On the Relation Between Arctic Sea Ice and European Cold Winters During the Little Ice Age 1400-1850
This study aims to investigate the possible historical correlation between sea ice reduction in the Arctic and cold winters in Central Europe. The study is conducted over a cold period in Europe known as the Little Ice Age (LIA), 1400–1850, and uses a Global Climate Model with eight different forcin...
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Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära
2014
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ftuppsalauniv:oai:DiVA.org:uu-223656 2023-05-15T14:53:44+02:00 On the Relation Between Arctic Sea Ice and European Cold Winters During the Little Ice Age 1400-1850 Silver, Kristian 2014 application/pdf http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-223656 eng eng Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära Examensarbete vid Institutionen för geovetenskaper, 1650-6553 286 http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-223656 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Barents Sea Kara Sea sea ice reduction Arctic midlatitudes feedback effect Last Millennium historical climate change climate modeling threshold global warming cold winters Little Ice Age North Atlantic oscillation LIA NAO PMIP3 CMIP5 NASA-GISS Barents hav Karahavet reducerat istäcke Arktis mellanbredderna återkopplingseffekt historiska klimatförändringar klimatmodellering tröskeleffekt global uppvärmning kalla vintrar "Lilla istiden" Nordatlantiska oscillationen Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning Climate Research Klimatforskning Student thesis info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis text 2014 ftuppsalauniv 2023-02-23T21:52:07Z This study aims to investigate the possible historical correlation between sea ice reduction in the Arctic and cold winters in Central Europe. The study is conducted over a cold period in Europe known as the Little Ice Age (LIA), 1400–1850, and uses a Global Climate Model with eight different forcing scenarios. Temperature data from Central Europe and ice data from the Arctic are extracted from the model and compared. The assumed relationship has been presented in various forms in the last few years. Essentially, it is argued that less sea ice in a particular area in the Arctic (around the Barents and Kara Seas) could affect largescale atmospheric circulation patterns, including the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), and then give rise to cold European winters. Thus, this essay also recreates the NAO over the same historical period. The results of this study are not, however, able to confirm this theory; over longer periods the identified correlation is rather the opposite. It is speculated that this mechanism could include a threshold, where it might not be noticeable for historical, heavier ice-conditions; but more so for future, global warming scenarios. However, a correlation tendency is identified in some of the model runs, suggesting that a feedback effect such as this, if it existed, might be more likely to affect temperatures of individual months rather than the entire winter. A very weak response is also found for the NAO itself. The model’s suitability for this kind of study is then discussed. Although it might not precisely capture each type of year-to-year comparison used in this study, it is proven to have some response to known individual events in climatological history. Finally, it is concluded that this study alone cannot disprove the proposed theory, and that further investigation is required. Denna studie syftar till att undersöka en möjlig historisk koppling mellan minskad havsis i Arktis och kalla vintrar i Centraleuropa. Studien undersöker en lång kallperiod i Europa, "Lilla istiden", som ... Bachelor Thesis Arctic Arktis Arktis* Barents hav Barents Sea Climate change Global warming Kara Sea Karahavet North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Uppsala University: Publications (DiVA) Arctic Barents Sea Kalla ENVELOPE(19.617,19.617,67.050,67.050) Kara Sea Lilla ENVELOPE(22.267,22.267,70.233,70.233) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Uppsala University: Publications (DiVA) |
op_collection_id |
ftuppsalauniv |
language |
English |
topic |
Barents Sea Kara Sea sea ice reduction Arctic midlatitudes feedback effect Last Millennium historical climate change climate modeling threshold global warming cold winters Little Ice Age North Atlantic oscillation LIA NAO PMIP3 CMIP5 NASA-GISS Barents hav Karahavet reducerat istäcke Arktis mellanbredderna återkopplingseffekt historiska klimatförändringar klimatmodellering tröskeleffekt global uppvärmning kalla vintrar "Lilla istiden" Nordatlantiska oscillationen Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning Climate Research Klimatforskning |
spellingShingle |
