An anatomy of Arctic sea ice forecast biases in the seasonal prediction system with EC-Earth
International audience The quality of initial conditions (ICs) in climate predictions controls the level of skill. Both the use of the latest high-quality observations and of the most efficient assimilation method are of paramount importance. Technical challenges make it frequent to assimilate obser...
Published in: | Climate Dynamics |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2021
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03413052 https://hal.science/hal-03413052/document https://hal.science/hal-03413052/file/Cruz-Garc%C3%ADa_et_al_2021.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05560-4 |
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ftutoulouse3hal:oai:HAL:hal-03413052v1 |
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openpolar |
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Open Polar |
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Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier: HAL-UPS |
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ftutoulouse3hal |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic Sea ice Bias Forecast Shock Initialization [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
spellingShingle |
Arctic Sea ice Bias Forecast Shock Initialization [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere Cruz-García, Rubén Ortega, Pablo Guemas, V. Acosta Navarro, Juan, C Massonnet, François Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, J An anatomy of Arctic sea ice forecast biases in the seasonal prediction system with EC-Earth |
topic_facet |
Arctic Sea ice Bias Forecast Shock Initialization [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
description |
International audience The quality of initial conditions (ICs) in climate predictions controls the level of skill. Both the use of the latest high-quality observations and of the most efficient assimilation method are of paramount importance. Technical challenges make it frequent to assimilate observational information independently in the various model components. Inconsistencies between the ICs obtained for the different model components can cause initialization shocks. In this study, we identify and quantify the contribution of the ICs inconsistency relative to the model inherent bias (in which the Arctic is generally too warm) to the development of sea ice concentration forecast biases in a seasonal prediction system with the EC-Earth general circulation model. We estimate that the ICs inconsistency dominates the development of forecast biases for as long as the first 24 (19) days of the forecasts initialized in May (November), while the development of model inherent bias dominates afterwards. The effect of ICs inconsistency is stronger in the Greenland Sea, in particular in November, and mostly associated to a mismatch between the sea ice and ocean ICs. In both May and November, the ICs inconsistency between the ocean and sea ice leads to sea ice melting, but it happens in November (May) in a context of sea ice expansion (shrinking). The ICs inconsistency tend to postpone (accelerate) the November (May) sea ice freezing (melting). Our findings suggest that the ICs inconsistency might have a larger impact than previously suspected. Detecting and filtering out this signal requires the use of high frequency data. |
author2 |
Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC-CNS) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL) Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats = Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA) ANR-17-MPGA-0003,ASET,Atmosphere - Sea ice Exchanges and Teleconections(2017) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Cruz-García, Rubén Ortega, Pablo Guemas, V. Acosta Navarro, Juan, C Massonnet, François Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, J |
author_facet |
Cruz-García, Rubén Ortega, Pablo Guemas, V. Acosta Navarro, Juan, C Massonnet, François Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, J |
author_sort |
Cruz-García, Rubén |
title |
An anatomy of Arctic sea ice forecast biases in the seasonal prediction system with EC-Earth |
title_short |
An anatomy of Arctic sea ice forecast biases in the seasonal prediction system with EC-Earth |
title_full |
An anatomy of Arctic sea ice forecast biases in the seasonal prediction system with EC-Earth |
title_fullStr |
An anatomy of Arctic sea ice forecast biases in the seasonal prediction system with EC-Earth |
title_full_unstemmed |
An anatomy of Arctic sea ice forecast biases in the seasonal prediction system with EC-Earth |
title_sort |
anatomy of arctic sea ice forecast biases in the seasonal prediction system with ec-earth |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03413052 https://hal.science/hal-03413052/document https://hal.science/hal-03413052/file/Cruz-Garc%C3%ADa_et_al_2021.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05560-4 |
genre |
Greenland Greenland Sea Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Greenland Greenland Sea Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 0930-7575 EISSN: 1432-0894 Climate Dynamics https://hal.science/hal-03413052 Climate Dynamics, 2021, 56 (5-6), pp.1799 - 1813. ⟨10.1007/s00382-020-05560-4⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-020-05560-4 hal-03413052 https://hal.science/hal-03413052 https://hal.science/hal-03413052/document https://hal.science/hal-03413052/file/Cruz-Garc%C3%ADa_et_al_2021.pdf doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05560-4 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05560-4 |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
56 |
container_issue |
5-6 |
container_start_page |
1799 |
op_container_end_page |
1813 |
_version_ |
1810447682093711360 |
spelling |
ftutoulouse3hal:oai:HAL:hal-03413052v1 2024-09-15T18:10:05+00:00 An anatomy of Arctic sea ice forecast biases in the seasonal prediction system with EC-Earth Cruz-García, Rubén Ortega, Pablo Guemas, V. Acosta Navarro, Juan, C Massonnet, François Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, J Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC-CNS) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL) Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats = Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA) ANR-17-MPGA-0003,ASET,Atmosphere - Sea ice Exchanges and Teleconections(2017) 2021-01-01 https://hal.science/hal-03413052 https://hal.science/hal-03413052/document https://hal.science/hal-03413052/file/Cruz-Garc%C3%ADa_et_al_2021.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05560-4 en eng HAL CCSD Springer Verlag info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-020-05560-4 hal-03413052 https://hal.science/hal-03413052 https://hal.science/hal-03413052/document https://hal.science/hal-03413052/file/Cruz-Garc%C3%ADa_et_al_2021.pdf doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05560-4 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0930-7575 EISSN: 1432-0894 Climate Dynamics https://hal.science/hal-03413052 Climate Dynamics, 2021, 56 (5-6), pp.1799 - 1813. ⟨10.1007/s00382-020-05560-4⟩ Arctic Sea ice Bias Forecast Shock Initialization [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2021 ftutoulouse3hal https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05560-4 2024-06-25T00:11:19Z International audience The quality of initial conditions (ICs) in climate predictions controls the level of skill. Both the use of the latest high-quality observations and of the most efficient assimilation method are of paramount importance. Technical challenges make it frequent to assimilate observational information independently in the various model components. Inconsistencies between the ICs obtained for the different model components can cause initialization shocks. In this study, we identify and quantify the contribution of the ICs inconsistency relative to the model inherent bias (in which the Arctic is generally too warm) to the development of sea ice concentration forecast biases in a seasonal prediction system with the EC-Earth general circulation model. We estimate that the ICs inconsistency dominates the development of forecast biases for as long as the first 24 (19) days of the forecasts initialized in May (November), while the development of model inherent bias dominates afterwards. The effect of ICs inconsistency is stronger in the Greenland Sea, in particular in November, and mostly associated to a mismatch between the sea ice and ocean ICs. In both May and November, the ICs inconsistency between the ocean and sea ice leads to sea ice melting, but it happens in November (May) in a context of sea ice expansion (shrinking). The ICs inconsistency tend to postpone (accelerate) the November (May) sea ice freezing (melting). Our findings suggest that the ICs inconsistency might have a larger impact than previously suspected. Detecting and filtering out this signal requires the use of high frequency data. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Greenland Sea Sea ice Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier: HAL-UPS Climate Dynamics 56 5-6 1799 1813 |