An NAO-dominated mode of atmospheric circulation drives large decadal changes in wintertime surface climate and snow mass over Eurasia
The leading mode of wintertime atmospheric variability over the North Atlantic-North Eurasia sector is dominated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and accounts for more than one third of the total variability. This study explores the influences of the leading mode on decadal climate variabilit...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära
2022
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Online Access: | http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-470962 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac592f |
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ftuppsalauniv:oai:DiVA.org:uu-470962 2024-02-11T10:06:18+01:00 An NAO-dominated mode of atmospheric circulation drives large decadal changes in wintertime surface climate and snow mass over Eurasia Ye, Kunhui Messori, Gabriele Chen, Deliang Woollings, Tim 2022 application/pdf http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-470962 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac592f eng eng Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära Univ Oxford, Atmospher Ocean & Planetary Phys, Oxford, England. Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci, Uppsala, Sweden.;Stockholm Univ, Dept Meteorol, Stockholm, Sweden.;Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Stockholm, Sweden. Univ Gothenburg, Dept Earth Sci, Gothenburg, Sweden. IOP Publishing Environmental Research Letters, 2022, 17:4, orcid:0000-0002-9433-8066 orcid:0000-0002-2032-5211 http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-470962 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac592f ISI:000770431700001 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess atmospheric circulation Eurasian climate variability decadal trends internally-generated variability externally-forced variability Climate Research Klimatforskning Article in journal info:eu-repo/semantics/article text 2022 ftuppsalauniv https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac592f 2024-01-17T23:33:33Z The leading mode of wintertime atmospheric variability over the North Atlantic-North Eurasia sector is dominated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and accounts for more than one third of the total variability. This study explores the influences of the leading mode on decadal climate variability of Northern Eurasia. We focus on the little-explored decadal covariations of surface air temperature (SAT), snowfall, snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow cover over the region, using extensive model output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project sixth phase. Recent decadal trends (-0.92 sigma per decade) in the leading mode identified, are found to be largely a manifestation of internal climate variability (at least two thirds from the most conservative estimate). These internally-generated decadal trends strongly contributed to recent trends in SAT, snowfall, SWE and snow cover over Eurasia. External forcings should have played a minor role over Eurasia as they usually suggest opposite decadal trends to those observed. An exception is found for snowfall and SWE in east Eurasia, for which external forcings may have driven a large part of the recent upward trends, equally as important as the NAO-dominated mode. This points to a complex interplay between internally-generated and externally-forced climate variability over Northern Eurasia. Model discrepancies are identified in reproducing the linkages between the leading mode and the Eurasian surface climate variability. The internally-generated variability of this leading mode thus represents a large source of uncertainty in future decadal climate projections over Eurasia and, due to the memory effects of snow, also in modelling springtime climate variability. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Uppsala University: Publications (DiVA) Environmental Research Letters 17 4 044025 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Uppsala University: Publications (DiVA) |
op_collection_id |
ftuppsalauniv |
language |
English |
topic |
atmospheric circulation Eurasian climate variability decadal trends internally-generated variability externally-forced variability Climate Research Klimatforskning |
spellingShingle |
atmospheric circulation Eurasian climate variability decadal trends internally-generated variability externally-forced variability Climate Research Klimatforskning Ye, Kunhui Messori, Gabriele Chen, Deliang Woollings, Tim An NAO-dominated mode of atmospheric circulation drives large decadal changes in wintertime surface climate and snow mass over Eurasia |
topic_facet |
atmospheric circulation Eurasian climate variability decadal trends internally-generated variability externally-forced variability Climate Research Klimatforskning |
description |
The leading mode of wintertime atmospheric variability over the North Atlantic-North Eurasia sector is dominated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and accounts for more than one third of the total variability. This study explores the influences of the leading mode on decadal climate variability of Northern Eurasia. We focus on the little-explored decadal covariations of surface air temperature (SAT), snowfall, snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow cover over the region, using extensive model output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project sixth phase. Recent decadal trends (-0.92 sigma per decade) in the leading mode identified, are found to be largely a manifestation of internal climate variability (at least two thirds from the most conservative estimate). These internally-generated decadal trends strongly contributed to recent trends in SAT, snowfall, SWE and snow cover over Eurasia. External forcings should have played a minor role over Eurasia as they usually suggest opposite decadal trends to those observed. An exception is found for snowfall and SWE in east Eurasia, for which external forcings may have driven a large part of the recent upward trends, equally as important as the NAO-dominated mode. This points to a complex interplay between internally-generated and externally-forced climate variability over Northern Eurasia. Model discrepancies are identified in reproducing the linkages between the leading mode and the Eurasian surface climate variability. The internally-generated variability of this leading mode thus represents a large source of uncertainty in future decadal climate projections over Eurasia and, due to the memory effects of snow, also in modelling springtime climate variability. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ye, Kunhui Messori, Gabriele Chen, Deliang Woollings, Tim |
author_facet |
Ye, Kunhui Messori, Gabriele Chen, Deliang Woollings, Tim |
author_sort |
Ye, Kunhui |
title |
An NAO-dominated mode of atmospheric circulation drives large decadal changes in wintertime surface climate and snow mass over Eurasia |
title_short |
An NAO-dominated mode of atmospheric circulation drives large decadal changes in wintertime surface climate and snow mass over Eurasia |
title_full |
An NAO-dominated mode of atmospheric circulation drives large decadal changes in wintertime surface climate and snow mass over Eurasia |
title_fullStr |
An NAO-dominated mode of atmospheric circulation drives large decadal changes in wintertime surface climate and snow mass over Eurasia |
title_full_unstemmed |
An NAO-dominated mode of atmospheric circulation drives large decadal changes in wintertime surface climate and snow mass over Eurasia |
title_sort |
nao-dominated mode of atmospheric circulation drives large decadal changes in wintertime surface climate and snow mass over eurasia |
publisher |
Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-470962 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac592f |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
Environmental Research Letters, 2022, 17:4, orcid:0000-0002-9433-8066 orcid:0000-0002-2032-5211 http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-470962 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac592f ISI:000770431700001 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac592f |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
044025 |
_version_ |
1790603940263362560 |