Barents Sea Kara Sea sea ice reduction Arctic midlatitudes feedback effect Last Millennium historical climate change climate modeling threshold global warming cold winters Little Ice Age North Atlantic oscillation LIA NAO PMIP3 CMIP5 NASA-GISS Barents hav Karahavet reducerat istäcke Arktis mellanbredderna återkopplingseffekt historiska klimatförändringar klimatmodellering tröskeleffekt global uppvärmning kalla vintrar "Lilla istiden" Nordatlantiska oscillationen Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning Climate Research Klimatforskning Silver, Kristian On the Relation Between Arctic Sea Ice and European Cold Winters During the Little Ice Age 1400-1850 |
topic_facet |
Barents Sea Kara Sea sea ice reduction Arctic midlatitudes feedback effect Last Millennium historical climate change climate modeling threshold global warming cold winters Little Ice Age North Atlantic oscillation LIA NAO PMIP3 CMIP5 NASA-GISS Barents hav Karahavet reducerat istäcke Arktis mellanbredderna återkopplingseffekt historiska klimatförändringar klimatmodellering tröskeleffekt global uppvärmning kalla vintrar "Lilla istiden" Nordatlantiska oscillationen Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning Climate Research Klimatforskning |
description |
This study aims to investigate the possible historical correlation between sea ice reduction in the Arctic and cold winters in Central Europe. The study is conducted over a cold period in Europe known as the Little Ice Age (LIA), 1400–1850, and uses a Global Climate Model with eight different forcing scenarios. Temperature data from Central Europe and ice data from the Arctic are extracted from the model and compared. The assumed relationship has been presented in various forms in the last few years. Essentially, it is argued that less sea ice in a particular area in the Arctic (around the Barents and Kara Seas) could affect largescale atmospheric circulation patterns, including the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), and then give rise to cold European winters. Thus, this essay also recreates the NAO over the same historical period. The results of this study are not, however, able to confirm this theory; over longer periods the identified correlation is rather the opposite. It is speculated that this mechanism could include a threshold, where it might not be noticeable for historical, heavier ice-conditions; but more so for future, global warming scenarios. However, a correlation tendency is identified in some of the model runs, suggesting that a feedback effect such as this, if it existed, might be more likely to affect temperatures of individual months rather than the entire winter. A very weak response is also found for the NAO itself. The model’s suitability for this kind of study is then discussed. Although it might not precisely capture each type of year-to-year comparison used in this study, it is proven to have some response to known individual events in climatological history. Finally, it is concluded that this study alone cannot disprove the proposed theory, and that further investigation is required. Denna studie syftar till att undersöka en möjlig historisk koppling mellan minskad havsis i Arktis och kalla vintrar i Centraleuropa. Studien undersöker en lång kallperiod i Europa, "Lilla istiden", som ... |
format |
Bachelor Thesis |
author |
Silver, Kristian |
author_facet |
Silver, Kristian |
author_sort |
Silver, Kristian |
title |
On the Relation Between Arctic Sea Ice and European Cold Winters During the Little Ice Age 1400-1850 |
title_short |
On the Relation Between Arctic Sea Ice and European Cold Winters During the Little Ice Age 1400-1850 |
title_full |
On the Relation Between Arctic Sea Ice and European Cold Winters During the Little Ice Age 1400-1850 |
title_fullStr |
On the Relation Between Arctic Sea Ice and European Cold Winters During the Little Ice Age 1400-1850 |
title_full_unstemmed |
On the Relation Between Arctic Sea Ice and European Cold Winters During the Little Ice Age 1400-1850 |
title_sort |
on the relation between arctic sea ice and european cold winters during the little ice age 1400-1850 |
publisher |
Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-223656 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(19.617,19.617,67.050,67.050) ENVELOPE(22.267,22.267,70.233,70.233) |
geographic |
Arctic Barents Sea Kalla Kara Sea Lilla |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea Kalla Kara Sea Lilla |
genre |
Arctic Arktis Arktis* Barents hav Barents Sea Climate change Global warming Kara Sea Karahavet North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arktis Arktis* Barents hav Barents Sea Climate change Global warming Kara Sea Karahavet North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_relation |
Examensarbete vid Institutionen för geovetenskaper, 1650-6553 286 http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-223656 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
_version_ |
1766325322001678336 |