A spatial model for return values of warm extremes in the high Arctic
Wintertime warm extremes in the high Arctic, primarily associated with intrusions of moist airmasses from the midlatitudes, have occurred with an ostensibly high frequency in recent years. Here, we compute the temperature anomaly return values associated with such events for long return times. Our a...
Published in: | Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
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Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära
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ftuppsalauniv:oai:DiVA.org:uu-439185 2023-05-15T14:47:49+02:00 A spatial model for return values of warm extremes in the high Arctic Messori, Gabriele Wada, R. Woods, C. 2020 application/pdf http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-439185 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3877 eng eng Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden; Stockholm Univ, Dept Meteorol, Stockholm, Sweden; Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Stockholm, Sweden Univ Tokyo, Dept Ocean Technol Policy & Environm, Tokyo, Japan Stockholm Univ, Dept Meteorol, Stockholm, Sweden; Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Stockholm, Sweden Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 0035-9009, 2020, 146:733, s. 3865-3876 http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-439185 doi:10.1002/qj.3877 ISI:000568796300001 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Arctic extreme value theory moisture intrusions return values temperature extremes Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning Article in journal info:eu-repo/semantics/article text 2020 ftuppsalauniv https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3877 2023-02-23T21:55:09Z Wintertime warm extremes in the high Arctic, primarily associated with intrusions of moist airmasses from the midlatitudes, have occurred with an ostensibly high frequency in recent years. Here, we compute the temperature anomaly return values associated with such events for long return times. Our approach, which we term space-time maxima-exposure (STM-E), improves on conventional extreme value estimates performed on a single-location basis by explicitly taking into account the spatial structure of the moisture intrusions driving the temperature extremes. We specifically show that the STM-E approach provides spatially smoother return value estimates, a lower uncertainty in the parameters of the extreme value distribution fits and mitigates the single-location underestimation of the magnitude of return values of temperature extremes. De två första författarna delar förstaförfattarskapet Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Uppsala University: Publications (DiVA) Arctic Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 146 733 3865 3876 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Uppsala University: Publications (DiVA) |
op_collection_id |
ftuppsalauniv |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic extreme value theory moisture intrusions return values temperature extremes Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning |
spellingShingle |
Arctic extreme value theory moisture intrusions return values temperature extremes Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning Messori, Gabriele Wada, R. Woods, C. A spatial model for return values of warm extremes in the high Arctic |
topic_facet |
Arctic extreme value theory moisture intrusions return values temperature extremes Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning |
description |
Wintertime warm extremes in the high Arctic, primarily associated with intrusions of moist airmasses from the midlatitudes, have occurred with an ostensibly high frequency in recent years. Here, we compute the temperature anomaly return values associated with such events for long return times. Our approach, which we term space-time maxima-exposure (STM-E), improves on conventional extreme value estimates performed on a single-location basis by explicitly taking into account the spatial structure of the moisture intrusions driving the temperature extremes. We specifically show that the STM-E approach provides spatially smoother return value estimates, a lower uncertainty in the parameters of the extreme value distribution fits and mitigates the single-location underestimation of the magnitude of return values of temperature extremes. De två första författarna delar förstaförfattarskapet |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Messori, Gabriele Wada, R. Woods, C. |
author_facet |
Messori, Gabriele Wada, R. Woods, C. |
author_sort |
Messori, Gabriele |
title |
A spatial model for return values of warm extremes in the high Arctic |
title_short |
A spatial model for return values of warm extremes in the high Arctic |
title_full |
A spatial model for return values of warm extremes in the high Arctic |
title_fullStr |
A spatial model for return values of warm extremes in the high Arctic |
title_full_unstemmed |
A spatial model for return values of warm extremes in the high Arctic |
title_sort |
spatial model for return values of warm extremes in the high arctic |
publisher |
Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-439185 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3877 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_relation |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 0035-9009, 2020, 146:733, s. 3865-3876 http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-439185 doi:10.1002/qj.3877 ISI:000568796300001 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3877 |
container_title |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
container_volume |
146 |
container_issue |
733 |
container_start_page |
3865 |
op_container_end_page |
3876 |
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1766318936988581888 |