Multimodel assessment of the factors driving stratospheric ozone evolution over the 21st century

• Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
• Main Authors: Oman, L. D., Plummer, D. A., Waugh, D. W., Austin, J., Scinocca, J. F., Douglass, A. R., Salawitch, R. J., Canty, T., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, Slimane, Braesicke, P., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M. P., Cugnet, David, Dhomse, S., Eyring, V., Frith, S., Hardiman, S. C., Kinnison, D. E., Lamarque, J.-F., Mancini, E., Marchand, Marion, Michou, M., Morgenstern, Olaf, Nakamura, T., Nielsen, J. E., Olivie, D., Pitari, G., Pyle, J., Rozanov, E., Shepherd, T. G., Shibata, K., Stolarski, R. S., Teyssedre, H., Tian, W., Yamashita, Y., Ziemke, J. R.
• Other Authors: Morton K. Blaustein Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences Baltimore, Johns Hopkins University (JHU), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), University of Maryland College Park, University of Maryland System, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), STRATO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), NCAS-Climate Cambridge, Department of Chemistry Cambridge, UK, University of Cambridge UK (CAM)-University of Cambridge UK (CAM), Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office Exeter, School of Earth and Environment Leeds (SEE), University of Leeds, DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre = DLR Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IPA), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling (DLR), Science Systems and Applications, Inc. Lanham (SSAI), National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR), University of L'Aquila Italy (UNIVAQ), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Lauder (NIWA), Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Department of Physics Toronto, University of Toronto, Meteorological Research Institute Tsukuba (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), NASA, MAP, ACMAP, Aura programs, NSF Large‐scale Climate Dynamics program., European Commission, European Project: 226365,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2008-1,RECONCILE(2009)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2010
• Subjects: CCMVal; Climate change; Stratospheric ozone; [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph]; Arctic
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-00528980; https://hal.science/hal-00528980/document; https://hal.science/hal-00528980/file/Oman_et_al-2010-Journal_of_Geophysical_Research__Solid_Earth_%281978-2012%29.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014362

International audience The evolution of stratospheric ozone from 1960 to 2100 is examined in simulations from 14 chemistry-climate models, driven by prescribed levels of halogens and greenhouse gases. There is general agreement among the models that total column ozone reached a minimum around year 2000 at all latitudes, projected to be followed by an increase over the first half of the 21st century. In the second half of the 21st century, ozone is projected to continue increasing, level off, or even decrease depending on the latitude. Separation into partial columns above and below 20 hPa reveals that these latitudinal differences are almost completely caused by differences in the model projections of ozone in the lower stratosphere. At all latitudes, upper stratospheric ozone increases throughout the 21st century and is projected to return to 1960 levels well before the end of the century, although there is a spread among models in the dates that ozone returns to specific historical values. We find decreasing halogens and declining upper atmospheric temperatures, driven by increasing greenhouse gases, contribute almost equally to increases in upper stratospheric ozone. In the tropical lower stratosphere, an increase in upwelling causes a steady decrease in ozone through the 21st century, and total column ozone does not return to 1960 levels in most of the models. In contrast, lower stratospheric and total column ozone in middle and high latitudes increases during the 21st century, returning to 1960 levels well before the end of the century in most models.