Representation and annual to decadal predictability of Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in the CMIP6 Version of the EC-Earth Coupled Climate Model
Weather regimes are large-scale atmospheric circulation states that frequently occur in the climate system with persistence and recurrence, and are associated with the occurrence of specific local weather conditions. This study evaluates the representation of the four Euro-Atlantic weather regimes i...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
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ftupcatalunyair:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/371029 2024-09-15T18:22:33+00:00 Representation and annual to decadal predictability of Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in the CMIP6 Version of the EC-Earth Coupled Climate Model Delgado Torres, Carlos Verfaillie, Deborah Mohino, Elsa Donat, Markus Barcelona Supercomputing Center 2022-07-15 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2117/371029 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036673 eng eng Wiley https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/downloadSupplement?doi=10.1029%2F2022JD036673&file=2022JD036673-sup-0001-Supporting+Information+SI-S01.pdf https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022JD036673 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/776613/EU/European Climate Prediction system/EUCP Delgado Torres, C. [et al.]. Representation and annual to decadal predictability of Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in the CMIP6 Version of the EC-Earth Coupled Climate Model. "Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres", 15 Juliol 2022, vol. 127, núm. 14, e2022JD03667. 2169-897X 2169-8996 http://hdl.handle.net/2117/371029 doi:10.1029/2022JD036673 Open Access Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia North Atlantic oscillation Decadal predictability Euro-Atlantic weather regimes Atmospheric circulation Climate model Simulació per ordinador Article 2022 ftupcatalunyair https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036673 2024-07-25T11:13:39Z Weather regimes are large-scale atmospheric circulation states that frequently occur in the climate system with persistence and recurrence, and are associated with the occurrence of specific local weather conditions. This study evaluates the representation of the four Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in uninitialized historical forcing simulations and initialized decadal predictions performed with the EC-Earth3 coupled climate model. The four weather regimes are the positive and negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+ and NAO−, respectively), Blocking, and Atlantic Ridge in winter; and the NAO−, Blocking, Atlantic Ridge, and Atlantic Low in summer. We also analyze the impact that the model initialization toward the observed state of the climate system has on the ability to predict the variability of the weather regimes' seasonal frequency of occurrence. We find that the EC-Earth3 model correctly reproduces the spatial patterns and climatological occurrence frequencies of the four weather regimes. By contrast, the skill in predicting the inter-annual to decadal variations of the weather regimes' seasonal frequencies is generally low, and the initialization does not significantly improve such skill. The observed teleconnections between the weather regimes and the North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are generally not reproduced by the model, which could be a reason for the low skill in predicting the temporal variations of the weather regime frequencies. This research has received support by the AXA Research Fund, the CLINSA project (CGL2017-85791-R), and the EUCP project (Horizon 2020 Grant 776613). CDT acknowledges financial support from the Spanish Ministry for Science and Innovation (FPI PRE2019-08864 financed by MCIN/ AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and by FSE invierte en tu futuro). EH was supported by the Spanish Project PRE4CAST (grant CGL2017-86415-R). MGD has also beensupported by the Spanish Ministry for the Economy, Industry and Competitiveness (grant RYC-2017-22964). Peer Reviewed ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, BarcelonaTech: UPCommons - Global access to UPC knowledge Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 127 14 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, BarcelonaTech: UPCommons - Global access to UPC knowledge |
op_collection_id |
ftupcatalunyair |
language |
English |
topic |
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia North Atlantic oscillation Decadal predictability Euro-Atlantic weather regimes Atmospheric circulation Climate model Simulació per ordinador |
spellingShingle |
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia North Atlantic oscillation Decadal predictability Euro-Atlantic weather regimes Atmospheric circulation Climate model Simulació per ordinador Delgado Torres, Carlos Verfaillie, Deborah Mohino, Elsa Donat, Markus Representation and annual to decadal predictability of Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in the CMIP6 Version of the EC-Earth Coupled Climate Model |
topic_facet |
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia North Atlantic oscillation Decadal predictability Euro-Atlantic weather regimes Atmospheric circulation Climate model Simulació per ordinador |
description |
Weather regimes are large-scale atmospheric circulation states that frequently occur in the climate system with persistence and recurrence, and are associated with the occurrence of specific local weather conditions. This study evaluates the representation of the four Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in uninitialized historical forcing simulations and initialized decadal predictions performed with the EC-Earth3 coupled climate model. The four weather regimes are the positive and negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+ and NAO−, respectively), Blocking, and Atlantic Ridge in winter; and the NAO−, Blocking, Atlantic Ridge, and Atlantic Low in summer. We also analyze the impact that the model initialization toward the observed state of the climate system has on the ability to predict the variability of the weather regimes' seasonal frequency of occurrence. We find that the EC-Earth3 model correctly reproduces the spatial patterns and climatological occurrence frequencies of the four weather regimes. By contrast, the skill in predicting the inter-annual to decadal variations of the weather regimes' seasonal frequencies is generally low, and the initialization does not significantly improve such skill. The observed teleconnections between the weather regimes and the North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are generally not reproduced by the model, which could be a reason for the low skill in predicting the temporal variations of the weather regime frequencies. This research has received support by the AXA Research Fund, the CLINSA project (CGL2017-85791-R), and the EUCP project (Horizon 2020 Grant 776613). CDT acknowledges financial support from the Spanish Ministry for Science and Innovation (FPI PRE2019-08864 financed by MCIN/ AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and by FSE invierte en tu futuro). EH was supported by the Spanish Project PRE4CAST (grant CGL2017-86415-R). MGD has also beensupported by the Spanish Ministry for the Economy, Industry and Competitiveness (grant RYC-2017-22964). Peer Reviewed ... |
author2 |
Barcelona Supercomputing Center |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Delgado Torres, Carlos Verfaillie, Deborah Mohino, Elsa Donat, Markus |
author_facet |
Delgado Torres, Carlos Verfaillie, Deborah Mohino, Elsa Donat, Markus |
author_sort |
Delgado Torres, Carlos |
title |
Representation and annual to decadal predictability of Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in the CMIP6 Version of the EC-Earth Coupled Climate Model |
title_short |
Representation and annual to decadal predictability of Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in the CMIP6 Version of the EC-Earth Coupled Climate Model |
title_full |
Representation and annual to decadal predictability of Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in the CMIP6 Version of the EC-Earth Coupled Climate Model |
title_fullStr |
Representation and annual to decadal predictability of Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in the CMIP6 Version of the EC-Earth Coupled Climate Model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Representation and annual to decadal predictability of Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in the CMIP6 Version of the EC-Earth Coupled Climate Model |
title_sort |
representation and annual to decadal predictability of euro-atlantic weather regimes in the cmip6 version of the ec-earth coupled climate model |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2117/371029 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036673 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/downloadSupplement?doi=10.1029%2F2022JD036673&file=2022JD036673-sup-0001-Supporting+Information+SI-S01.pdf https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022JD036673 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/776613/EU/European Climate Prediction system/EUCP Delgado Torres, C. [et al.]. Representation and annual to decadal predictability of Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in the CMIP6 Version of the EC-Earth Coupled Climate Model. "Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres", 15 Juliol 2022, vol. 127, núm. 14, e2022JD03667. 2169-897X 2169-8996 http://hdl.handle.net/2117/371029 doi:10.1029/2022JD036673 |
op_rights |
Open Access |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036673 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
container_volume |
127 |
container_issue |
14 |
_version_ |
1810462413659570176 |