Accelerating future mass loss of Svalbard glaciers from a multi-model ensemble
Projected climate warming and wettening will have a major impact on the state of glaciers and seasonal snow in High Arctic regions. Following up on a historical simulation (1957–2018) for Svalbard, we make future projections of glacier climatic mass balance (CMB), snow conditions on glaciers and lan...
Published in: | Journal of Glaciology |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-434933 https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.2 |
id |
ftuppsalauniv:oai:DiVA.org:uu-434933 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftuppsalauniv:oai:DiVA.org:uu-434933 2024-02-11T10:01:23+01:00 Accelerating future mass loss of Svalbard glaciers from a multi-model ensemble Van Pelt, Ward J. J. Schuler, Thomas V. Pohjola, Veijo A. Pettersson, Rickard 2021 application/pdf http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-434933 https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.2 eng eng Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära Journal of Glaciology, 0022-1430, 2021, 67:263, s. 485-499 orcid:0000-0003-4839-7900 orcid:0000-0001-6851-1673 orcid:0000-0002-6961-0128 http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-434933 doi:10.1017/jog.2021.2 ISI:000647771400007 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess climate change glacier discharge glacier mass balance glacier modelling seasonal snow Physical Geography Naturgeografi Article in journal info:eu-repo/semantics/article text 2021 ftuppsalauniv https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.2 2024-01-17T23:32:06Z Projected climate warming and wettening will have a major impact on the state of glaciers and seasonal snow in High Arctic regions. Following up on a historical simulation (1957–2018) for Svalbard, we make future projections of glacier climatic mass balance (CMB), snow conditions on glaciers and land, and runoff, under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios for 2019–60. We find that the average CMB for Svalbard glaciers, which was weakly positive during 1957–2018, becomes negative at an accelerating rate during 2019–60 for both RCP scenarios. Modelled mass loss is most pronounced in southern Svalbard, where the equilibrium line altitude is predicted to rise well above the hypsometry peak, leading to the first occurrences of zero accumulation-area ratio already by the 2030s. In parallel with firn line retreat, the total pore volume in snow and firn drops by as much as 70–80% in 2060, compared to 2018. Total refreezing remains largely unchanged, despite a marked change in the seasonal pattern towards increased refreezing in winter. Finally, we find pronounced shortening of the snow season, while combined runoff from glaciers and land more than doubles from 1957–2018 to 2019–60, for both scenarios. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change glacier Journal of Glaciology Svalbard Uppsala University: Publications (DiVA) Arctic Svalbard Journal of Glaciology 67 263 485 499 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Uppsala University: Publications (DiVA) |
op_collection_id |
ftuppsalauniv |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change glacier discharge glacier mass balance glacier modelling seasonal snow Physical Geography Naturgeografi |
spellingShingle |
climate change glacier discharge glacier mass balance glacier modelling seasonal snow Physical Geography Naturgeografi Van Pelt, Ward J. J. Schuler, Thomas V. Pohjola, Veijo A. Pettersson, Rickard Accelerating future mass loss of Svalbard glaciers from a multi-model ensemble |
topic_facet |
climate change glacier discharge glacier mass balance glacier modelling seasonal snow Physical Geography Naturgeografi |
description |
Projected climate warming and wettening will have a major impact on the state of glaciers and seasonal snow in High Arctic regions. Following up on a historical simulation (1957–2018) for Svalbard, we make future projections of glacier climatic mass balance (CMB), snow conditions on glaciers and land, and runoff, under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios for 2019–60. We find that the average CMB for Svalbard glaciers, which was weakly positive during 1957–2018, becomes negative at an accelerating rate during 2019–60 for both RCP scenarios. Modelled mass loss is most pronounced in southern Svalbard, where the equilibrium line altitude is predicted to rise well above the hypsometry peak, leading to the first occurrences of zero accumulation-area ratio already by the 2030s. In parallel with firn line retreat, the total pore volume in snow and firn drops by as much as 70–80% in 2060, compared to 2018. Total refreezing remains largely unchanged, despite a marked change in the seasonal pattern towards increased refreezing in winter. Finally, we find pronounced shortening of the snow season, while combined runoff from glaciers and land more than doubles from 1957–2018 to 2019–60, for both scenarios. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Van Pelt, Ward J. J. Schuler, Thomas V. Pohjola, Veijo A. Pettersson, Rickard |
author_facet |
Van Pelt, Ward J. J. Schuler, Thomas V. Pohjola, Veijo A. Pettersson, Rickard |
author_sort |
Van Pelt, Ward J. J. |
title |
Accelerating future mass loss of Svalbard glaciers from a multi-model ensemble |
title_short |
Accelerating future mass loss of Svalbard glaciers from a multi-model ensemble |
title_full |
Accelerating future mass loss of Svalbard glaciers from a multi-model ensemble |
title_fullStr |
Accelerating future mass loss of Svalbard glaciers from a multi-model ensemble |
title_full_unstemmed |
Accelerating future mass loss of Svalbard glaciers from a multi-model ensemble |
title_sort |
accelerating future mass loss of svalbard glaciers from a multi-model ensemble |
publisher |
Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-434933 https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.2 |
geographic |
Arctic Svalbard |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Svalbard |
genre |
Arctic Climate change glacier Journal of Glaciology Svalbard |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change glacier Journal of Glaciology Svalbard |
op_relation |
Journal of Glaciology, 0022-1430, 2021, 67:263, s. 485-499 orcid:0000-0003-4839-7900 orcid:0000-0001-6851-1673 orcid:0000-0002-6961-0128 http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-434933 doi:10.1017/jog.2021.2 ISI:000647771400007 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.2 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
container_volume |
67 |
container_issue |
263 |
container_start_page |
485 |
op_container_end_page |
499 |
_version_ |
1790597198036074496 |