Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment
As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimat...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära
2016
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-295589 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 |
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Uppsala University: Publications (DiVA) |
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ftuppsalauniv |
language |
English |
topic |
permafrost carbon Arctic boreal wildfire dissolved organic carbon particulate organic carbon coastal erosion Environmental Sciences Miljövetenskap |
spellingShingle |
permafrost carbon Arctic boreal wildfire dissolved organic carbon particulate organic carbon coastal erosion Environmental Sciences Miljövetenskap Abbott, Benjamin W. Jones, Jeremy B. Schuur, Edward A. G. Chapin, F. Stuart, III Bowden, William B. Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia Epstein, Howard E. Flannigan, Michael D. Harms, Tamara K. Hollingsworth, Teresa N. Mack, Michelle C. McGuire, A. David Natali, Susan M. Rocha, Adrian V. Tank, Suzanne E. Turetsky, Merritt R. Vonk, Jorien E. Wickland, Kimberly P. Aiken, George R. Alexander, Heather D. Amon, Rainer M. W. Benscoter, Brian W. Bergeron, Yves Bishop, Kevin Blarquez, Olivier Bond-Lamberty, Ben Breen, Amy L. Buffam, Ishi Cai, Yihua Carcaillet, Christopher Carey, Sean K. Chen, Jing M. Chen, Han Y. H. Christensen, Torben R. Cooper, Lee W. Cornelissen, J. Hans C. de Groot, William J. DeLuca, Thomas H. Dorrepaal, Ellen Fetcher, Ned Finlay, Jacques C. Forbes, Bruce C. French, Nancy H. F. Gauthier, Sylvie Girardin, Martin P. Goetz, Scott J. Goldammer, Johann G. Gough, Laura Grogan, Paul Guo, Laodong Higuera, Philip E. Hinzman, Larry Hu, Feng Sheng Hugelius, Gustaf Jafarov, Elchin E. Jandt, Randi Johnstone, Jill F. Karlsson, Jan Kasischke, Eric S. Kattner, Gerhard Kelly, Ryan Keuper, Frida Kling, George W. Kortelainen, Pirkko Kouki, Jari Kuhry, Peter Laudon, Hjalmar Laurion, Isabelle Macdonald, Robie W. Mann, Paul J. Martikainen, Pertti J. McClelland, James W. Molau, Ulf Oberbauer, Steven F. Olefeldt, David Pare, David Parisien, Marc-Andre Payette, Serge Peng, Changhui Pokrovsky, Oleg S. Rastetter, Edward B. Raymond, Peter A. Raynolds, Martha K. Rein, Guillermo Reynolds, James F. Robards, Martin Rogers, Brendan M. Schaedel, Christina Schaefer, Kevin Schmidt, Inger K. Shvidenko, Anatoly Sky, Jasper Spencer, Robert G. M. Starr, Gregory Striegl, Robert G. Teisserenc, Roman Tranvik, Lars J. Virtanen, Tarmo Welker, Jeffrey M. Zimov, Sergei Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment |
topic_facet |
permafrost carbon Arctic boreal wildfire dissolved organic carbon particulate organic carbon coastal erosion Environmental Sciences Miljövetenskap |
description |
As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Abbott, Benjamin W. Jones, Jeremy B. Schuur, Edward A. G. Chapin, F. Stuart, III Bowden, William B. Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia Epstein, Howard E. Flannigan, Michael D. Harms, Tamara K. Hollingsworth, Teresa N. Mack, Michelle C. McGuire, A. David Natali, Susan M. Rocha, Adrian V. Tank, Suzanne E. Turetsky, Merritt R. Vonk, Jorien E. Wickland, Kimberly P. Aiken, George R. Alexander, Heather D. Amon, Rainer M. W. Benscoter, Brian W. Bergeron, Yves Bishop, Kevin Blarquez, Olivier Bond-Lamberty, Ben Breen, Amy L. Buffam, Ishi Cai, Yihua Carcaillet, Christopher Carey, Sean K. Chen, Jing M. Chen, Han Y. H. Christensen, Torben R. Cooper, Lee W. Cornelissen, J. Hans C. de Groot, William J. DeLuca, Thomas H. Dorrepaal, Ellen Fetcher, Ned Finlay, Jacques C. Forbes, Bruce C. French, Nancy H. F. Gauthier, Sylvie Girardin, Martin P. Goetz, Scott J. Goldammer, Johann G. Gough, Laura Grogan, Paul Guo, Laodong Higuera, Philip E. Hinzman, Larry Hu, Feng Sheng Hugelius, Gustaf Jafarov, Elchin E. Jandt, Randi Johnstone, Jill F. Karlsson, Jan Kasischke, Eric S. Kattner, Gerhard Kelly, Ryan Keuper, Frida Kling, George W. Kortelainen, Pirkko Kouki, Jari Kuhry, Peter Laudon, Hjalmar Laurion, Isabelle Macdonald, Robie W. Mann, Paul J. Martikainen, Pertti J. McClelland, James W. Molau, Ulf Oberbauer, Steven F. Olefeldt, David Pare, David Parisien, Marc-Andre Payette, Serge Peng, Changhui Pokrovsky, Oleg S. Rastetter, Edward B. Raymond, Peter A. Raynolds, Martha K. Rein, Guillermo Reynolds, James F. Robards, Martin Rogers, Brendan M. Schaedel, Christina Schaefer, Kevin Schmidt, Inger K. Shvidenko, Anatoly Sky, Jasper Spencer, Robert G. M. Starr, Gregory Striegl, Robert G. Teisserenc, Roman Tranvik, Lars J. Virtanen, Tarmo Welker, Jeffrey M. Zimov, Sergei |
