Contributions of Atmospheric Forcing and Chaotic Ocean Variability to Regional Sea Level Trends Over 1993–2015
International audience A global ¼°ocean/sea-ice 50-member ensemble simulation is analyzed to disentangle the imprints of the atmospheric forcing and the chaotic ocean variability on regional sea level trends over the satellite altimetry period. We find that the chaotic ocean variability may mask atm...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2018
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03003525 https://hal.science/hal-03003525/document https://hal.science/hal-03003525/file/2018GL080838.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080838 |
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Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier: HAL-UPS |
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ftutoulouse3hal |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere Llovel, W. Penduff, Thierry Meyssignac, Benoit Molines, Jean‐marc Terray, Laurent Bessières, Laurent Barnier, Bernard Contributions of Atmospheric Forcing and Chaotic Ocean Variability to Regional Sea Level Trends Over 1993–2015 |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
description |
International audience A global ¼°ocean/sea-ice 50-member ensemble simulation is analyzed to disentangle the imprints of the atmospheric forcing and the chaotic ocean variability on regional sea level trends over the satellite altimetry period. We find that the chaotic ocean variability may mask atmospherically forced regional sea level trends over 38% of the global ocean area from 1993 to 2015, and over 47% of this area from 2005 to 2015. These regions are located in the western boundary currents, in the Southern Ocean and in the subtropical gyres. While these results do not question the anthropogenic origin of global mean sea level rise, they give new insights into the intrinsically oceanic versus atmospheric forcing of regional sea level trends and provide new constraints on the measurement time required to attribute regional sea level trends to the atmospheric forcing or to climate change. Plain Language Summary As a direct consequence of anthropogenic influences, global mean sea level rises in response to ocean warming and land ice melting. Since the early 1990s, satellite altimetry has revealed large regional contrasts in sea level trends, controlled by temperature and salinity changes, oceanic processes and atmospheric forcing. Using an ensemble of forced eddying ocean simulations, we show that regional sea level trends over the altimetric period are only partly determined by the atmospheric evolution (both natural and anthropogenic): nonlinear ocean processes produce additional sea level trends that are inherently random, which can compete in certain regions with the externally forced trends. These results do not question the existence of global and regional sea level trends, but suggest that sea level trends may not be unambiguously attributed to external causes in certain regions. |
author2 |
Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes 2016-2019 (UGA 2016-2019 ) GOHS Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS) P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology (SIO) Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow (RAS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Llovel, W. Penduff, Thierry Meyssignac, Benoit Molines, Jean‐marc Terray, Laurent Bessières, Laurent Barnier, Bernard |
author_facet |
Llovel, W. Penduff, Thierry Meyssignac, Benoit Molines, Jean‐marc Terray, Laurent Bessières, Laurent Barnier, Bernard |
author_sort |
Llovel, W. |
title |
Contributions of Atmospheric Forcing and Chaotic Ocean Variability to Regional Sea Level Trends Over 1993–2015 |
title_short |
Contributions of Atmospheric Forcing and Chaotic Ocean Variability to Regional Sea Level Trends Over 1993–2015 |
title_full |
Contributions of Atmospheric Forcing and Chaotic Ocean Variability to Regional Sea Level Trends Over 1993–2015 |
title_fullStr |
Contributions of Atmospheric Forcing and Chaotic Ocean Variability to Regional Sea Level Trends Over 1993–2015 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Contributions of Atmospheric Forcing and Chaotic Ocean Variability to Regional Sea Level Trends Over 1993–2015 |
title_sort |
contributions of atmospheric forcing and chaotic ocean variability to regional sea level trends over 1993–2015 |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03003525 https://hal.science/hal-03003525/document https://hal.science/hal-03003525/file/2018GL080838.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080838 |
genre |
Sea ice Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Sea ice Southern Ocean |
op_source |
ISSN: 0094-8276 EISSN: 1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters https://hal.science/hal-03003525 Geophysical Research Letters, 2018, 45 (24), ⟨10.1029/2018GL080838⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2018GL080838 hal-03003525 https://hal.science/hal-03003525 https://hal.science/hal-03003525/document https://hal.science/hal-03003525/file/2018GL080838.pdf doi:10.1029/2018GL080838 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080838 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
45 |
container_issue |
24 |
_version_ |
1797569200562110464 |
spelling |
ftutoulouse3hal:oai:HAL:hal-03003525v1 2024-04-28T08:37:59+00:00 Contributions of Atmospheric Forcing and Chaotic Ocean Variability to Regional Sea Level Trends Over 1993–2015 Llovel, W. Penduff, Thierry Meyssignac, Benoit Molines, Jean‐marc Terray, Laurent Bessières, Laurent Barnier, Bernard Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes 2016-2019 (UGA 2016-2019 ) GOHS Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS) P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology (SIO) Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow (RAS) 2018-12-28 https://hal.science/hal-03003525 https://hal.science/hal-03003525/document https://hal.science/hal-03003525/file/2018GL080838.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080838 en eng HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2018GL080838 hal-03003525 https://hal.science/hal-03003525 https://hal.science/hal-03003525/document https://hal.science/hal-03003525/file/2018GL080838.pdf doi:10.1029/2018GL080838 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0094-8276 EISSN: 1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters https://hal.science/hal-03003525 Geophysical Research Letters, 2018, 45 (24), ⟨10.1029/2018GL080838⟩ [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2018 ftutoulouse3hal https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080838 2024-04-11T00:23:21Z International audience A global ¼°ocean/sea-ice 50-member ensemble simulation is analyzed to disentangle the imprints of the atmospheric forcing and the chaotic ocean variability on regional sea level trends over the satellite altimetry period. We find that the chaotic ocean variability may mask atmospherically forced regional sea level trends over 38% of the global ocean area from 1993 to 2015, and over 47% of this area from 2005 to 2015. These regions are located in the western boundary currents, in the Southern Ocean and in the subtropical gyres. While these results do not question the anthropogenic origin of global mean sea level rise, they give new insights into the intrinsically oceanic versus atmospheric forcing of regional sea level trends and provide new constraints on the measurement time required to attribute regional sea level trends to the atmospheric forcing or to climate change. Plain Language Summary As a direct consequence of anthropogenic influences, global mean sea level rises in response to ocean warming and land ice melting. Since the early 1990s, satellite altimetry has revealed large regional contrasts in sea level trends, controlled by temperature and salinity changes, oceanic processes and atmospheric forcing. Using an ensemble of forced eddying ocean simulations, we show that regional sea level trends over the altimetric period are only partly determined by the atmospheric evolution (both natural and anthropogenic): nonlinear ocean processes produce additional sea level trends that are inherently random, which can compete in certain regions with the externally forced trends. These results do not question the existence of global and regional sea level trends, but suggest that sea level trends may not be unambiguously attributed to external causes in certain regions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Southern Ocean Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier: HAL-UPS Geophysical Research Letters 45 24 |