Potential Predictability of Net Primary Production in the Ocean
Interannual variations in marine net primary production (NPP) contribute to the variability of available living marine resources, as well as influence critical carbon cycle processes. Here we provide a global overview of near-term (1 to 10 years) potential predictability of marine NPP using a novel...
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ftutexasriogrand:oai:scholarworks.utrgv.edu:eems_fac-1082 2024-09-15T18:37:03+00:00 Potential Predictability of Net Primary Production in the Ocean Krumhardt, Kristen M. Lovenduski, Nicole S. Long, Matthew C. Luo, J. Y. Lindsay, K. Yeager, S. Harrison, Cheryl S. 2020-06-01T07:00:00Z application/pdf https://scholarworks.utrgv.edu/eems_fac/82 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GB006531 https://scholarworks.utrgv.edu/context/eems_fac/article/1082/viewcontent/2020__Krumhardt_2020_Potential_predictability_of_net_pri.pdf unknown ScholarWorks @ UTRGV https://scholarworks.utrgv.edu/eems_fac/82 doi:10.1029/2020GB006531 https://scholarworks.utrgv.edu/context/eems_fac/article/1082/viewcontent/2020__Krumhardt_2020_Potential_predictability_of_net_pri.pdf School of Earth, Environmental, and Marine Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations net primary production prediction Large Marine Ecosystems Earth Sciences Environmental Sciences Marine Biology text 2020 ftutexasriogrand https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GB006531 2024-07-17T03:41:29Z Interannual variations in marine net primary production (NPP) contribute to the variability of available living marine resources, as well as influence critical carbon cycle processes. Here we provide a global overview of near-term (1 to 10 years) potential predictability of marine NPP using a novel set of initialized retrospective decadal forecasts from an Earth System Model. Interannual variations in marine NPP are potentially predictable in many areas of the ocean 1 to 3 years in advance, from temperate waters to the tropics, showing a substantial improvement over a simple persistence forecast. However, some regions, such as the subpolar Southern Ocean, show low potential predictability.We analyze how bottom-up drivers of marine NPP (nutrients, light, and temperature) contribute to its predictability. Regions where NPP is primarily driven by the physical supply of nutrients (e.g., subtropics) retain higher potential predictability than high-latitude regions where NPP is controlled by light and/or temperature (e.g., the Southern Ocean).We further examine NPP predictability in the world's Large Marine Ecosystems. With a few exceptions, we show that initialized forecasts improve potential predictability of NPP in Large Marine Ecosystems over a persistence forecast and may aid to manage living marine resources. Text Southern Ocean Scholarworks@UTRGV (The University of Texas RioGrande Valley) Global Biogeochemical Cycles 34 6 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Scholarworks@UTRGV (The University of Texas RioGrande Valley) |
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ftutexasriogrand |
language |
unknown |
topic |
net primary production prediction Large Marine Ecosystems Earth Sciences Environmental Sciences Marine Biology |
spellingShingle |
net primary production prediction Large Marine Ecosystems Earth Sciences Environmental Sciences Marine Biology Krumhardt, Kristen M. Lovenduski, Nicole S. Long, Matthew C. Luo, J. Y. Lindsay, K. Yeager, S. Harrison, Cheryl S. Potential Predictability of Net Primary Production in the Ocean |
topic_facet |
net primary production prediction Large Marine Ecosystems Earth Sciences Environmental Sciences Marine Biology |
description |
Interannual variations in marine net primary production (NPP) contribute to the variability of available living marine resources, as well as influence critical carbon cycle processes. Here we provide a global overview of near-term (1 to 10 years) potential predictability of marine NPP using a novel set of initialized retrospective decadal forecasts from an Earth System Model. Interannual variations in marine NPP are potentially predictable in many areas of the ocean 1 to 3 years in advance, from temperate waters to the tropics, showing a substantial improvement over a simple persistence forecast. However, some regions, such as the subpolar Southern Ocean, show low potential predictability.We analyze how bottom-up drivers of marine NPP (nutrients, light, and temperature) contribute to its predictability. Regions where NPP is primarily driven by the physical supply of nutrients (e.g., subtropics) retain higher potential predictability than high-latitude regions where NPP is controlled by light and/or temperature (e.g., the Southern Ocean).We further examine NPP predictability in the world's Large Marine Ecosystems. With a few exceptions, we show that initialized forecasts improve potential predictability of NPP in Large Marine Ecosystems over a persistence forecast and may aid to manage living marine resources. |
format |
Text |
author |
Krumhardt, Kristen M. Lovenduski, Nicole S. Long, Matthew C. Luo, J. Y. Lindsay, K. Yeager, S. Harrison, Cheryl S. |
author_facet |
Krumhardt, Kristen M. Lovenduski, Nicole S. Long, Matthew C. Luo, J. Y. Lindsay, K. Yeager, S. Harrison, Cheryl S. |
author_sort |
Krumhardt, Kristen M. |
title |
Potential Predictability of Net Primary Production in the Ocean |
title_short |
Potential Predictability of Net Primary Production in the Ocean |
title_full |
Potential Predictability of Net Primary Production in the Ocean |
title_fullStr |
Potential Predictability of Net Primary Production in the Ocean |
title_full_unstemmed |
Potential Predictability of Net Primary Production in the Ocean |
title_sort |
potential predictability of net primary production in the ocean |
publisher |
ScholarWorks @ UTRGV |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://scholarworks.utrgv.edu/eems_fac/82 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GB006531 https://scholarworks.utrgv.edu/context/eems_fac/article/1082/viewcontent/2020__Krumhardt_2020_Potential_predictability_of_net_pri.pdf |
genre |
Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Southern Ocean |
op_source |
School of Earth, Environmental, and Marine Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations |
op_relation |
https://scholarworks.utrgv.edu/eems_fac/82 doi:10.1029/2020GB006531 https://scholarworks.utrgv.edu/context/eems_fac/article/1082/viewcontent/2020__Krumhardt_2020_Potential_predictability_of_net_pri.pdf |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GB006531 |
container_title |
Global Biogeochemical Cycles |
container_volume |
34 |
container_issue |
6 |
_version_ |
1810481366063644672 |