GlacierMIP - A model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections
Global-scale 21st-century glacier mass change projections from six published global glacier models are systematically compared as part of the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project. In total 214 projections of annual glacier mass and area forced by 25 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and four Repres...
Published in: | Journal of Glaciology |
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Language: | English |
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Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära
2019
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Online Access: | http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-389820 https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.22 |
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ftuppsalauniv:oai:DiVA.org:uu-389820 2023-05-15T14:00:26+02:00 GlacierMIP - A model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections Hock, Regine Bliss, Andrew Marzeion, Ben Giesen, Rianne H. Hirabayashi, Yukiko Huss, Matthias Radic, Valentina Slangen, Aimee B. A. 2019 application/pdf http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-389820 https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.22 eng eng Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Inst Geophys, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA Colorado State Univ, Dept Anthropol & Geog, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA Univ Bremen, Inst Geog, Bremen, Germany;Univ Bremen, MARUM Ctr Marine Environm Sci, Bremen, Germany Univ Utrecht, Inst Marine & Atmospher Res, Utrecht, Netherlands Shibaura Inst Technol, Dept Civil Engn, Tokyo, Japan Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Lab Hydraul Hydrol & Glaciol VAW, Zurich, Switzerland;Univ Fribourg, Dept Geosci, Fribourg, Switzerland Univ British Columbia, Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci Dept, Vancouver, BC, Canada NIOZ Royal Netherlands Inst Sea Res, Dept Estuarine & Delta Syst, Yerseke, Netherlands;Univ Utrecht, Yerseke, Netherlands Journal of Glaciology, 0022-1430, 2019, 65:251, s. 453-467 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/226375 http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-389820 doi:10.1017/jog.2019.22 ISI:000470734900008 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess glacier modeling glacier mass balance ice and climate mountain glaciers Physical Geography Naturgeografi Climate Research Klimatforskning Article in journal info:eu-repo/semantics/article text 2019 ftuppsalauniv https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.22 2023-02-23T21:52:13Z Global-scale 21st-century glacier mass change projections from six published global glacier models are systematically compared as part of the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project. In total 214 projections of annual glacier mass and area forced by 25 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios and aggregated into 19 glacier regions are considered. Global mass loss of all glaciers (outside the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets) by 2100 relative to 2015 averaged over all model runs varies from 18 +/- 7% (RCP2.6) to 36 +/- 11% (RCP8.5) corresponding to 94 +/- 25 and 200 +/- 44 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE), respectively. Regional relative mass changes by 2100 correlate linearly with relative area changes. For RCP8.5 three models project global rates of mass loss (multi-GCM means) of >3 mm SLE per year towards the end of the century. Projections vary considerably between regions, and also among the glacier models. Global glacier mass changes per degree global air temperature rise tend to increase with more pronounced warming indicating that mass-balance sensitivities to temperature change are not constant. Differences in glacier mass projections among the models are attributed to differences in model physics, calibration and downscaling procedures, initial ice volumes and varying ensembles of forcing GCMs. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic glacier Greenland Journal of Glaciology Uppsala University: Publications (DiVA) Antarctic Greenland The Antarctic Journal of Glaciology 65 251 453 467 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Uppsala University: Publications (DiVA) |
op_collection_id |
ftuppsalauniv |
language |
English |
topic |
glacier modeling glacier mass balance ice and climate mountain glaciers Physical Geography Naturgeografi Climate Research Klimatforskning |
spellingShingle |
glacier modeling glacier mass balance ice and climate mountain glaciers Physical Geography Naturgeografi Climate Research Klimatforskning Hock, Regine Bliss, Andrew Marzeion, Ben Giesen, Rianne H. Hirabayashi, Yukiko Huss, Matthias Radic, Valentina Slangen, Aimee B. A. GlacierMIP - A model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections |
topic_facet |
glacier modeling glacier mass balance ice and climate mountain glaciers Physical Geography Naturgeografi Climate Research Klimatforskning |
description |
Global-scale 21st-century glacier mass change projections from six published global glacier models are systematically compared as part of the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project. In total 214 projections of annual glacier mass and area forced by 25 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios and aggregated into 19 glacier regions are considered. Global mass loss of all glaciers (outside the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets) by 2100 relative to 2015 averaged over all model runs varies from 18 +/- 7% (RCP2.6) to 36 +/- 11% (RCP8.5) corresponding to 94 +/- 25 and 200 +/- 44 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE), respectively. Regional relative mass changes by 2100 correlate linearly with relative area changes. For RCP8.5 three models project global rates of mass loss (multi-GCM means) of >3 mm SLE per year towards the end of the century. Projections vary considerably between regions, and also among the glacier models. Global glacier mass changes per degree global air temperature rise tend to increase with more pronounced warming indicating that mass-balance sensitivities to temperature change are not constant. Differences in glacier mass projections among the models are attributed to differences in model physics, calibration and downscaling procedures, initial ice volumes and varying ensembles of forcing GCMs. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hock, Regine Bliss, Andrew Marzeion, Ben Giesen, Rianne H. Hirabayashi, Yukiko Huss, Matthias Radic, Valentina Slangen, Aimee B. A. |
author_facet |
Hock, Regine Bliss, Andrew Marzeion, Ben Giesen, Rianne H. Hirabayashi, Yukiko Huss, Matthias Radic, Valentina Slangen, Aimee B. A. |
author_sort |
Hock, Regine |
title |
GlacierMIP - A model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections |
title_short |
GlacierMIP - A model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections |
title_full |
GlacierMIP - A model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections |
title_fullStr |
GlacierMIP - A model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections |
title_full_unstemmed |
GlacierMIP - A model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections |
title_sort |
glaciermip - a model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections |
publisher |
Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-389820 https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.22 |
geographic |
Antarctic Greenland The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Greenland The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic glacier Greenland Journal of Glaciology |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic glacier Greenland Journal of Glaciology |
op_relation |
Journal of Glaciology, 0022-1430, 2019, 65:251, s. 453-467 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/226375 http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-389820 doi:10.1017/jog.2019.22 ISI:000470734900008 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.22 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
container_volume |
65 |
container_issue |
251 |
container_start_page |
453 |
op_container_end_page |
467 |
_version_ |
1766269527412178944 |