Causes of climate change over the historical record

This review addresses the causes of observed climate variations across the industrial period, from 1750 to present. It focuses on long-term changes, both in response to external forcing and to climate variability in the ocean and atmosphere. A synthesis of results from attribution studies based on p...

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Published in:Environmental Research Letters
Main Authors: Hegerl, Gabriele C., Bronnimann, Stefan, Cowan, Tim, Friedman, Andrew R., Hawkins, Ed, Iles, Carley, Muller, Wolfgang, Schurer, Andrew, Undorf, Sabine
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:unknown
Published: 2019
Subjects:
Online Access:https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q5803/causes-of-climate-change-over-the-historical-record
https://research.usq.edu.au/download/48f05beb0e69a6f499640eecbf3369191eca694a1059c1b20b3f8501c666c908/5578099/Hegerl_2019_Environ._Res._Lett._14_123006.pdf
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4557
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spelling ftusqland:oai:research.usq.edu.au:q5803 2023-07-02T03:33:08+02:00 Causes of climate change over the historical record Hegerl, Gabriele C. Bronnimann, Stefan Cowan, Tim Friedman, Andrew R. Hawkins, Ed Iles, Carley Muller, Wolfgang Schurer, Andrew Undorf, Sabine 2019 application/pdf https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q5803/causes-of-climate-change-over-the-historical-record https://research.usq.edu.au/download/48f05beb0e69a6f499640eecbf3369191eca694a1059c1b20b3f8501c666c908/5578099/Hegerl_2019_Environ._Res._Lett._14_123006.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4557 unknown https://research.usq.edu.au/download/48f05beb0e69a6f499640eecbf3369191eca694a1059c1b20b3f8501c666c908/5578099/Hegerl_2019_Environ._Res._Lett._14_123006.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4557 Hegerl, Gabriele C., Bronnimann, Stefan, Cowan, Tim, Friedman, Andrew R., Hawkins, Ed, Iles, Carley, Muller, Wolfgang, Schurer, Andrew and Undorf, Sabine. 2019. "Causes of climate change over the historical record." Environmental Research Letters. 14 (12), pp. 1-25. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4557 CC BY 3.0 climate change instrumental record attribution extreme events precipitation article PeerReviewed 2019 ftusqland https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4557 2023-06-12T22:34:11Z This review addresses the causes of observed climate variations across the industrial period, from 1750 to present. It focuses on long-term changes, both in response to external forcing and to climate variability in the ocean and atmosphere. A synthesis of results from attribution studies based on palaeoclimatic reconstructions covering the recent few centuries to the 20th century, and instrumental data shows how greenhouse gases began to cause warming since the beginning of industrialization, causing trends that are attributable to greenhouse gases by 1900 in proxy-based temperature reconstructions. Their influence increased over time, dominating recent trends. However, other forcings have caused substantial deviations from this emerging greenhouse warming trend: volcanic eruptions have caused strong cooling following a period of unusually heavy activity, such as in the early 19th century; or warming during periods of low activity, such as in the early-to-mid 20th century. Anthropogenic aerosol forcing most likely masked some global greenhouse warming over the 20th century, especially since the accelerated increase in sulphate aerosol emissions starting around 1950. Based on modelling and attribution studies, aerosol forcing has also influenced regional temperatures, caused long-term changes in monsoons and imprinted on Atlantic variability. Multi-decadal variations in atmospheric modes can also cause long-term climate variability, as apparent for the example of the North Atlantic Oscillation, and have influenced Atlantic ocean variability. Long-term precipitation changes are more difficult to attribute to external forcing due to spatial sparseness of data and noisiness of precipitation changes, but the observed pattern of precipitation response to warming from station data supports climate model simulated changes and with it, predictions. The long-term warming has also led to significant differences in daily variability as, for example, visible in long European station data. Extreme events over the historical ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation University of Southern Queensland: USQ ePrints Environmental Research Letters 14 12 123006
institution Open Polar
collection University of Southern Queensland: USQ ePrints
op_collection_id ftusqland
language unknown
topic climate change
instrumental record
attribution
extreme events
precipitation
spellingShingle climate change
instrumental record
attribution
extreme events
precipitation
Hegerl, Gabriele C.
