Near-Surface Salinity as Nature's Rain Gauge to Detect Human Influence on the Tropical Water Cycle
International audience Changes in the global water cycle are expected as a result of anthropogenic climate change, but large uncertainties exist in how these changes will be manifest regionally. This is especially the case over the tropical oceans, where observed estimates of precipitation and evapo...
Published in: | Journal of Climate |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2012
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-00758290 https://hal.science/hal-00758290/document https://hal.science/hal-00758290/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Near-Surface%20Salinity%20as%20Nature%25u2019s%20Rain%20Gauge%20to%20Detect%20Human%20Influence%20on%20the%20Tropical%20Water%20Cycle.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-10-05025.1 |
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ftutoulouse3hal:oai:HAL:hal-00758290v1 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier: HAL-UPS |
op_collection_id |
ftutoulouse3hal |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes Terray, Laurent Corre, Lola Cravatte, Sophie Delcroix, Thierry Reverdin, Gilles Ribes, Aurélien Near-Surface Salinity as Nature's Rain Gauge to Detect Human Influence on the Tropical Water Cycle |
topic_facet |
[SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
description |
International audience Changes in the global water cycle are expected as a result of anthropogenic climate change, but large uncertainties exist in how these changes will be manifest regionally. This is especially the case over the tropical oceans, where observed estimates of precipitation and evaporation disagree considerably. An alternative approach is to examine changes in near-surface salinity. Datasets of observed tropical Pacific and Atlantic near-surface salinity combined with climate model simulations are used to assess the possible causes and significance of salinity changes over the late twentieth century. Two different detection methodologies are then applied to evaluate the extent to which observed large-scale changes in near-surface salinity can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change.Basin-averaged observed changes are shown to enhance salinity geographical contrasts between the two basins: the Pacific is getting fresher and the Atlantic saltier. While the observed Pacific and interbasin-averaged salinity changes exceed the range of internal variability provided from control climate simulations, Atlantic changes are within the model estimates. Spatial patterns of salinity change, including a fresher western Pacific warm pool and a saltier subtropical North Atlantic, are not consistent with internal climate variability. They are similar to anthropogenic response patterns obtained from transient twentieth- and twenty-first-century integrations, therefore suggesting a discernible human influence on the late twentieth-century evolution of the tropical marine water cycle. Changes in the tropical and midlatitudes Atlantic salinity levels are not found to be significant compared to internal variability. Implications of the results for understanding of the recent and future marine tropical water cycle changes are discussed. |
author2 |
Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS) Océan du Large et Variabilité Climatique (OLVAC) Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Échanges dans la couche de surface : des pôles aux tropiques (SURF) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Terray, Laurent Corre, Lola Cravatte, Sophie Delcroix, Thierry Reverdin, Gilles Ribes, Aurélien |
author_facet |
Terray, Laurent Corre, Lola Cravatte, Sophie Delcroix, Thierry Reverdin, Gilles Ribes, Aurélien |
author_sort |
Terray, Laurent |
title |
Near-Surface Salinity as Nature's Rain Gauge to Detect Human Influence on the Tropical Water Cycle |
title_short |
Near-Surface Salinity as Nature's Rain Gauge to Detect Human Influence on the Tropical Water Cycle |
title_full |
Near-Surface Salinity as Nature's Rain Gauge to Detect Human Influence on the Tropical Water Cycle |
title_fullStr |
Near-Surface Salinity as Nature's Rain Gauge to Detect Human Influence on the Tropical Water Cycle |
title_full_unstemmed |
Near-Surface Salinity as Nature's Rain Gauge to Detect Human Influence on the Tropical Water Cycle |
title_sort |
