Extension and refinement of a stochastic modelling approach to assess ice-jam flood hazard

• Published in: Hydrology Research
• Main Author: Lindenschmidt, Karl-Erich
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: IWA Publishing 2023
• Subjects: Athabasca River; Fort McMurray; Monte-Carlo analysis; ice-jam; river ice modelling; stochastic modelling
• Online Access: https://hdl.handle.net/10388/14764; https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2023.042

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licence (CC BY 4.0), which permits copying, adaptation and redistribution, provided the original work is properly cited (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Peer Reviewed In the spring of 2020, the town of Fort McMurray, which lies on the banks of the Athabasca River, experienced an ice-jam flood event that was the most severe in approximately 60 years. In order to capture the severity of the event, a stochastic modelling approach, previously developed by the author for ice-jam flood forecasting, has been refined for ice-jam flood hazard and risk assessments and ice-jam mitigation feasibility studies, which is the subject of this paper. Scenarios of artificial breakage demonstrate the applicability of the revised modelling framework.