Persistent anomalies of the North Atlantic jet stream and associated surface extremes over Europe
Unusual, persistent configurations of the North Atlantic jet stream affect the weather and climate over Europe. We focus on winter and on intraseasonal and seasonal time scales, and study persistent jet anomalies through the lens of large deviation theory using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära
2023
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ftuppsalauniv:oai:DiVA.org:uu-496576 2024-02-11T10:06:17+01:00 Persistent anomalies of the North Atlantic jet stream and associated surface extremes over Europe Gálfi, Vera Melinda Messori, Gabriele 2023 application/pdf http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-496576 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acaedf eng eng Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära Stockholm Univ, Dept Meteorol, Stockholm, Sweden; Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Stockholm, Sweden Environmental Research Letters, 2023, 18:2, orcid:0000-0002-8965-0880 orcid:0000-0002-2032-5211 http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-496576 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acaedf ISI:000919882500001 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess jet stream extreme events extreme value theory persistent jet anomalies large deviation theory Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning Climate Research Klimatforskning Article in journal info:eu-repo/semantics/article text 2023 ftuppsalauniv https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acaedf 2024-01-17T23:33:33Z Unusual, persistent configurations of the North Atlantic jet stream affect the weather and climate over Europe. We focus on winter and on intraseasonal and seasonal time scales, and study persistent jet anomalies through the lens of large deviation theory using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations of the MPI-ESM-LR model and ERA5 reanalysis data. The configurations of interest are defined as long-lasting anomalies of a few months in jet latitude, speed or zonality. Our results show that persistent temperature and precipitation extremes over large European regions are anomalously frequent during the unusual, persistent jet configurations we identify. Furthermore, the relative increase in frequency of surface extremes is larger for more intense surface extremes and/or more extreme jet anomalies. This is relevant in the context of the predictability of these extremes. The highest extreme event frequencies at the surface are observed in case of precipitation over the Mediterranean and Western Europe during anomalously zonal and/or fast jet events, pointing to these jet anomalies matching rather homogeneous large scale atmospheric configurations with a clear surface footprint. Additionally, our results emphasise the usefulness of large deviation rate functions to estimate the frequency of occurrence of persistent jet anomalies. They therefore provide a tool to statistically describe long-lasting anomalies, much like extreme value theory may be used to investigate shorter-lived extreme events. Correction in: Environmental Research Letters , vol. 18, issue 3, article ID 039602 DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/acbdb3 Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Uppsala University: Publications (DiVA) Environmental Research Letters 18 2 024017 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Uppsala University: Publications (DiVA) |
op_collection_id |
ftuppsalauniv |
language |
English |
topic |
jet stream extreme events extreme value theory persistent jet anomalies large deviation theory Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning Climate Research Klimatforskning |
spellingShingle |
jet stream extreme events extreme value theory persistent jet anomalies large deviation theory Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning Climate Research Klimatforskning Gálfi, Vera Melinda Messori, Gabriele Persistent anomalies of the North Atlantic jet stream and associated surface extremes over Europe |
topic_facet |
jet stream extreme events extreme value theory persistent jet anomalies large deviation theory Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning Climate Research Klimatforskning |
description |
Unusual, persistent configurations of the North Atlantic jet stream affect the weather and climate over Europe. We focus on winter and on intraseasonal and seasonal time scales, and study persistent jet anomalies through the lens of large deviation theory using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations of the MPI-ESM-LR model and ERA5 reanalysis data. The configurations of interest are defined as long-lasting anomalies of a few months in jet latitude, speed or zonality. Our results show that persistent temperature and precipitation extremes over large European regions are anomalously frequent during the unusual, persistent jet configurations we identify. Furthermore, the relative increase in frequency of surface extremes is larger for more intense surface extremes and/or more extreme jet anomalies. This is relevant in the context of the predictability of these extremes. The highest extreme event frequencies at the surface are observed in case of precipitation over the Mediterranean and Western Europe during anomalously zonal and/or fast jet events, pointing to these jet anomalies matching rather homogeneous large scale atmospheric configurations with a clear surface footprint. Additionally, our results emphasise the usefulness of large deviation rate functions to estimate the frequency of occurrence of persistent jet anomalies. They therefore provide a tool to statistically describe long-lasting anomalies, much like extreme value theory may be used to investigate shorter-lived extreme events. Correction in: Environmental Research Letters , vol. 18, issue 3, article ID 039602 DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/acbdb3 |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gálfi, Vera Melinda Messori, Gabriele |
author_facet |
Gálfi, Vera Melinda Messori, Gabriele |
author_sort |
Gálfi, Vera Melinda |
title |
Persistent anomalies of the North Atlantic jet stream and associated surface extremes over Europe |
title_short |
Persistent anomalies of the North Atlantic jet stream and associated surface extremes over Europe |
title_full |
Persistent anomalies of the North Atlantic jet stream and associated surface extremes over Europe |
title_fullStr |
Persistent anomalies of the North Atlantic jet stream and associated surface extremes over Europe |
title_full_unstemmed |
Persistent anomalies of the North Atlantic jet stream and associated surface extremes over Europe |
title_sort |
persistent anomalies of the north atlantic jet stream and associated surface extremes over europe |
publisher |
Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-496576 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acaedf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
Environmental Research Letters, 2023, 18:2, orcid:0000-0002-8965-0880 orcid:0000-0002-2032-5211 http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-496576 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acaedf ISI:000919882500001 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acaedf |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
024017 |
_version_ |
1790603907305570304 |