Bottom-Up Drivers of Future Fire Regimes in Western Boreal North America
Forest characteristics, structure, and dynamics within the North American boreal region are heavily influenced by wildfire intensity, severity, and frequency. Increasing temperatures are likely to result in drier conditions and longer fire seasons, potentially leading to more intense and frequent fi...
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ftutahsudc:oai:digitalcommons.usu.edu:aspen_bib-8980 2023-05-15T17:46:46+02:00 Bottom-Up Drivers of Future Fire Regimes in Western Boreal North America Foster, Adrianna C. Shuman, Jacquelyn K. Rogers, Brendan M. Walker, Xanthe J. Mack, Michelle C. Bourgeau-Chavez, Laura L. Veraverbeke, Sander Goetz, Scott J. Institute of Physics Publishing Ltd. 2022-01-28T08:00:00Z application/pdf https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/aspen_bib/7979 https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=8980&context=aspen_bib unknown Hosted by Utah State University Libraries https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/aspen_bib/7979 https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=8980&context=aspen_bib Copyright for this work is held by the author. Transmission or reproduction of materials protected by copyright beyond that allowed by fair use requires the written permission of the copyright owners. Works not in the public domain cannot be commercially exploited without permission of the copyright owner. Responsibility for any use rests exclusively with the user. For more information contact the Institutional Repository Librarian at digitalcommons@usu.edu. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ PDM CC-BY Aspen Bibliography UVAFME boreal forest climate change wildfire disturbance fire self-limitation individual-based model Agriculture Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Forest Sciences Genetics and Genomics Plant Sciences text 2022 ftutahsudc 2022-09-08T17:17:43Z Forest characteristics, structure, and dynamics within the North American boreal region are heavily influenced by wildfire intensity, severity, and frequency. Increasing temperatures are likely to result in drier conditions and longer fire seasons, potentially leading to more intense and frequent fires. However, an increase in deciduous forest cover is also predicted across the region, potentially decreasing flammability. In this study, we use an individual tree-based forest model to test bottom-up (i.e. fuels) vs top-down (i.e. climate) controls on fire activity and project future forest and wildfire dynamics. The University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced is an individual tree-based forest model that has been successfully updated and validated within the North American boreal zone. We updated the model to better characterize fire ignition and behavior in relation to litter and fire weather conditions, allowing for further interactions between vegetation, soils, fire, and climate. Model output following updates showed good agreement with combustion observations at individual sites within boreal Alaska and western Canada. We then applied the updated model at sites within interior Alaska and the Northwest Territories to simulate wildfire and forest response to climate change under moderate (RCP 4.5) and extreme (RCP 8.5) scenarios. Results suggest that changing climate will act to decrease biomass and increase deciduous fraction in many regions of boreal North America. These changes are accompanied by decreases in fire probability and average fire intensity, despite fuel drying, indicating a negative feedback of fuel loading on wildfire. These simulations demonstrate the importance of dynamic fuels and dynamic vegetation in predicting future forest and wildfire conditions. The vegetation and wildfire changes predicted here have implications for large-scale changes in vegetation composition, biomass, and wildfire severity across boreal North America, potentially resulting in further feedbacks to regional and ... Text Northwest Territories Alaska Utah State University: DigitalCommons@USU Canada Northwest Territories |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Utah State University: DigitalCommons@USU |
op_collection_id |
ftutahsudc |
language |
unknown |
topic |
UVAFME boreal forest climate change wildfire disturbance fire self-limitation individual-based model Agriculture Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Forest Sciences Genetics and Genomics Plant Sciences |
spellingShingle |
