Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction
Atlantic multidecadal variability is a coherent mode of natural climate variability occurring in the North Atlantic Ocean, with strong impacts on human societies and ecosystems worldwide. However, its periodicity and drivers are widely debated due to the short temporal extent of instrumental observa...
Published in: | Nature Communications |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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Nature Research
2022
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/2117/374497 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3 |
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ftupcatalunyair:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/374497 |
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Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, BarcelonaTech: UPCommons - Global access to UPC knowledge |
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English |
topic |
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia Climate variations North Atlantic oscillation Paleoclimate Palaeoclimate Climate change Simulació per ordinador |
spellingShingle |
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia Climate variations North Atlantic oscillation Paleoclimate Palaeoclimate Climate change Simulació per ordinador Michel, Simon L. L. Swingedouw, Didier Ortega Montilla, Pablo Gastineau, Guillaume Mignot, Juliette McCarthy, Gerard Khodri, Myriam Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction |
topic_facet |
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia Climate variations North Atlantic oscillation Paleoclimate Palaeoclimate Climate change Simulació per ordinador |
description |
Atlantic multidecadal variability is a coherent mode of natural climate variability occurring in the North Atlantic Ocean, with strong impacts on human societies and ecosystems worldwide. However, its periodicity and drivers are widely debated due to the short temporal extent of instrumental observations and competing effects of both internal and external climate factors acting on North Atlantic surface temperature variability. Here, we use a paleoclimate database and an advanced statistical framework to generate, evaluate, and compare 312 reconstructions of the Atlantic multidecadal variability over the past millennium, based on different indices and regression methods. From this process, the best reconstruction is obtained with the random forest method, and its robustness is checked using climate model outputs and independent oceanic paleoclimate data. This reconstruction shows that memory in variations of Atlantic multidecadal variability have strongly increased recently—a potential early warning signal for the approach of a North Atlantic tipping point. This study benefited from the IPSL Prodiguer-Ciclad and Camelot supercomputing facilities, supported by CNRS, UPMC Labex L-IPSL. This work was also sponsored by NWO Exact and Natural Sciences for the use of SurfSARA supercomputing facilities (Amsterdam) under project 2020.022. Authors were also funded by EU‐H2020 TiPES (Grant no. 820970, S.M., contribution no. 164), Blue Action (Grant Agreement no. 727852, D.S., G.G, G.M., and J.M.), EUCP (Grant Agreement no 776613, D.S. and J.M.), ROADMAP (Grant Agreement no. 116020, J.M., G.M., and G.G.) ARCHANGE (ANR‐18‐MPGA‐0001, J.M. and G.G.) research programmes. Peer Reviewed Postprint (published version) |
author2 |
Barcelona Supercomputing Center |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Michel, Simon L. L. Swingedouw, Didier Ortega Montilla, Pablo Gastineau, Guillaume Mignot, Juliette McCarthy, Gerard Khodri, Myriam |
author_facet |
Michel, Simon L. L. Swingedouw, Didier Ortega Montilla, Pablo Gastineau, Guillaume Mignot, Juliette McCarthy, Gerard Khodri, Myriam |
author_sort |
Michel, Simon L. L. |
title |
Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction |
title_short |
Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction |
title_full |
Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction |
title_fullStr |
Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction |
title_full_unstemmed |
Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction |
title_sort |
early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial atlantic multidecadal variability reconstruction |
publisher |
Nature Research |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2117/374497 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3 |
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ENVELOPE(163.617,163.617,-72.183,-72.183) |
geographic |
Camelot |
geographic_facet |
