Impact of large-scale dynamic versus thermodynamic climate conditions on contrasting tropical cyclone genesis frequency
Significant advances have been made in understanding the key climate factors responsible for tropical cyclone (TC) activity, yet any theory that estimates likelihood of observed TC formation rates from mean climate states remains elusive. The present study investigates how the extremes of observed T...
Published in: | Journal of Climate |
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Online Access: | https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q597q/impact-of-large-scale-dynamic-versus-thermodynamic-climate-conditions-on-contrasting-tropical-cyclone-genesis-frequency https://research.usq.edu.au/download/76e03af2c186175f3d2785f9b92a74c94e7c4aff26cc8489b322af4661e9b8e2/6993426/Sharmila_Walsh_JClimate_2017.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0900.1 |
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ftusqland:oai:research.usq.edu.au:q597q 2023-05-15T17:35:17+02:00 Impact of large-scale dynamic versus thermodynamic climate conditions on contrasting tropical cyclone genesis frequency Sur, Sharmila Walsh, K. J. E. 2017 application/pdf https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q597q/impact-of-large-scale-dynamic-versus-thermodynamic-climate-conditions-on-contrasting-tropical-cyclone-genesis-frequency https://research.usq.edu.au/download/76e03af2c186175f3d2785f9b92a74c94e7c4aff26cc8489b322af4661e9b8e2/6993426/Sharmila_Walsh_JClimate_2017.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0900.1 unknown https://research.usq.edu.au/download/76e03af2c186175f3d2785f9b92a74c94e7c4aff26cc8489b322af4661e9b8e2/6993426/Sharmila_Walsh_JClimate_2017.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0900.1 Sur, Sharmila and Walsh, K. J. E. 2017. "Impact of large-scale dynamic versus thermodynamic climate conditions on contrasting tropical cyclone genesis frequency." Journal of Climate. 30 (22), pp. 8865-8883. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0900.1 tropics hurricanes climate variability climatology interannual variability tropical variability article PeerReviewed 2017 ftusqland https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0900.1 2023-02-06T23:35:12Z Significant advances have been made in understanding the key climate factors responsible for tropical cyclone (TC) activity, yet any theory that estimates likelihood of observed TC formation rates from mean climate states remains elusive. The present study investigates how the extremes of observed TC genesis (TCG) frequency during peak TC seasons are interrelated with distinct changes in the large-scale climate conditions over different ocean basins using the global International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) dataset and ERA-Interim for the period 1979–2014. Peak TC seasons with significantly high and low TCG frequency are identified for five major ocean basins, and their substantial spatial changes in TCG are noted with regionally distinct differences. To explore the possible climate link behind such changes, a suite of potentially relevant dynamic and thermodynamic climate conditions is analyzed. Results indicate that the observed changes in extreme TCG frequency are closely linked with distinct dominance of specific dynamic and thermodynamic climate conditions over different regions. While the combined influences of dynamic and thermodynamic climate conditions are found to be necessary for modulating TC formation rate over the North Atlantic, eastern Pacific, and southern Indian Oceans, significant changes in large-scale dynamic conditions appear to solely control the TCG frequency over the western Pacific and South Pacific basins. Estimation of the fractional changes in genesis-weighted climate conditions also indicates the coherent but distinct competing effects of different climate conditions on TCG frequency. The present study further points out the need for revising the existing genesis indices for estimating TCG frequency over individual basins. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic University of Southern Queensland: USQ ePrints Indian Pacific Journal of Climate 30 22 8865 8883 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Southern Queensland: USQ ePrints |
op_collection_id |
ftusqland |
language |
unknown |
topic |
tropics hurricanes climate variability climatology interannual variability tropical variability |
spellingShingle |
tropics hurricanes climate variability climatology interannual variability tropical variability Sur, Sharmila Walsh, K. J. E. Impact of large-scale dynamic versus thermodynamic climate conditions on contrasting tropical cyclone genesis frequency |
topic_facet |
tropics hurricanes climate variability climatology interannual variability tropical variability |
description |
Significant advances have been made in understanding the key climate factors responsible for tropical cyclone (TC) activity, yet any theory that estimates likelihood of observed TC formation rates from mean climate states remains elusive. The present study investigates how the extremes of observed TC genesis (TCG) frequency during peak TC seasons are interrelated with distinct changes in the large-scale climate conditions over different ocean basins using the global International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) dataset and ERA-Interim for the period 1979–2014. Peak TC seasons with significantly high and low TCG frequency are identified for five major ocean basins, and their substantial spatial changes in TCG are noted with regionally distinct differences. To explore the possible climate link behind such changes, a suite of potentially relevant dynamic and thermodynamic climate conditions is analyzed. Results indicate that the observed changes in extreme TCG frequency are closely linked with distinct dominance of specific dynamic and thermodynamic climate conditions over different regions. While the combined influences of dynamic and thermodynamic climate conditions are found to be necessary for modulating TC formation rate over the North Atlantic, eastern Pacific, and southern Indian Oceans, significant changes in large-scale dynamic conditions appear to solely control the TCG frequency over the western Pacific and South Pacific basins. Estimation of the fractional changes in genesis-weighted climate conditions also indicates the coherent but distinct competing effects of different climate conditions on TCG frequency. The present study further points out the need for revising the existing genesis indices for estimating TCG frequency over individual basins. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sur, Sharmila Walsh, K. J. E. |
author_facet |
Sur, Sharmila Walsh, K. J. E. |
author_sort |
Sur, Sharmila |
title |
Impact of large-scale dynamic versus thermodynamic climate conditions on contrasting tropical cyclone genesis frequency |
title_short |
Impact of large-scale dynamic versus thermodynamic climate conditions on contrasting tropical cyclone genesis frequency |
title_full |
Impact of large-scale dynamic versus thermodynamic climate conditions on contrasting tropical cyclone genesis frequency |
title_fullStr |
Impact of large-scale dynamic versus thermodynamic climate conditions on contrasting tropical cyclone genesis frequency |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impact of large-scale dynamic versus thermodynamic climate conditions on contrasting tropical cyclone genesis frequency |
title_sort |
impact of large-scale dynamic versus thermodynamic climate conditions on contrasting tropical cyclone genesis frequency |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q597q/impact-of-large-scale-dynamic-versus-thermodynamic-climate-conditions-on-contrasting-tropical-cyclone-genesis-frequency https://research.usq.edu.au/download/76e03af2c186175f3d2785f9b92a74c94e7c4aff26cc8489b322af4661e9b8e2/6993426/Sharmila_Walsh_JClimate_2017.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0900.1 |
geographic |
Indian Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Indian Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://research.usq.edu.au/download/76e03af2c186175f3d2785f9b92a74c94e7c4aff26cc8489b322af4661e9b8e2/6993426/Sharmila_Walsh_JClimate_2017.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0900.1 Sur, Sharmila and Walsh, K. J. E. 2017. "Impact of large-scale dynamic versus thermodynamic climate conditions on contrasting tropical cyclone genesis frequency." Journal of Climate. 30 (22), pp. 8865-8883. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0900.1 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0900.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
30 |
container_issue |
22 |
container_start_page |
8865 |
op_container_end_page |
8883 |
_version_ |
1766134397212295168 |