A global probabilistic study of the ocean heat content low-frequency variability: Atmospheric forcing versus oceanic chaos
International audience A global 1/4 ∘ ocean/sea ice 50-member ensemble simulation is used to disentangle the low-frequency imprints of the atmospherically forced oceanic variability and of the chaotic intrinsic oceanic variability (IOV) on the large-scale (10 ∘ × 10 ∘) ocean heat content (OHC) betwe...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03003527 https://hal.science/hal-03003527v2/document https://hal.science/hal-03003527v2/file/2017GL073026.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073026 |
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ftutoulouse3hal:oai:HAL:hal-03003527v2 2024-09-15T18:35:28+00:00 A global probabilistic study of the ocean heat content low-frequency variability: Atmospheric forcing versus oceanic chaos Sérazin, Guillaume Jaymond, Alexandre Leroux, Stephanie Penduff, Thierry Bessières, Laurent Llovel, W. Barnier, Bernard Molines, Jean-Marc Terray, Laurent Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes 2016-2019 (UGA 2016-2019 ) Institut de Mathématiques de Bordeaux (IMB) Université Bordeaux Segalen - Bordeaux 2-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Université de Bordeaux (UB)-Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux (Bordeaux INP)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology (SIO) Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow (RAS) Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS) 2017-06-16 https://hal.science/hal-03003527 https://hal.science/hal-03003527v2/document https://hal.science/hal-03003527v2/file/2017GL073026.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073026 en eng HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/2017GL073026 hal-03003527 https://hal.science/hal-03003527 https://hal.science/hal-03003527v2/document https://hal.science/hal-03003527v2/file/2017GL073026.pdf doi:10.1002/2017GL073026 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0094-8276 EISSN: 1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters https://hal.science/hal-03003527 Geophysical Research Letters, 2017, 44 (11), pp.5580-5589. ⟨10.1002/2017GL073026⟩ [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2017 ftutoulouse3hal https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073026 2024-06-25T00:12:59Z International audience A global 1/4 ∘ ocean/sea ice 50-member ensemble simulation is used to disentangle the low-frequency imprints of the atmospherically forced oceanic variability and of the chaotic intrinsic oceanic variability (IOV) on the large-scale (10 ∘ × 10 ∘) ocean heat content (OHC) between 1980 and 2010. The IOV explains most of the interannual-to-decadal large-scale OHC variance over substantial fractions of the global ocean area that increase with depth: 9%, 22%, and 31% in the 0-700 m, 700-2000 m and 2000 m bottom layers, respectively. Such areas concern principally eddy-active regions, mostly found in the Southern Ocean and in western boundary current extensions, and also concern the subtropical gyres at intermediate and deep levels. The oceanic chaos may also induce random multidecadal fluctuations so that large-scale regional OHC trends computed on the 1980-2010 period cannot be unambiguously attributed to the atmospheric forcing in several oceanic basins at various depths. These results are likely to raise detection and attribution issues from real observations. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Southern Ocean Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier: HAL-UPS Geophysical Research Letters 44 11 5580 5589 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier: HAL-UPS |
op_collection_id |
ftutoulouse3hal |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere Sérazin, Guillaume Jaymond, Alexandre Leroux, Stephanie Penduff, Thierry Bessières, Laurent Llovel, W. Barnier, Bernard Molines, Jean-Marc Terray, Laurent A global probabilistic study of the ocean heat content low-frequency variability: Atmospheric forcing versus oceanic chaos |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
description |
International audience A global 1/4 ∘ ocean/sea ice 50-member ensemble simulation is used to disentangle the low-frequency imprints of the atmospherically forced oceanic variability and of the chaotic intrinsic oceanic variability (IOV) on the large-scale (10 ∘ × 10 ∘) ocean heat content (OHC) between 1980 and 2010. The IOV explains most of the interannual-to-decadal large-scale OHC variance over substantial fractions of the global ocean area that increase with depth: 9%, 22%, and 31% in the 0-700 m, 700-2000 m and 2000 m bottom layers, respectively. Such areas concern principally eddy-active regions, mostly found in the Southern Ocean and in western boundary current extensions, and also concern the subtropical gyres at intermediate and deep levels. The oceanic chaos may also induce random multidecadal fluctuations so that large-scale regional OHC trends computed on the 1980-2010 period cannot be unambiguously attributed to the atmospheric forcing in several oceanic basins at various depths. These results are likely to raise detection and attribution issues from real observations. |
author2 |
Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes 2016-2019 (UGA 2016-2019 ) Institut de Mathématiques de Bordeaux (IMB) Université Bordeaux Segalen - Bordeaux 2-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Université de Bordeaux (UB)-Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux (Bordeaux INP)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology (SIO) Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow (RAS) Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sérazin, Guillaume Jaymond, Alexandre Leroux, Stephanie Penduff, Thierry Bessières, Laurent Llovel, W. Barnier, Bernard Molines, Jean-Marc Terray, Laurent |
author_facet |
Sérazin, Guillaume Jaymond, Alexandre Leroux, Stephanie Penduff, Thierry Bessières, Laurent Llovel, W. Barnier, Bernard Molines, Jean-Marc Terray, Laurent |
author_sort |
Sérazin, Guillaume |
title |
A global probabilistic study of the ocean heat content low-frequency variability: Atmospheric forcing versus oceanic chaos |
title_short |
A global probabilistic study of the ocean heat content low-frequency variability: Atmospheric forcing versus oceanic chaos |
title_full |
A global probabilistic study of the ocean heat content low-frequency variability: Atmospheric forcing versus oceanic chaos |
title_fullStr |
A global probabilistic study of the ocean heat content low-frequency variability: Atmospheric forcing versus oceanic chaos |
title_full_unstemmed |
A global probabilistic study of the ocean heat content low-frequency variability: Atmospheric forcing versus oceanic chaos |
title_sort |
global probabilistic study of the ocean heat content low-frequency variability: atmospheric forcing versus oceanic chaos |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03003527 https://hal.science/hal-03003527v2/document https://hal.science/hal-03003527v2/file/2017GL073026.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073026 |
genre |
Sea ice Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Sea ice Southern Ocean |
op_source |
ISSN: 0094-8276 EISSN: 1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters https://hal.science/hal-03003527 Geophysical Research Letters, 2017, 44 (11), pp.5580-5589. ⟨10.1002/2017GL073026⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/2017GL073026 hal-03003527 https://hal.science/hal-03003527 https://hal.science/hal-03003527v2/document https://hal.science/hal-03003527v2/file/2017GL073026.pdf doi:10.1002/2017GL073026 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073026 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
44 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
5580 |
op_container_end_page |
5589 |
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1810478656400654336 |