Прогнозирование энерго- и нефтепотребления автомобильным транспортом в регионах Российской Федерации
The paper offers the directions for the improvement of methodological approach to forecasting the energy consumption in transport, taking into account special features of Russian regions. The authors developed a multivariate model allowing to predict the motor vehicle rate specified for the regions...
Published in: | Economy of Region |
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Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
2017
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Online Access: | http://elar.urfu.ru/handle/10995/91701 https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85029512167&doi=10.17059%2f2017-3-18&partnerID=40&md5=f617a9c4fb11551df8ecce53b07f9263 https://doi.org/10.17059/2017-3-18 |
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fturalfuniv:oai:elar.urfu.ru:10995/91701 2024-01-21T10:05:30+01:00 Прогнозирование энерго- и нефтепотребления автомобильным транспортом в регионах Российской Федерации Forecasting of energy and petroleum consumption by motor transport in the regions of the Russian Federation Eder, L. V. Filimonova, I. V. Nemov, V. Y. Provornaya, I. V. Эдер, Л. В. Филимонова, И. В. Немов, В. Ю. Проворная, И. В. 2017 application/pdf http://elar.urfu.ru/handle/10995/91701 https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85029512167&doi=10.17059%2f2017-3-18&partnerID=40&md5=f617a9c4fb11551df8ecce53b07f9263 https://doi.org/10.17059/2017-3-18 ru rus Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences Институт экономики Уральского отделения РАН Экономика региона. 2017. Том 13, выпуск 3 Прогнозирование энерго- и нефтепотребления автомобильным транспортом в регионах Российской Федерации / Л. В. Эдер, И. В. Филимонова, В. Ю. Немов, И. В. Проворная. — DOI 10.17059/2017-3-18. — Текст : электронный // Экономика региона. — 2017. — Том 13, выпуск 3. — С. 859-870. 2411-1406 2072-6414 https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85029512167&doi=10.17059%2f2017-3-18&partnerID=40&md5=f617a9c4fb11551df8ecce53b07f9263 WOS:000417000100018 http://elar.urfu.ru/handle/10995/91701 doi:10.17059/2017-3-18 85029512167 000417000100018 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCE ENERGY CONSUMPTION ENERGY EFFICIENCY ENERGY MARKET FORECASTS FEDERAL DISTRICTS FORECASTING MOTOR TRANSPORT OIL-PRODUCTS STRUCTURE OF VEHICLES SUBJECTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Article info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2017 fturalfuniv https://doi.org/10.17059/2017-3-1810.17059/2017-3-18. 2023-12-26T01:59:54Z The paper offers the directions for the improvement of methodological approach to forecasting the energy consumption in transport, taking into account special features of Russian regions. The authors developed a multivariate model allowing to predict the motor vehicle rate specified for the regions of the Russian Federation depending on the economic, social and institutional features. We formalized the dynamic (trend) model for predicting the effectiveness of energy consumption per unit of the vehicle in Russia with details on Federal districts. In the study, in predicting the number of motor transport, the authors applied the methods of economic and mathematical simulation modelling based on the results of the econometric analysis for the calculation of the population having motor transport. In determining the potential specific energy consumption, we have aggregated trending patterns and convergence. The study has shown that by 2040, the number of passenger cars in Russia will grow to 57.1 million, and the total number of all types of road transport will grow by 14.9 million units to 66.2 million. The highest growth rates are predicted in the Central regions of Russia and in some areas of Siberia. The smallest growth rates are expected in the Chukotka Autonomous District, Kamchatka and Primorsky regions. Energy efficiency in transport and active introduction of alternative motor fuels, primarily methane, will reduce the consumption of gasoline and diesel fuel by motor transport. Thus, in the forecast period of 2018-2040, the consumption of petroleum products by motor transport will be reduced by 8.9 million tons: From 61,9 million tons of oil to 51.7 million tons of oil. The results of the study can be applied for the formulation of proposals on the creation of scientific and methodological apparatus to predict the development of transport sector and oil products supply in of the regions of Russia. Предложены направления совершенствования методического подхода к прогнозированию энергопотребления на ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Chukotka Kamchatka Siberia Ural Federal University (URFU): ELAR Economy of Region 859 870 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Ural Federal University (URFU): ELAR |
op_collection_id |
fturalfuniv |
language |
Russian |
topic |
ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCE ENERGY CONSUMPTION ENERGY EFFICIENCY ENERGY MARKET FORECASTS FEDERAL DISTRICTS FORECASTING MOTOR TRANSPORT OIL-PRODUCTS STRUCTURE OF VEHICLES SUBJECTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION |
