Modeling the surface mass balance of Penny Ice Cap, Baffin Island, 1959–2099
Glaciers of Baffin Island and nearby islands of Arctic Canada have experienced rapid mass losses over recent decades. However, projections of loss rates into the 21st century have so far been limited by the availability of model calibration and validation data. In this study, we model the surface ma...
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Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära
2023
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ftuppsalauniv:oai:DiVA.org:uu-519339 2024-02-11T09:55:38+01:00 Modeling the surface mass balance of Penny Ice Cap, Baffin Island, 1959–2099 Schaffer, Nicole Copland, Luke Zdanowicz, Christian Hock, Regine 2023 application/pdf http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-519339 https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2023.68 eng eng Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära Annals of Glaciology, 0260-3055, 2023 orcid:0000-0003-1736-6108 orcid:0000-0001-5374-2145 orcid:0000-0002-1045-5063 orcid:0000-0001-8336-9441 http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-519339 doi:10.1017/aog.2023.68 ISI:001103423600001 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Arctic glaciology climate change glacier mass balance glacier modeling Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Annan geovetenskap och miljövetenskap Physical Geography Naturgeografi Article in journal info:eu-repo/semantics/article text 2023 ftuppsalauniv https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2023.68 2024-01-17T23:31:53Z Glaciers of Baffin Island and nearby islands of Arctic Canada have experienced rapid mass losses over recent decades. However, projections of loss rates into the 21st century have so far been limited by the availability of model calibration and validation data. In this study, we model the surface mass balance of the largest ice cap on Baffin Island, Penny Ice Cap, since 1959, using an enhanced temperature index model calibrated with in situ data from 2006–2014. Subsequently, we project changes to 2099 based on the RCP4.5 climate scenario. Since the mid-1990s, the surface mass balance over Penny Ice Cap has become increasingly negative, particularly after 2005. Using volume–area scaling to account for glacier retreat, peak net mass loss is projected to occur between ~2040 and 2080, and the ice cap is expected to lose 22% (377.4 Gt or 60 m w.e.) of its 2014 ice mass by 2099, contributing 1.0 mm to sea level rise. Our 2015–2099 projections are approximately nine times more sensitive to changes in temperature than precipitation, with an absolute cumulative difference of 566 Gt a–1 (90 m w.e.) between +2 and −2°C scenarios, and 63 Gt a–1 (10 m w.e.) between +20% and −20% precipitation scenarios. Article in Journal/Newspaper Annals of Glaciology Arctic Baffin Island Baffin Climate change glacier* Ice cap Penny Ice Cap Uppsala University: Publications (DiVA) Arctic Baffin Island Canada Penny Ice Cap ENVELOPE(-66.214,-66.214,67.284,67.284) Annals of Glaciology 1 13 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Uppsala University: Publications (DiVA) |
op_collection_id |
ftuppsalauniv |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic glaciology climate change glacier mass balance glacier modeling Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Annan geovetenskap och miljövetenskap Physical Geography Naturgeografi |
spellingShingle |
Arctic glaciology climate change glacier mass balance glacier modeling Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Annan geovetenskap och miljövetenskap Physical Geography Naturgeografi Schaffer, Nicole Copland, Luke Zdanowicz, Christian Hock, Regine Modeling the surface mass balance of Penny Ice Cap, Baffin Island, 1959–2099 |
topic_facet |
Arctic glaciology climate change glacier mass balance glacier modeling Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Annan geovetenskap och miljövetenskap Physical Geography Naturgeografi |
description |
Glaciers of Baffin Island and nearby islands of Arctic Canada have experienced rapid mass losses over recent decades. However, projections of loss rates into the 21st century have so far been limited by the availability of model calibration and validation data. In this study, we model the surface mass balance of the largest ice cap on Baffin Island, Penny Ice Cap, since 1959, using an enhanced temperature index model calibrated with in situ data from 2006–2014. Subsequently, we project changes to 2099 based on the RCP4.5 climate scenario. Since the mid-1990s, the surface mass balance over Penny Ice Cap has become increasingly negative, particularly after 2005. Using volume–area scaling to account for glacier retreat, peak net mass loss is projected to occur between ~2040 and 2080, and the ice cap is expected to lose 22% (377.4 Gt or 60 m w.e.) of its 2014 ice mass by 2099, contributing 1.0 mm to sea level rise. Our 2015–2099 projections are approximately nine times more sensitive to changes in temperature than precipitation, with an absolute cumulative difference of 566 Gt a–1 (90 m w.e.) between +2 and −2°C scenarios, and 63 Gt a–1 (10 m w.e.) between +20% and −20% precipitation scenarios. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Schaffer, Nicole Copland, Luke Zdanowicz, Christian Hock, Regine |
author_facet |
Schaffer, Nicole Copland, Luke Zdanowicz, Christian Hock, Regine |
author_sort |
Schaffer, Nicole |
title |
Modeling the surface mass balance of Penny Ice Cap, Baffin Island, 1959–2099 |
title_short |
Modeling the surface mass balance of Penny Ice Cap, Baffin Island, 1959–2099 |
title_full |
Modeling the surface mass balance of Penny Ice Cap, Baffin Island, 1959–2099 |
title_fullStr |
Modeling the surface mass balance of Penny Ice Cap, Baffin Island, 1959–2099 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modeling the surface mass balance of Penny Ice Cap, Baffin Island, 1959–2099 |
title_sort |
modeling the surface mass balance of penny ice cap, baffin island, 1959–2099 |
publisher |
Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-519339 https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2023.68 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-66.214,-66.214,67.284,67.284) |
geographic |
Arctic Baffin Island Canada Penny Ice Cap |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Baffin Island Canada Penny Ice Cap |
genre |
Annals of Glaciology Arctic Baffin Island Baffin Climate change glacier* Ice cap Penny Ice Cap |
genre_facet |
Annals of Glaciology Arctic Baffin Island Baffin Climate change glacier* Ice cap Penny Ice Cap |
op_relation |
Annals of Glaciology, 0260-3055, 2023 orcid:0000-0003-1736-6108 orcid:0000-0001-5374-2145 orcid:0000-0002-1045-5063 orcid:0000-0001-8336-9441 http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-519339 doi:10.1017/aog.2023.68 ISI:001103423600001 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2023.68 |
container_title |
Annals of Glaciology |
container_start_page |
1 |
op_container_end_page |
13 |
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1790597994830102528 |