author_facet |
Abbott, Benjamin W. Jones, Jeremy B. Schuur, Edward A. G. Chapin, F. Stuart, III Bowden, William B. Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia Epstein, Howard E. Flannigan, Michael D. Harms, Tamara K. Hollingsworth, Teresa N. Mack, Michelle C. McGuire, A. David Natali, Susan M. Rocha, Adrian V. Tank, Suzanne E. Turetsky, Merritt R. Vonk, Jorien E. Wickland, Kimberly P. Aiken, George R. Alexander, Heather D. Amon, Rainer M. W. Benscoter, Brian W. Bergeron, Yves Bishop, Kevin Blarquez, Olivier Bond-Lamberty, Ben Breen, Amy L. Buffam, Ishi Cai, Yihua Carcaillet, Christopher Carey, Sean K. Chen, Jing M. Chen, Han Y. H. Christensen, Torben R. Cooper, Lee W. Cornelissen, J. Hans C. de Groot, William J. DeLuca, Thomas H. Dorrepaal, Ellen Fetcher, Ned Finlay, Jacques C. Forbes, Bruce C. French, Nancy H. F. Gauthier, Sylvie Girardin, Martin P. Goetz, Scott J. Goldammer, Johann G. Gough, Laura Grogan, Paul Guo, Laodong Higuera, Philip E. Hinzman, Larry Hu, Feng Sheng Hugelius, Gustaf Jafarov, Elchin E. Jandt, Randi Johnstone, Jill F. Karlsson, Jan Kasischke, Eric S. Kattner, Gerhard Kelly, Ryan Keuper, Frida Kling, George W. Kortelainen, Pirkko Kouki, Jari Kuhry, Peter Laudon, Hjalmar Laurion, Isabelle Macdonald, Robie W. Mann, Paul J. Martikainen, Pertti J. McClelland, James W. Molau, Ulf Oberbauer, Steven F. Olefeldt, David Pare, David Parisien, Marc-Andre Payette, Serge Peng, Changhui Pokrovsky, Oleg S. Rastetter, Edward B. Raymond, Peter A. Raynolds, Martha K. Rein, Guillermo Reynolds, James F. Robards, Martin Rogers, Brendan M. Schaedel, Christina Schaefer, Kevin Schmidt, Inger K. Shvidenko, Anatoly Sky, Jasper Spencer, Robert G. M. Starr, Gregory Striegl, Robert G. Teisserenc, Roman Tranvik, Lars J. Virtanen, Tarmo Welker, Jeffrey M. Zimov, Sergei |
author_sort |
Abbott, Benjamin W. |
title |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment |
title_short |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment |
title_full |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment |
title_fullStr |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment |
title_full_unstemmed |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment |
title_sort |
biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment |
publisher |
Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-295589 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change permafrost |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change permafrost |
op_relation |
Environmental Research Letters, 2016, 11:3, orcid:0000-0003-3509-8266 http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-295589 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 ISI:000373401400017 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
034014 |
_version_ |
1790596486882394112 |
spelling |
ftuppsalauniv:oai:DiVA.org:uu-295589 2024-02-11T10:00:46+01:00 Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment Abbott, Benjamin W. Jones, Jeremy B. Schuur, Edward A. G. Chapin, F. Stuart, III Bowden, William B. Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia Epstein, Howard E. Flannigan, Michael D. Harms, Tamara K. Hollingsworth, Teresa N. Mack, Michelle C. McGuire, A. David Natali, Susan M. Rocha, Adrian V. Tank, Suzanne E. Turetsky, Merritt R. Vonk, Jorien E. Wickland, Kimberly P. Aiken, George R. Alexander, Heather D. Amon, Rainer M. W. Benscoter, Brian W. Bergeron, Yves Bishop, Kevin Blarquez, Olivier Bond-Lamberty, Ben Breen, Amy L. Buffam, Ishi Cai, Yihua Carcaillet, Christopher Carey, Sean K. Chen, Jing M. Chen, Han Y. H. Christensen, Torben R. Cooper, Lee W. Cornelissen, J. Hans C. de Groot, William J. DeLuca, Thomas H. Dorrepaal, Ellen Fetcher, Ned Finlay, Jacques C. Forbes, Bruce C. French, Nancy H. F. Gauthier, Sylvie Girardin, Martin P. Goetz, Scott J. Goldammer, Johann G. Gough, Laura Grogan, Paul Guo, Laodong Higuera, Philip E. Hinzman, Larry Hu, Feng Sheng Hugelius, Gustaf Jafarov, Elchin E. Jandt, Randi Johnstone, Jill F. Karlsson, Jan Kasischke, Eric S. Kattner, Gerhard Kelly, Ryan Keuper, Frida Kling, George W. Kortelainen, Pirkko Kouki, Jari Kuhry, Peter Laudon, Hjalmar Laurion, Isabelle Macdonald, Robie W. Mann, Paul J. Martikainen, Pertti J. McClelland, James W. Molau, Ulf Oberbauer, Steven F. Olefeldt, David Pare, David Parisien, Marc-Andre Payette, Serge Peng, Changhui Pokrovsky, Oleg S. Rastetter, Edward B. Raymond, Peter A. Raynolds, Martha K. Rein, Guillermo Reynolds, James F. Robards, Martin Rogers, Brendan M. Schaedel, Christina Schaefer, Kevin Schmidt, Inger K. Shvidenko, Anatoly Sky, Jasper Spencer, Robert G. M. Starr, Gregory Striegl, Robert G. Teisserenc, Roman Tranvik, Lars J. Virtanen, Tarmo Welker, Jeffrey M. Zimov, Sergei 2016 application/pdf http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-295589 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 eng eng Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära Uppsala universitet, Limnologi Univ Rennes 1, OSUR, CNRS, UMR ECOBIO 6553, F-35014 Rennes, France.;Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Inst Arctic Biol, Fairbanks, AK USA.;Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Dept Biology& Wildlife, Fairbanks, AK USA. Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Inst Arctic Biol, Fairbanks, AK USA.;Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Dept Biology& Wildlife, Fairbanks, AK USA. No Arizona Univ, Ctr Ecosyst Sci & Soc, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA. Univ Vermont, Rubenstein Sch Environm & Nat Resources, Burlington, VT 05405 USA. Univ Virginia, Dept Environm Sci, Charlottesville, VA 22903 USA. Univ Alberta, Dept Renewable Resources, Edmonton, AB T6G 2M7, Canada. Univ Alaska Fairbanks, PNW Res Stn, USDA Forest Serv, Fairbanks, AK USA. Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Alaska Cooperat Fish & Wildlife Res Unit, US Geol Survey, Anchorage, AK USA. Woods Hole Res Ctr, Woods Hole, MA USA. Univ Notre Dame, Dept Biol Sci, Notre Dame, IN 46556 USA.;Univ Notre Dame, Environm Change Initiat, Notre Dame, IN 46556 USA. Univ Alberta, Dept Biol Sci, Edmonton, AB T6G 2M7, Canada. Univ Guelph, Dept Integrat Biol, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Dept Earth Sci, Amsterdam, Netherlands. US Geol Survey, Natl Res Program, Boulder, CO USA. Mississippi State Univ, Forest & Wildlife Res Ctr, Mississippi State, MS 39762 USA. Texas A&M Univ, Galveston, TX USA. Florida Atlantic Univ, Boca Raton, FL 33431 USA. Univ Quebec Abitibi Temiscamingue, Forest Res Inst, Rouyn Noranda, PQ, Canada. wedish Univ Agr Sci, Dept Aquat Sci & Assessment, S-90183 Umea, Sweden. Univ Montreal, Dept Geog, Montreal, PQ H3C 3J7, Canada. Pacific NW Natl Lab, Richland, WA 99352 USA. Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Int Arctic Res Ctr, Scenarios Network Alaska & Arctic Planning, Fairbanks, AK USA. Univ Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH 45221 USA. Xiamen Univ, State Key Lab Marine Environm Sci, Xiamen, Peoples R China. Ecole Prat Hautes Etud, UMR5023, CNRS Lyon 1, Ly Environmental Research Letters, 2016, 11:3, orcid:0000-0003-3509-8266 http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-295589 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 ISI:000373401400017 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess permafrost carbon Arctic boreal wildfire dissolved organic carbon particulate organic carbon coastal erosion Environmental Sciences Miljövetenskap Article in journal info:eu-repo/semantics/article text 2016 ftuppsalauniv https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 2024-01-17T23:33:35Z As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change permafrost Uppsala University: Publications (DiVA) Arctic Environmental Research Letters 11 3 034014 |