Bronnimann, Stefan
Cowan, Tim
Friedman, Andrew R.
Hawkins, Ed
Iles, Carley
Muller, Wolfgang
Schurer, Andrew
Undorf, Sabine
Causes of climate change over the historical record
topic_facet climate change
instrumental record
attribution
extreme events
precipitation
description This review addresses the causes of observed climate variations across the industrial period, from 1750 to present. It focuses on long-term changes, both in response to external forcing and to climate variability in the ocean and atmosphere. A synthesis of results from attribution studies based on palaeoclimatic reconstructions covering the recent few centuries to the 20th century, and instrumental data shows how greenhouse gases began to cause warming since the beginning of industrialization, causing trends that are attributable to greenhouse gases by 1900 in proxy-based temperature reconstructions. Their influence increased over time, dominating recent trends. However, other forcings have caused substantial deviations from this emerging greenhouse warming trend: volcanic eruptions have caused strong cooling following a period of unusually heavy activity, such as in the early 19th century; or warming during periods of low activity, such as in the early-to-mid 20th century. Anthropogenic aerosol forcing most likely masked some global greenhouse warming over the 20th century, especially since the accelerated increase in sulphate aerosol emissions starting around 1950. Based on modelling and attribution studies, aerosol forcing has also influenced regional temperatures, caused long-term changes in monsoons and imprinted on Atlantic variability. Multi-decadal variations in atmospheric modes can also cause long-term climate variability, as apparent for the example of the North Atlantic Oscillation, and have influenced Atlantic ocean variability. Long-term precipitation changes are more difficult to attribute to external forcing due to spatial sparseness of data and noisiness of precipitation changes, but the observed pattern of precipitation response to warming from station data supports climate model simulated changes and with it, predictions. The long-term warming has also led to significant differences in daily variability as, for example, visible in long European station data. Extreme events over the historical ...
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Hegerl, Gabriele C.
Bronnimann, Stefan
Cowan, Tim
Friedman, Andrew R.
Hawkins, Ed
Iles, Carley
Muller, Wolfgang
Schurer, Andrew
Undorf, Sabine
author_facet Hegerl, Gabriele C.
Bronnimann, Stefan
Cowan, Tim
Friedman, Andrew R.
Hawkins, Ed
Iles, Carley
Muller, Wolfgang
Schurer, Andrew
Undorf, Sabine
author_sort Hegerl, Gabriele C.
title Causes of climate change over the historical record
title_short Causes of climate change over the historical record
title_full Causes of climate change over the historical record
title_fullStr Causes of climate change over the historical record
title_full_unstemmed Causes of climate change over the historical record
title_sort causes of climate change over the historical record
publishDate 2019
url https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q5803/causes-of-climate-change-over-the-historical-record
https://research.usq.edu.au/download/48f05beb0e69a6f499640eecbf3369191eca694a1059c1b20b3f8501c666c908/5578099/Hegerl_2019_Environ._Res._Lett._14_123006.pdf
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4557
genre North Atlantic
North Atlantic oscillation
genre_facet North Atlantic
North Atlantic oscillation
op_relation https://research.usq.edu.au/download/48f05beb0e69a6f499640eecbf3369191eca694a1059c1b20b3f8501c666c908/5578099/Hegerl_2019_Environ._Res._Lett._14_123006.pdf
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4557
Hegerl, Gabriele C., Bronnimann, Stefan, Cowan, Tim, Friedman, Andrew R., Hawkins, Ed, Iles, Carley, Muller, Wolfgang, Schurer, Andrew and Undorf, Sabine. 2019. "Causes of climate change over the historical record." Environmental Research Letters. 14 (12), pp. 1-25. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4557
op_rights CC BY 3.0
op_doi https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4557
container_title Environmental Research Letters
container_volume 14
container_issue 12
container_start_page 123006
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