Camelot |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-32704-3 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/776613/EU/European Climate Prediction system/EUCP The whole data generated and treated in this study have been deposited on a Zenodo repository: https://zenodo.org/record/4896670#.YLjdOS2w3dc. The source and treated data to compute figures in this study are provided in the Source Data file. The generated data in this study are provided in the Data file. Simulation outputs for the LME experiments can be accessed from the NCAR Climate Data gateway website: https://www.earthsystemgrid.org/. The CRU TS4 datasets can be accessed from the CRU data download webpage: https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/#current. The HadISST data can be accessed from the Met Office Hadley Center website: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/. For the historical experiments of CMIP5 and CMIP6 model outputs, data can be accessed from the ESGF website: https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/esgf-llnl/. Source data are provided with this paper. Michel, S.L.L. [et al.]. Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction. "Nature Communications", Setembre 2022, vol. 13, 5176. 2041-1723 http://hdl.handle.net/2117/374497 doi:10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3 |
op_rights |
Attribution 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Open Access |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1766121363260571648 |
spelling |
ftupcatalunyair:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/374497 2023-05-15T17:28:36+02:00 Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction Michel, Simon L. L. Swingedouw, Didier Ortega Montilla, Pablo Gastineau, Guillaume Mignot, Juliette McCarthy, Gerard Khodri, Myriam Barcelona Supercomputing Center 2022-09 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2117/374497 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3 eng eng Nature Research https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-32704-3 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/776613/EU/European Climate Prediction system/EUCP The whole data generated and treated in this study have been deposited on a Zenodo repository: https://zenodo.org/record/4896670#.YLjdOS2w3dc. The source and treated data to compute figures in this study are provided in the Source Data file. The generated data in this study are provided in the Data file. Simulation outputs for the LME experiments can be accessed from the NCAR Climate Data gateway website: https://www.earthsystemgrid.org/. The CRU TS4 datasets can be accessed from the CRU data download webpage: https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/#current. The HadISST data can be accessed from the Met Office Hadley Center website: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/. For the historical experiments of CMIP5 and CMIP6 model outputs, data can be accessed from the ESGF website: https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/esgf-llnl/. Source data are provided with this paper. Michel, S.L.L. [et al.]. Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction. "Nature Communications", Setembre 2022, vol. 13, 5176. 2041-1723 http://hdl.handle.net/2117/374497 doi:10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3 Attribution 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Open Access CC-BY Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia Climate variations North Atlantic oscillation Paleoclimate Palaeoclimate Climate change Simulació per ordinador Article 2022 ftupcatalunyair https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3 2022-10-25T23:04:17Z Atlantic multidecadal variability is a coherent mode of natural climate variability occurring in the North Atlantic Ocean, with strong impacts on human societies and ecosystems worldwide. However, its periodicity and drivers are widely debated due to the short temporal extent of instrumental observations and competing effects of both internal and external climate factors acting on North Atlantic surface temperature variability. Here, we use a paleoclimate database and an advanced statistical framework to generate, evaluate, and compare 312 reconstructions of the Atlantic multidecadal variability over the past millennium, based on different indices and regression methods. From this process, the best reconstruction is obtained with the random forest method, and its robustness is checked using climate model outputs and independent oceanic paleoclimate data. This reconstruction shows that memory in variations of Atlantic multidecadal variability have strongly increased recently—a potential early warning signal for the approach of a North Atlantic tipping point. This study benefited from the IPSL Prodiguer-Ciclad and Camelot supercomputing facilities, supported by CNRS, UPMC Labex L-IPSL. This work was also sponsored by NWO Exact and Natural Sciences for the use of SurfSARA supercomputing facilities (Amsterdam) under project 2020.022. Authors were also funded by EU‐H2020 TiPES (Grant no. 820970, S.M., contribution no. 164), Blue Action (Grant Agreement no. 727852, D.S., G.G, G.M., and J.M.), EUCP (Grant Agreement no 776613, D.S. and J.M.), ROADMAP (Grant Agreement no. 116020, J.M., G.M., and G.G.) ARCHANGE (ANR‐18‐MPGA‐0001, J.M. and G.G.) research programmes. Peer Reviewed Postprint (published version) Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, BarcelonaTech: UPCommons - Global access to UPC knowledge Camelot ENVELOPE(163.617,163.617,-72.183,-72.183) Nature Communications 13 1 |