Uncertainties, complexities and possible forecasting of Volcán de Colima energy emissions (Mexico, years 2013–2015) based on a fractal reconstruction theorem
The effusive–explosive energy emission process in a volcano is a dynamic and complex physical phenomenon. The importance of quantifying this complexity in terms of the physical and mathematical mechanisms that govern these emissions should be a requirement for deciding to apply a possible forecastin...
Published in: | Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2023
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/2117/399129 https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-571-2023 |
id |
ftupcatalunyair:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/399129 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftupcatalunyair:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/399129 2024-09-09T19:47:30+00:00 Uncertainties, complexities and possible forecasting of Volcán de Colima energy emissions (Mexico, years 2013–2015) based on a fractal reconstruction theorem Monterrubio Velasco, Marisol Lana Pons, Francisco Javier Arámbula Mendoza, Raúl 2023-12-08 13 p. application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2117/399129 https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-571-2023 eng eng https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/30/571/2023/ Barcelona Supercomputing Center info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101093038/EU/Center of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earth/ChEESE-2P Monterrubio, M.; Lana, F.J.; Arámbula-Mendoza, R. Uncertainties, complexities and possible forecasting of Volcán de Colima energy emissions (Mexico, years 2013–2015) based on a fractal reconstruction theorem. "Nonlinear processes in geophysics", 8 Desembre 2023, vol. 30, núm. 4, p. 571-583. 1607-7946 http://hdl.handle.net/2117/399129 doi:10.5194/npg-30-571-2023 Attribution 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Open Access Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geologia::Riscos geològics Volcanic activity prediction Activitat volcànica -- Previsió Article 2023 ftupcatalunyair https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-571-2023 2024-08-02T04:37:59Z The effusive–explosive energy emission process in a volcano is a dynamic and complex physical phenomenon. The importance of quantifying this complexity in terms of the physical and mathematical mechanisms that govern these emissions should be a requirement for deciding to apply a possible forecasting strategy with a sufficient degree of certainty. The complexity of this process is determined in this research by means of the reconstruction theorem and statistical procedures applied to the effusive–explosive volcanic energy emissions corresponding to the activity in the Volcán de Colima (western segment of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt) along the years 2013–2015. The analysis is focused on measuring the degree of persistence or randomness of the series, the degree of predictability of energy emissions, and the quantification of the degree of complexity and “memory loss” of the physical mechanism throughout an episode of volcanic emissions. The results indicate that the analysed time series depict a high degree of persistence and low memory loss, making the mentioned effusive–explosive volcanic emission structure a candidate for successfully applying a forecasting strategy. This research has been supported by the European High-Performance Computing Joint Undertaking (JU) as well as Spain, Italy, Iceland, Germany, Norway, France, Finland and Croatia under grant agreement no.101093038, (ChEESE-CoE). Peer Reviewed Postprint (published version) Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, BarcelonaTech: UPCommons - Global access to UPC knowledge Norway Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 30 4 571 583 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, BarcelonaTech: UPCommons - Global access to UPC knowledge |
op_collection_id |
ftupcatalunyair |
language |
English |
topic |
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geologia::Riscos geològics Volcanic activity prediction Activitat volcànica -- Previsió |
spellingShingle |
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geologia::Riscos geològics Volcanic activity prediction Activitat volcànica -- Previsió Monterrubio Velasco, Marisol Lana Pons, Francisco Javier Arámbula Mendoza, Raúl Uncertainties, complexities and possible forecasting of Volcán de Colima energy emissions (Mexico, years 2013–2015) based on a fractal reconstruction theorem |
topic_facet |
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geologia::Riscos geològics Volcanic activity prediction Activitat volcànica -- Previsió |
description |
The effusive–explosive energy emission process in a volcano is a dynamic and complex physical phenomenon. The importance of quantifying this complexity in terms of the physical and mathematical mechanisms that govern these emissions should be a requirement for deciding to apply a possible forecasting strategy with a sufficient degree of certainty. The complexity of this process is determined in this research by means of the reconstruction theorem and statistical procedures applied to the effusive–explosive volcanic energy emissions corresponding to the activity in the Volcán de Colima (western segment of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt) along the years 2013–2015. The analysis is focused on measuring the degree of persistence or randomness of the series, the degree of predictability of energy emissions, and the quantification of the degree of complexity and “memory loss” of the physical mechanism throughout an episode of volcanic emissions. The results indicate that the analysed time series depict a high degree of persistence and low memory loss, making the mentioned effusive–explosive volcanic emission structure a candidate for successfully applying a forecasting strategy. This research has been supported by the European High-Performance Computing Joint Undertaking (JU) as well as Spain, Italy, Iceland, Germany, Norway, France, Finland and Croatia under grant agreement no.101093038, (ChEESE-CoE). Peer Reviewed Postprint (published version) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Monterrubio Velasco, Marisol Lana Pons, Francisco Javier Arámbula Mendoza, Raúl |
author_facet |
Monterrubio Velasco, Marisol Lana Pons, Francisco Javier Arámbula Mendoza, Raúl |
author_sort |
Monterrubio Velasco, Marisol |
title |
Uncertainties, complexities and possible forecasting of Volcán de Colima energy emissions (Mexico, years 2013–2015) based on a fractal reconstruction theorem |
title_short |
Uncertainties, complexities and possible forecasting of Volcán de Colima energy emissions (Mexico, years 2013–2015) based on a fractal reconstruction theorem |
title_full |
Uncertainties, complexities and possible forecasting of Volcán de Colima energy emissions (Mexico, years 2013–2015) based on a fractal reconstruction theorem |
title_fullStr |
Uncertainties, complexities and possible forecasting of Volcán de Colima energy emissions (Mexico, years 2013–2015) based on a fractal reconstruction theorem |
title_full_unstemmed |
Uncertainties, complexities and possible forecasting of Volcán de Colima energy emissions (Mexico, years 2013–2015) based on a fractal reconstruction theorem |
title_sort |
uncertainties, complexities and possible forecasting of volcán de colima energy emissions (mexico, years 2013–2015) based on a fractal reconstruction theorem |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2117/399129 https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-571-2023 |
geographic |
Norway |
geographic_facet |
Norway |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_relation |
https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/30/571/2023/ Barcelona Supercomputing Center info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101093038/EU/Center of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earth/ChEESE-2P Monterrubio, M.; Lana, F.J.; Arámbula-Mendoza, R. Uncertainties, complexities and possible forecasting of Volcán de Colima energy emissions (Mexico, years 2013–2015) based on a fractal reconstruction theorem. "Nonlinear processes in geophysics", 8 Desembre 2023, vol. 30, núm. 4, p. 571-583. 1607-7946 http://hdl.handle.net/2117/399129 doi:10.5194/npg-30-571-2023 |
op_rights |
Attribution 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Open Access |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-571-2023 |
container_title |
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
container_volume |
30 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
571 |
op_container_end_page |
583 |
_version_ |
1809916943829827584 |