Environments conductive to tropical transitions in the North Atlantic: Anthropogenic climate change influence study

• Published in: Atmospheric Research
• Main Authors: Montoro Mendoza, Ana, Calvo Sancho, Carlos, González Alemán, Juan Jesús, Díaz-Fernández, Javier, Bolgiani, Pedro, Sastre, Mariano, Moreno Chamarro, Eduardo, Martín, María Luisa
• Other Authors: Barcelona Supercomputing Center
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier 2024
• Subjects: Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia; Climate science; Climatology > Computer programs; Tropical cyclone; Tropical transition; Environment tropicalization; Anthropogenic climate change; North Atlantic Oscillation Surface; Western Europe; Simulació per ordinador; Margarita; Salas; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/2117/413830; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107609

Tropical cyclones can have different precursors, but most of them affecting Europe have a tropical transition origin and develop in autumn. This research focuses on analyzing changes on favorable environments for tropical transition development in the North Atlantic (NATL) basin for this season under the Anthropogenic Climate Change (ACC) effect. Comparisons between the climatology of some relevant variables related to tropical cyclogenesis have been computed for different periods, considering the ACC effect. For this purpose, the SSP5–8.5 scenario from an adapted version of the EC-Earth3 climatic model has been used. The combination of the obtained results is indicative of a NATL environment tropicalization in response to ACC, weightier for the end of the XXI century. Therefore, the NATL environment will be more prone to tropical transition development in the future, which is of particular concern since tropical cyclones are notorious for their lethality and economic impact worldwide. This work was supported by the Spanish research project PID2019-105306RB-I00/AEI/ 10.13039/501100011033 (IBERCANES) and the ECMWF Special Projects SPESMART and SPESVALE. This work is supported by the Interdisciplinary Mathematics Institute of the Complutense University of Madrid. C. Calvo-Sancho acknowledges the grant awarded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation-FPI program (PRE2020-092343). J. Díaz-Fernández acknowledges the grant awarded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation-Margarita Salas contract. The Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) is gratefully acknowledged for providing the EC-Earth3-BSC model. Peer Reviewed Postprint (published version)