UVAFME boreal forest climate change wildfire disturbance fire self-limitation individual-based model Agriculture Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Forest Sciences Genetics and Genomics Plant Sciences Foster, Adrianna C. Shuman, Jacquelyn K. Rogers, Brendan M. Walker, Xanthe J. Mack, Michelle C. Bourgeau-Chavez, Laura L. Veraverbeke, Sander Goetz, Scott J. Bottom-Up Drivers of Future Fire Regimes in Western Boreal North America |
topic_facet |
UVAFME boreal forest climate change wildfire disturbance fire self-limitation individual-based model Agriculture Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Forest Sciences Genetics and Genomics Plant Sciences |
description |
Forest characteristics, structure, and dynamics within the North American boreal region are heavily influenced by wildfire intensity, severity, and frequency. Increasing temperatures are likely to result in drier conditions and longer fire seasons, potentially leading to more intense and frequent fires. However, an increase in deciduous forest cover is also predicted across the region, potentially decreasing flammability. In this study, we use an individual tree-based forest model to test bottom-up (i.e. fuels) vs top-down (i.e. climate) controls on fire activity and project future forest and wildfire dynamics. The University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced is an individual tree-based forest model that has been successfully updated and validated within the North American boreal zone. We updated the model to better characterize fire ignition and behavior in relation to litter and fire weather conditions, allowing for further interactions between vegetation, soils, fire, and climate. Model output following updates showed good agreement with combustion observations at individual sites within boreal Alaska and western Canada. We then applied the updated model at sites within interior Alaska and the Northwest Territories to simulate wildfire and forest response to climate change under moderate (RCP 4.5) and extreme (RCP 8.5) scenarios. Results suggest that changing climate will act to decrease biomass and increase deciduous fraction in many regions of boreal North America. These changes are accompanied by decreases in fire probability and average fire intensity, despite fuel drying, indicating a negative feedback of fuel loading on wildfire. These simulations demonstrate the importance of dynamic fuels and dynamic vegetation in predicting future forest and wildfire conditions. The vegetation and wildfire changes predicted here have implications for large-scale changes in vegetation composition, biomass, and wildfire severity across boreal North America, potentially resulting in further feedbacks to regional and ... |
author2 |
Institute of Physics Publishing Ltd. |
format |
Text |
author |
Foster, Adrianna C. Shuman, Jacquelyn K. Rogers, Brendan M. Walker, Xanthe J. Mack, Michelle C. Bourgeau-Chavez, Laura L. Veraverbeke, Sander Goetz, Scott J. |
author_facet |
Foster, Adrianna C. Shuman, Jacquelyn K. Rogers, Brendan M. Walker, Xanthe J. Mack, Michelle C. Bourgeau-Chavez, Laura L. Veraverbeke, Sander Goetz, Scott J. |
author_sort |
Foster, Adrianna C. |
title |
Bottom-Up Drivers of Future Fire Regimes in Western Boreal North America |
title_short |
Bottom-Up Drivers of Future Fire Regimes in Western Boreal North America |
title_full |
Bottom-Up Drivers of Future Fire Regimes in Western Boreal North America |
title_fullStr |
Bottom-Up Drivers of Future Fire Regimes in Western Boreal North America |
title_full_unstemmed |
Bottom-Up Drivers of Future Fire Regimes in Western Boreal North America |
title_sort |
bottom-up drivers of future fire regimes in western boreal north america |
publisher |
Hosted by Utah State University Libraries |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/aspen_bib/7979 https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=8980&context=aspen_bib |
geographic |
Canada Northwest Territories |
geographic_facet |
Canada Northwest Territories |
genre |
Northwest Territories Alaska |
genre_facet |
Northwest Territories Alaska |
op_source |
Aspen Bibliography |
op_relation |
https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/aspen_bib/7979 https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=8980&context=aspen_bib |
op_rights |
Copyright for this work is held by the author. Transmission or reproduction of materials protected by copyright beyond that allowed by fair use requires the written permission of the copyright owners. Works not in the public domain cannot be commercially exploited without permission of the copyright owner. Responsibility for any use rests exclusively with the user. For more information contact the Institutional Repository Librarian at digitalcommons@usu.edu. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
PDM CC-BY |
_version_ |
1766150604620562432 |