near-surface salinity as nature's rain gauge to detect human influence on the tropical water cycle |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-00758290 https://hal.science/hal-00758290/document https://hal.science/hal-00758290/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Near-Surface%20Salinity%20as%20Nature%25u2019s%20Rain%20Gauge%20to%20Detect%20Human%20Influence%20on%20the%20Tropical%20Water%20Cycle.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-10-05025.1 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://hal.science/hal-00758290 Journal of Climate, 2012, 25, pp.958-977. ⟨10.1175/JCLI-D-10-05025.1⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-10-05025.1 hal-00758290 https://hal.science/hal-00758290 https://hal.science/hal-00758290/document https://hal.science/hal-00758290/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Near-Surface%20Salinity%20as%20Nature%25u2019s%20Rain%20Gauge%20to%20Detect%20Human%20Influence%20on%20the%20Tropical%20Water%20Cycle.pdf BIBCODE: 2012JCli.25.958T doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-10-05025.1 WOS: 000299800500009 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-10-05025.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
25 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
958 |
op_container_end_page |
977 |
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1799485325497597952 |
spelling |
ftutoulouse3hal:oai:HAL:hal-00758290v1 2024-05-19T07:45:19+00:00 Near-Surface Salinity as Nature's Rain Gauge to Detect Human Influence on the Tropical Water Cycle Terray, Laurent Corre, Lola Cravatte, Sophie Delcroix, Thierry Reverdin, Gilles Ribes, Aurélien Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS) Océan du Large et Variabilité Climatique (OLVAC) Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Échanges dans la couche de surface : des pôles aux tropiques (SURF) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2012-02 https://hal.science/hal-00758290 https://hal.science/hal-00758290/document https://hal.science/hal-00758290/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Near-Surface%20Salinity%20as%20Nature%25u2019s%20Rain%20Gauge%20to%20Detect%20Human%20Influence%20on%20the%20Tropical%20Water%20Cycle.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-10-05025.1 en eng HAL CCSD American Meteorological Society info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-10-05025.1 hal-00758290 https://hal.science/hal-00758290 https://hal.science/hal-00758290/document https://hal.science/hal-00758290/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Near-Surface%20Salinity%20as%20Nature%25u2019s%20Rain%20Gauge%20to%20Detect%20Human%20Influence%20on%20the%20Tropical%20Water%20Cycle.pdf BIBCODE: 2012JCli.25.958T doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-10-05025.1 WOS: 000299800500009 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://hal.science/hal-00758290 Journal of Climate, 2012, 25, pp.958-977. ⟨10.1175/JCLI-D-10-05025.1⟩ [SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2012 ftutoulouse3hal https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-10-05025.1 2024-04-25T01:02:02Z International audience Changes in the global water cycle are expected as a result of anthropogenic climate change, but large uncertainties exist in how these changes will be manifest regionally. This is especially the case over the tropical oceans, where observed estimates of precipitation and evaporation disagree considerably. An alternative approach is to examine changes in near-surface salinity. Datasets of observed tropical Pacific and Atlantic near-surface salinity combined with climate model simulations are used to assess the possible causes and significance of salinity changes over the late twentieth century. Two different detection methodologies are then applied to evaluate the extent to which observed large-scale changes in near-surface salinity can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change.Basin-averaged observed changes are shown to enhance salinity geographical contrasts between the two basins: the Pacific is getting fresher and the Atlantic saltier. While the observed Pacific and interbasin-averaged salinity changes exceed the range of internal variability provided from control climate simulations, Atlantic changes are within the model estimates. Spatial patterns of salinity change, including a fresher western Pacific warm pool and a saltier subtropical North Atlantic, are not consistent with internal climate variability. They are similar to anthropogenic response patterns obtained from transient twentieth- and twenty-first-century integrations, therefore suggesting a discernible human influence on the late twentieth-century evolution of the tropical marine water cycle. Changes in the tropical and midlatitudes Atlantic salinity levels are not found to be significant compared to internal variability. Implications of the results for understanding of the recent and future marine tropical water cycle changes are discussed. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier: HAL-UPS Journal of Climate 25 3 958 977 |