Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models
While the annual mean Arctic Amplification (AA) index varied between two and three during the 1970–2000 period, it reached values exceeding four during the first two decades of the 21st century. The AA did not change in a continuous fashion but rather in two sharp increases around 1986 and 1999. Dur...
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Online Access: | https://research.usq.edu.au/item/z01w6/annual-mean-arctic-amplification-1970-2020-observed-and-simulated-by-cmip6-climate-models https://research.usq.edu.au/download/364fe3850558c3423677b757e61b8d54518ddffeed6f0f4d90a8f6b4d3679a83/1597614/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202022%20-%20Chylek.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099371 |
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ftusqland:oai:research.usq.edu.au:z01w6 2024-02-04T09:56:39+01:00 Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models Chylek, Petr Folland, Chris Klett, James D. Wang, Muyin Hengartner, Nick Lesins, Glen Dubey, Manvendra K. 2022 application/pdf https://research.usq.edu.au/item/z01w6/annual-mean-arctic-amplification-1970-2020-observed-and-simulated-by-cmip6-climate-models https://research.usq.edu.au/download/364fe3850558c3423677b757e61b8d54518ddffeed6f0f4d90a8f6b4d3679a83/1597614/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202022%20-%20Chylek.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099371 unknown John Wiley & Sons https://research.usq.edu.au/download/364fe3850558c3423677b757e61b8d54518ddffeed6f0f4d90a8f6b4d3679a83/1597614/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202022%20-%20Chylek.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099371 Chylek, Petr, Folland, Chris, Klett, James D., Wang, Muyin, Hengartner, Nick, Lesins, Glen and Dubey, Manvendra K. 2022. "Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models." Geophysical Research Letters. 49 (13). https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099371 Climate Models Arctic Amplification article PeerReviewed 2022 ftusqland https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099371 2024-01-08T23:33:39Z While the annual mean Arctic Amplification (AA) index varied between two and three during the 1970–2000 period, it reached values exceeding four during the first two decades of the 21st century. The AA did not change in a continuous fashion but rather in two sharp increases around 1986 and 1999. During those steps the mean global surface air temperature trend remained almost constant, while the Arctic trend increased. Although the “best” CMIP6 models reproduce the increasing trend of the AA in 1980s they do not capture the sharply increasing trend of the AA after 1999 including its rapid step-like increase. We propose that the first sharp AA increase around 1986 is due to external forcing, while the second step close to 1999 is due to internal climate variability, which models cannot reproduce in the observed time. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic University of Southern Queensland: USQ ePrints Arctic Geophysical Research Letters 49 13 |
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Open Polar |
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University of Southern Queensland: USQ ePrints |
op_collection_id |
ftusqland |
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unknown |
topic |
Climate Models Arctic Amplification |
spellingShingle |
Climate Models Arctic Amplification Chylek, Petr Folland, Chris Klett, James D. Wang, Muyin Hengartner, Nick Lesins, Glen Dubey, Manvendra K. Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models |
topic_facet |
Climate Models Arctic Amplification |
description |
While the annual mean Arctic Amplification (AA) index varied between two and three during the 1970–2000 period, it reached values exceeding four during the first two decades of the 21st century. The AA did not change in a continuous fashion but rather in two sharp increases around 1986 and 1999. During those steps the mean global surface air temperature trend remained almost constant, while the Arctic trend increased. Although the “best” CMIP6 models reproduce the increasing trend of the AA in 1980s they do not capture the sharply increasing trend of the AA after 1999 including its rapid step-like increase. We propose that the first sharp AA increase around 1986 is due to external forcing, while the second step close to 1999 is due to internal climate variability, which models cannot reproduce in the observed time. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Chylek, Petr Folland, Chris Klett, James D. Wang, Muyin Hengartner, Nick Lesins, Glen Dubey, Manvendra K. |
author_facet |
Chylek, Petr Folland, Chris Klett, James D. Wang, Muyin Hengartner, Nick Lesins, Glen Dubey, Manvendra K. |
author_sort |
Chylek, Petr |
title |
Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models |
title_short |
Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models |
title_full |
Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models |
title_fullStr |
Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models |
title_sort |
annual mean arctic amplification 1970–2020: observed and simulated by cmip6 climate models |
publisher |
John Wiley & Sons |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/z01w6/annual-mean-arctic-amplification-1970-2020-observed-and-simulated-by-cmip6-climate-models https://research.usq.edu.au/download/364fe3850558c3423677b757e61b8d54518ddffeed6f0f4d90a8f6b4d3679a83/1597614/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202022%20-%20Chylek.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099371 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic |
op_relation |
https://research.usq.edu.au/download/364fe3850558c3423677b757e61b8d54518ddffeed6f0f4d90a8f6b4d3679a83/1597614/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202022%20-%20Chylek.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099371 Chylek, Petr, Folland, Chris, Klett, James D., Wang, Muyin, Hengartner, Nick, Lesins, Glen and Dubey, Manvendra K. 2022. "Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models." Geophysical Research Letters. 49 (13). https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099371 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099371 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
49 |
container_issue |
13 |
_version_ |
1789961070767505408 |