Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes
Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979-2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensificatio...
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Online Access: | https://research.usq.edu.au/item/z09z6/evidence-for-link-between-modelled-trends-in-antarctic-sea-ice-and-underestimated-westerly-wind-changes https://research.usq.edu.au/download/2908f9def08c1fb5b88ca10c08f1ff7b0844a389aaa8f8e3f4037025b2ca1a10/1030930/ncomms10409.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10409 |
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ftusqland:oai:research.usq.edu.au:z09z6 2023-12-31T10:01:29+01:00 Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes Purich, Ariaan Cai, Wenju England, Matthew H. Cowan, Tim 2016 application/pdf https://research.usq.edu.au/item/z09z6/evidence-for-link-between-modelled-trends-in-antarctic-sea-ice-and-underestimated-westerly-wind-changes https://research.usq.edu.au/download/2908f9def08c1fb5b88ca10c08f1ff7b0844a389aaa8f8e3f4037025b2ca1a10/1030930/ncomms10409.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10409 unknown Nature Publishing Group https://research.usq.edu.au/download/2908f9def08c1fb5b88ca10c08f1ff7b0844a389aaa8f8e3f4037025b2ca1a10/1030930/ncomms10409.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10409 Purich, Ariaan, Cai, Wenju, England, Matthew H. and Cowan, Tim. 2016. "Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes." Nature Communications. 7. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10409 CC BY 4.0 Article climate change cooling ice sheet latitude salinity sea ice seasonal variation Southern Hemisphere summer warming wind article PeerReviewed 2016 ftusqland https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10409 2023-12-04T23:33:46Z Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979-2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Sea ice University of Southern Queensland: USQ ePrints Nature Communications 7 1 |
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University of Southern Queensland: USQ ePrints |
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topic |
Article climate change cooling ice sheet latitude salinity sea ice seasonal variation Southern Hemisphere summer warming wind |
spellingShingle |
Article climate change cooling ice sheet latitude salinity sea ice seasonal variation Southern Hemisphere summer warming wind Purich, Ariaan Cai, Wenju England, Matthew H. Cowan, Tim Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes |
topic_facet |
Article climate change cooling ice sheet latitude salinity sea ice seasonal variation Southern Hemisphere summer warming wind |
description |
Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979-2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Purich, Ariaan Cai, Wenju England, Matthew H. Cowan, Tim |
author_facet |
Purich, Ariaan Cai, Wenju England, Matthew H. Cowan, Tim |
author_sort |
Purich, Ariaan |
title |
Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes |
title_short |
Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes |
title_full |
Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes |
title_fullStr |
Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes |
title_sort |
evidence for link between modelled trends in antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/z09z6/evidence-for-link-between-modelled-trends-in-antarctic-sea-ice-and-underestimated-westerly-wind-changes https://research.usq.edu.au/download/2908f9def08c1fb5b88ca10c08f1ff7b0844a389aaa8f8e3f4037025b2ca1a10/1030930/ncomms10409.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10409 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://research.usq.edu.au/download/2908f9def08c1fb5b88ca10c08f1ff7b0844a389aaa8f8e3f4037025b2ca1a10/1030930/ncomms10409.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10409 Purich, Ariaan, Cai, Wenju, England, Matthew H. and Cowan, Tim. 2016. "Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes." Nature Communications. 7. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10409 |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10409 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
7 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1786801923288989696 |