Comparing Resource Selection and Demographic Models for Predicting Animal Density
Habitat-based prediction of population density relies on relationships between landscape configuration (i.e., abundance of land-cover types) and equilibrium density. This may be accomplished by estimating resource selection probability functions (RSPFs) based on presence–absence data, or by relating...
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ftutahsudc:oai:digitalcommons.usu.edu:wild_facpub-3765 2023-05-15T13:13:40+02:00 Comparing Resource Selection and Demographic Models for Predicting Animal Density Street, Garrett M. Rodgers, Arthur R. Avgar, Tal Vennen, Lucas M. Vander Fryxell, John M. Wiley 2016-10-05T07:00:00Z https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/wild_facpub/2765 unknown Hosted by Utah State University Libraries https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/wild_facpub/2765 Wildland Resources Faculty Publications abundance aerial survey Alces carrying capacity demography habitat predictive model resource selection function Environmental Sciences text 2016 ftutahsudc 2022-03-07T21:46:47Z Habitat-based prediction of population density relies on relationships between landscape configuration (i.e., abundance of land-cover types) and equilibrium density. This may be accomplished by estimating resource selection probability functions (RSPFs) based on presence–absence data, or by relating carrying capacity to landscape covariates. We used RSPFs for moose (Alces alces) from 2 study sites and carrying capacities from 34 wildlife management units across northern Ontario, Canada, to create 2 estimators of moose density. We compared the predictions of both models to moose density in a novel site obtained via aerial census. We also projected the RSPF across 34 management units and compared predicted density to estimated carrying capacity of each unit. The RSPF and carrying capacity models predicted moose equilibrium densities that were statistically indistinguishable from the estimated density of moose at the novel study site, but the carrying capacity model generated uninformatively broad prediction intervals. The RSPF failed to predict carrying capacities in management units across Ontario; however, the differences between RSPF estimates and carrying capacities varied predictably with differences in covariates related to forage availability, suggesting habitat selection strength and RSPF transferability vary with landscape quality. Estimating densities using RSPFs relies on a consistent relationship between habitat selection and animal density; thus, RSPF applicability across space will depend heavily on similarity between the novel and original sites. Demographic projection benefits from broad spatiotemporal datasets that improve reliability but that are relatively rare and subject to broad error. Our findings suggest that selection-based population estimation is preferable to demographically based models because of increased precision of estimates, the immediacy of available data (e.g., single survey or radio-telemetry in multiple sites vs. many generations of population estimates in a time series across space), and the capacity to predict fine-scale patterns of distribution and abundance Text Alces alces Utah State University: DigitalCommons@USU Canada |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Utah State University: DigitalCommons@USU |
op_collection_id |
ftutahsudc |
language |
unknown |
topic |
abundance aerial survey Alces carrying capacity demography habitat predictive model resource selection function Environmental Sciences |
spellingShingle |
abundance aerial survey Alces carrying capacity demography habitat predictive model resource selection function Environmental Sciences Street, Garrett M. Rodgers, Arthur R. Avgar, Tal Vennen, Lucas M. Vander Fryxell, John M. Comparing Resource Selection and Demographic Models for Predicting Animal Density |
topic_facet |
abundance aerial survey Alces carrying capacity demography habitat predictive model resource selection function Environmental Sciences |
description |
Habitat-based prediction of population density relies on relationships between landscape configuration (i.e., abundance of land-cover types) and equilibrium density. This may be accomplished by estimating resource selection probability functions (RSPFs) based on presence–absence data, or by relating carrying capacity to landscape covariates. We used RSPFs for moose (Alces alces) from 2 study sites and carrying capacities from 34 wildlife management units across northern Ontario, Canada, to create 2 estimators of moose density. We compared the predictions of both models to moose density in a novel site obtained via aerial census. We also projected the RSPF across 34 management units and compared predicted density to estimated carrying capacity of each unit. The RSPF and carrying capacity models predicted moose equilibrium densities that were statistically indistinguishable from the estimated density of moose at the novel study site, but the carrying capacity model generated uninformatively broad prediction intervals. The RSPF failed to predict carrying capacities in management units across Ontario; however, the differences between RSPF estimates and carrying capacities varied predictably with differences in covariates related to forage availability, suggesting habitat selection strength and RSPF transferability vary with landscape quality. Estimating densities using RSPFs relies on a consistent relationship between habitat selection and animal density; thus, RSPF applicability across space will depend heavily on similarity between the novel and original sites. Demographic projection benefits from broad spatiotemporal datasets that improve reliability but that are relatively rare and subject to broad error. Our findings suggest that selection-based population estimation is preferable to demographically based models because of increased precision of estimates, the immediacy of available data (e.g., single survey or radio-telemetry in multiple sites vs. many generations of population estimates in a time series across space), and the capacity to predict fine-scale patterns of distribution and abundance |
author2 |
Wiley |
format |
Text |
author |
Street, Garrett M. Rodgers, Arthur R. Avgar, Tal Vennen, Lucas M. Vander Fryxell, John M. |
author_facet |
Street, Garrett M. Rodgers, Arthur R. Avgar, Tal Vennen, Lucas M. Vander Fryxell, John M. |
author_sort |
Street, Garrett M. |
title |
Comparing Resource Selection and Demographic Models for Predicting Animal Density |
title_short |
Comparing Resource Selection and Demographic Models for Predicting Animal Density |
title_full |
Comparing Resource Selection and Demographic Models for Predicting Animal Density |
title_fullStr |
Comparing Resource Selection and Demographic Models for Predicting Animal Density |
title_full_unstemmed |
Comparing Resource Selection and Demographic Models for Predicting Animal Density |
title_sort |
comparing resource selection and demographic models for predicting animal density |
publisher |
Hosted by Utah State University Libraries |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/wild_facpub/2765 |
geographic |
Canada |
geographic_facet |
Canada |
genre |
Alces alces |
genre_facet |
Alces alces |
op_source |
Wildland Resources Faculty Publications |
op_relation |
https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/wild_facpub/2765 |
_version_ |
1766259764583464960 |