Weather variability affects the Peregrine Falcon (F. p. tundrius) breeding success in South Greenland

• Main Authors: Carlzon, Linnéa, Karlsson, Amanda, Falk, Knud, Møller, Søren
• Format: Conference Object
• Language: English
• Published: 2017
• Subjects: Vandrefalk; Grønland; Peregrine Falcon; Greenland; Weather extremes; Arctic; Climate change; Global warming; peregrine falcon; vandrefalk
• Online Access: https://forskning.ruc.dk/da/publications/51c79051-a629-43d6-a6ce-3f472d922589; https://hdl.handle.net/1800/51c79051-a629-43d6-a6ce-3f472d922589

Global warming is affecting the Arctic at a much higher rate than the rest of the globe, causing a rapidly changing environment for Arctic biota. Climate change is already causing increased variability and extremes in precipitation. Although the peregrine falcon is a well-studied top predator in the Arctic only a few studies have identified how the changing weather patterns affect the breeding populations. Therefore, in order to understand the effects of climate change on the peregrine’s future prospects, we investigated the relationship between weather variability (“extreme weather”) and breeding success parameters for the peregrine in South Greenland. The peregrine population in South Greenland has been studied since 1981, and we defined two variables for comparison with weather data: ‘young/known territory’ (range 0.8 – 3.1) and ‘nest success’, i.e. proportion of known sites producing young (range 0.25 to 1.0). Weather data were obtained from two weather stations in the study area available from the Danish Meteorological Institute. From the raw data we calculated four extreme predictor variables: ‘extreme temperature’, ‘extreme precipitation’ and ‘consecutive rainy days’ – and ‘extreme weather’ combining rain and temperature. Regression analyses showed that the peregrine breeding success (both parameters) is linked to ‘extreme weather’; the strongest correlation is with total days in the season with ‘extreme weather’ affecting the breeding success negatively. Secondly, ‘low temperature’ and total days with ‘extreme weather’ during the pre-laying and incubation period also had significant negative correlation with breeding success. Contrary to expectations (and other studies), we found no significant effect of precipitation during the nesting period. Results also indicate that other factors influence the breeding success, as we have a strong downward trend in breeding success recent years but not an increase of extreme weather events during the same period. Global warming is affecting the Arctic at a much ...