Past and potential future population dynamics of three grouse species using ecological and whole genome coalescent modeling
Studying demographic history of species provides insight into how the past has shaped the current levels of overall biodiversity and genetic composition of species, but also how these species may react to future perturbations. Here we investigated the demographic history of the willow grouse (Lagopu...
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Uppsala universitet, Zooekologi
2018
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ftuppsalauniv:oai:DiVA.org:uu-295480 2024-02-11T10:05:37+01:00 Past and potential future population dynamics of three grouse species using ecological and whole genome coalescent modeling Kozma, Radoslav Lillie, Mette Benito, Blas M. Svenning, Jens-Christian Höglund, Jacob 2018 application/pdf http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-295480 https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4163 eng eng Uppsala universitet, Zooekologi Univ Gothenburg, Dept Biol & Environm Sci, Gothenburg, Sweden Department of Bioscience, Section for Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, University of Aarhus, Ny Munkegade, building 1540, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark Ecology and Evolution, 2018, 8:13, s. 6671-6681 orcid:0000-0001-8714-0812 http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-295480 doi:10.1002/ece3.4163 PMID 30038766 ISI:000439769400025 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess climate change demographic history Pleistocene PSMC species distribution modelling Tetraoninae Ecology Ekologi Evolutionary Biology Evolutionsbiologi Article in journal info:eu-repo/semantics/article text 2018 ftuppsalauniv https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4163 2024-01-17T23:33:38Z Studying demographic history of species provides insight into how the past has shaped the current levels of overall biodiversity and genetic composition of species, but also how these species may react to future perturbations. Here we investigated the demographic history of the willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus), rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta), and black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) through the Late Pleistocene using two complementary methods and whole genome data. Species distribution modeling (SDM) allowed us to estimate the total range size during the Last Interglacial (LIG) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) as well as to indicate potential population subdivisions. Pairwise Sequentially Markovian Coalescent (PSMC) allowed us to assess fluctuations in effective population size across the same period. Additionally, we used SDM to forecast the effect of future climate change on the three species over the next 50years. We found that SDM predicts the largest range size for the cold-adapted willow grouse and rock ptarmigan during the LGM. PSMC captured intraspecific population dynamics within the last glacial period, such that the willow grouse and rock ptarmigan showed multiple bottlenecks signifying recolonization events following the termination of the LGM. We also see signals of population subdivision during the last glacial period in the black grouse, but more data are needed to strengthen this hypothesis. All three species are likely to experience range contractions under future warming, with the strongest effect on willow grouse and rock ptarmigan due to their limited potential for northward expansion. Overall, by combining these two modeling approaches, we have provided a multifaceted examination of the biogeography of these species and how they have responded to climate change in the past. These results help us understand how cold-adapted species may respond to future climate changes. Title in Thesis list of papers: Past and potential future dynamics of three grouse species using ecological and whole genome ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Lagopus muta rock ptarmigan Uppsala University: Publications (DiVA) Ecology and Evolution 8 13 6671 6681 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Uppsala University: Publications (DiVA) |
op_collection_id |
ftuppsalauniv |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change demographic history Pleistocene PSMC species distribution modelling Tetraoninae Ecology Ekologi Evolutionary Biology Evolutionsbiologi |
spellingShingle |
climate change demographic history Pleistocene PSMC species distribution modelling Tetraoninae Ecology Ekologi Evolutionary Biology Evolutionsbiologi Kozma, Radoslav Lillie, Mette Benito, Blas M. Svenning, Jens-Christian Höglund, Jacob Past and potential future population dynamics of three grouse species using ecological and whole genome coalescent modeling |
topic_facet |
climate change demographic history Pleistocene PSMC species distribution modelling Tetraoninae Ecology Ekologi Evolutionary Biology Evolutionsbiologi |
description |
Studying demographic history of species provides insight into how the past has shaped the current levels of overall biodiversity and genetic composition of species, but also how these species may react to future perturbations. Here we investigated the demographic history of the willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus), rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta), and black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) through the Late Pleistocene using two complementary methods and whole genome data. Species distribution modeling (SDM) allowed us to estimate the total range size during the Last Interglacial (LIG) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) as well as to indicate potential population subdivisions. Pairwise Sequentially Markovian Coalescent (PSMC) allowed us to assess fluctuations in effective population size across the same period. Additionally, we used SDM to forecast the effect of future climate change on the three species over the next 50years. We found that SDM predicts the largest range size for the cold-adapted willow grouse and rock ptarmigan during the LGM. PSMC captured intraspecific population dynamics within the last glacial period, such that the willow grouse and rock ptarmigan showed multiple bottlenecks signifying recolonization events following the termination of the LGM. We also see signals of population subdivision during the last glacial period in the black grouse, but more data are needed to strengthen this hypothesis. All three species are likely to experience range contractions under future warming, with the strongest effect on willow grouse and rock ptarmigan due to their limited potential for northward expansion. Overall, by combining these two modeling approaches, we have provided a multifaceted examination of the biogeography of these species and how they have responded to climate change in the past. These results help us understand how cold-adapted species may respond to future climate changes. Title in Thesis list of papers: Past and potential future dynamics of three grouse species using ecological and whole genome ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kozma, Radoslav Lillie, Mette Benito, Blas M. Svenning, Jens-Christian Höglund, Jacob |
author_facet |
Kozma, Radoslav Lillie, Mette Benito, Blas M. Svenning, Jens-Christian Höglund, Jacob |
author_sort |
Kozma, Radoslav |
title |
Past and potential future population dynamics of three grouse species using ecological and whole genome coalescent modeling |
title_short |
Past and potential future population dynamics of three grouse species using ecological and whole genome coalescent modeling |
title_full |
Past and potential future population dynamics of three grouse species using ecological and whole genome coalescent modeling |
title_fullStr |
Past and potential future population dynamics of three grouse species using ecological and whole genome coalescent modeling |
title_full_unstemmed |
Past and potential future population dynamics of three grouse species using ecological and whole genome coalescent modeling |
title_sort |
past and potential future population dynamics of three grouse species using ecological and whole genome coalescent modeling |
publisher |
Uppsala universitet, Zooekologi |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-295480 https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4163 |
genre |
Lagopus muta rock ptarmigan |
genre_facet |
Lagopus muta rock ptarmigan |
op_relation |
Ecology and Evolution, 2018, 8:13, s. 6671-6681 orcid:0000-0001-8714-0812 http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-295480 doi:10.1002/ece3.4163 PMID 30038766 ISI:000439769400025 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4163 |
container_title |
Ecology and Evolution |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
13 |
container_start_page |
6671 |
op_container_end_page |
6681 |
_version_ |
1790602715883110400 |