spellingShingle |
ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCE ENERGY CONSUMPTION ENERGY EFFICIENCY ENERGY MARKET FORECASTS FEDERAL DISTRICTS FORECASTING MOTOR TRANSPORT OIL-PRODUCTS STRUCTURE OF VEHICLES SUBJECTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Eder, L. V. Filimonova, I. V. Nemov, V. Y. Provornaya, I. V. Эдер, Л. В. Филимонова, И. В. Немов, В. Ю. Проворная, И. В. Прогнозирование энерго- и нефтепотребления автомобильным транспортом в регионах Российской Федерации |
topic_facet |
ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCE ENERGY CONSUMPTION ENERGY EFFICIENCY ENERGY MARKET FORECASTS FEDERAL DISTRICTS FORECASTING MOTOR TRANSPORT OIL-PRODUCTS STRUCTURE OF VEHICLES SUBJECTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION |
description |
The paper offers the directions for the improvement of methodological approach to forecasting the energy consumption in transport, taking into account special features of Russian regions. The authors developed a multivariate model allowing to predict the motor vehicle rate specified for the regions of the Russian Federation depending on the economic, social and institutional features. We formalized the dynamic (trend) model for predicting the effectiveness of energy consumption per unit of the vehicle in Russia with details on Federal districts. In the study, in predicting the number of motor transport, the authors applied the methods of economic and mathematical simulation modelling based on the results of the econometric analysis for the calculation of the population having motor transport. In determining the potential specific energy consumption, we have aggregated trending patterns and convergence. The study has shown that by 2040, the number of passenger cars in Russia will grow to 57.1 million, and the total number of all types of road transport will grow by 14.9 million units to 66.2 million. The highest growth rates are predicted in the Central regions of Russia and in some areas of Siberia. The smallest growth rates are expected in the Chukotka Autonomous District, Kamchatka and Primorsky regions. Energy efficiency in transport and active introduction of alternative motor fuels, primarily methane, will reduce the consumption of gasoline and diesel fuel by motor transport. Thus, in the forecast period of 2018-2040, the consumption of petroleum products by motor transport will be reduced by 8.9 million tons: From 61,9 million tons of oil to 51.7 million tons of oil. The results of the study can be applied for the formulation of proposals on the creation of scientific and methodological apparatus to predict the development of transport sector and oil products supply in of the regions of Russia. Предложены направления совершенствования методического подхода к прогнозированию энергопотребления на ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Eder, L. V. Filimonova, I. V. Nemov, V. Y. Provornaya, I. V. Эдер, Л. В. Филимонова, И. В. Немов, В. Ю. Проворная, И. В. |
author_facet |
Eder, L. V. Filimonova, I. V. Nemov, V. Y. Provornaya, I. V. Эдер, Л. В. Филимонова, И. В. Немов, В. Ю. Проворная, И. В. |
author_sort |
Eder, L. V. |
title |
Прогнозирование энерго- и нефтепотребления автомобильным транспортом в регионах Российской Федерации |
title_short |
Прогнозирование энерго- и нефтепотребления автомобильным транспортом в регионах Российской Федерации |
title_full |
Прогнозирование энерго- и нефтепотребления автомобильным транспортом в регионах Российской Федерации |
title_fullStr |
Прогнозирование энерго- и нефтепотребления автомобильным транспортом в регионах Российской Федерации |
title_full_unstemmed |
Прогнозирование энерго- и нефтепотребления автомобильным транспортом в регионах Российской Федерации |
title_sort |
прогнозирование энерго- и нефтепотребления автомобильным транспортом в регионах российской федерации |
publisher |
Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://elar.urfu.ru/handle/10995/91701 https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85029512167&doi=10.17059%2f2017-3-18&partnerID=40&md5=f617a9c4fb11551df8ecce53b07f9263 https://doi.org/10.17059/2017-3-18 |
genre |
Chukotka Kamchatka Siberia |
genre_facet |
Chukotka Kamchatka Siberia |
op_relation |
Экономика региона. 2017. Том 13, выпуск 3 Прогнозирование энерго- и нефтепотребления автомобильным транспортом в регионах Российской Федерации / Л. В. Эдер, И. В. Филимонова, В. Ю. Немов, И. В. Проворная. — DOI 10.17059/2017-3-18. — Текст : электронный // Экономика региона. — 2017. — Том 13, выпуск 3. — С. 859-870. 2411-1406 2072-6414 https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85029512167&doi=10.17059%2f2017-3-18&partnerID=40&md5=f617a9c4fb11551df8ecce53b07f9263 WOS:000417000100018 http://elar.urfu.ru/handle/10995/91701 doi:10.17059/2017-3-18 85029512167 000417000100018 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.17059/2017-3-1810.17059/2017-3-18. |
container_title |
Economy of Region |
container_start_page |
859 |
op_container_end_page |
870 |
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1788695947696406528 |