized consideration of volcanic hazards and could result in much fewer flight cancellations, reroutings and traffic flow congestions. In addition, they ... |
author2 |
Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Plu, Matthieu Scherllin-Pirscher, Barbara Arnold Arias, Delia Baro, Rocio Bigeard, Guillaume Bugliaro, Luca Carvalho, Ana El Amraoui, Laaziz Eschbacher, Kurt Hirtl, Marcus Maurer, Christian Mulder, Marie Piontek, Dennis Robertson, Lennart Rokitansky, Carl-Herbert Zobl, Fritz Zopp, Raimund |
author_facet |
Plu, Matthieu Scherllin-Pirscher, Barbara Arnold Arias, Delia Baro, Rocio Bigeard, Guillaume Bugliaro, Luca Carvalho, Ana El Amraoui, Laaziz Eschbacher, Kurt Hirtl, Marcus Maurer, Christian Mulder, Marie Piontek, Dennis Robertson, Lennart Rokitansky, Carl-Herbert Zobl, Fritz Zopp, Raimund |
author_sort |
Plu, Matthieu |
title |
An ensemble of state-of-the-art ash dispersion models: towards probabilistic forecasts to increase the resilience of air traffic against volcanic eruptions |
title_short |
An ensemble of state-of-the-art ash dispersion models: towards probabilistic forecasts to increase the resilience of air traffic against volcanic eruptions |
title_full |
An ensemble of state-of-the-art ash dispersion models: towards probabilistic forecasts to increase the resilience of air traffic against volcanic eruptions |
title_fullStr |
An ensemble of state-of-the-art ash dispersion models: towards probabilistic forecasts to increase the resilience of air traffic against volcanic eruptions |
title_full_unstemmed |
An ensemble of state-of-the-art ash dispersion models: towards probabilistic forecasts to increase the resilience of air traffic against volcanic eruptions |
title_sort |
ensemble of state-of-the-art ash dispersion models: towards probabilistic forecasts to increase the resilience of air traffic against volcanic eruptions |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03484552 https://hal.science/hal-03484552/document https://hal.science/hal-03484552/file/nhess-21-2973-2021.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021 |
genre |
Eyjafjallajökull |
genre_facet |
Eyjafjallajökull |
op_source |
ISSN: 1561-8633 EISSN: 1684-9981 Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences https://hal.science/hal-03484552 Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2021, 21 (10), pp.2973-2992. ⟨10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021 hal-03484552 https://hal.science/hal-03484552 https://hal.science/hal-03484552/document https://hal.science/hal-03484552/file/nhess-21-2973-2021.pdf doi:10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021 |
container_title |
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
container_volume |
21 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
2973 |
op_container_end_page |
2992 |
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1785582825330704384 |
spelling |
ftutoulouse3hal:oai:HAL:hal-03484552v1 2023-12-17T10:29:56+01:00 An ensemble of state-of-the-art ash dispersion models: towards probabilistic forecasts to increase the resilience of air traffic against volcanic eruptions Plu, Matthieu Scherllin-Pirscher, Barbara Arnold Arias, Delia Baro, Rocio Bigeard, Guillaume Bugliaro, Luca Carvalho, Ana El Amraoui, Laaziz Eschbacher, Kurt Hirtl, Marcus Maurer, Christian Mulder, Marie Piontek, Dennis Robertson, Lennart Rokitansky, Carl-Herbert Zobl, Fritz Zopp, Raimund Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2021 https://hal.science/hal-03484552 https://hal.science/hal-03484552/document https://hal.science/hal-03484552/file/nhess-21-2973-2021.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021 en eng HAL CCSD Copernicus Publ. / European Geosciences Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021 hal-03484552 https://hal.science/hal-03484552 https://hal.science/hal-03484552/document https://hal.science/hal-03484552/file/nhess-21-2973-2021.pdf doi:10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1561-8633 EISSN: 1684-9981 Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences https://hal.science/hal-03484552 Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2021, 21 (10), pp.2973-2992. ⟨10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021⟩ [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2021 ftutoulouse3hal https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021 2023-11-22T17:55:03Z International audience Abstract. High-quality volcanic ash forecasts are crucial to minimize the economic impact of volcanic hazards on air traffic. Decision-making is usually based on numerical dispersion modelling with only one model realization. Given the inherent uncertainty of such an approach, a multi-model multi-source term ensemble has been designed and evaluated for the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in May 2010. Its use for flight planning is discussed. Two multi-model ensembles were built: the first is based on the output of four dispersion models and their own implementation of ash ejection. All a priori model source terms were constrained by observational evidence of the volcanic ash cloud top as a function of time. The second ensemble is based on the same four dispersion models, which were run with three additional source terms: (i) a source term obtained from a model background constrained with satellite data (a posteriori source term), (ii) its lower-bound estimate and (iii) its upper-bound estimate. The a priori ensemble gives valuable information about the probability of ash dispersion during the early phase of the eruption, when observational evidence is limited. However, its evaluation with observational data reveals lower quality compared to the second ensemble. While the second ensemble ash column load and ash horizontal location compare well to satellite observations, 3D ash concentrations are negatively biased. This might be caused by the vertical distribution of ash, which is too much diluted in all model runs, probably due to defaults in the a posteriori source term and vertical transport and/or diffusion processes in all models. Relevant products for the air traffic management are horizontal maps of ash concentration quantiles (median, 75 %, 99 %) at a finely resolved flight level grid as well as cross sections. These maps enable cost-optimized consideration of volcanic hazards and could result in much fewer flight cancellations, reroutings and traffic flow congestions. In addition, they ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Eyjafjallajökull Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier: HAL-UPS Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 21 10 2973 2992 |