Teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models
The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to increased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the rel...
Published in: | Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/2117/350224 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048 |
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ftupcatalunyair:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/350224 2024-09-15T18:23:13+00:00 Teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models Anstey, James A. Simpson, Isla R. Richter, Jadwiga H. Naoe, Hiroaki Taguchi, Masakazu Bellprat, Omar Barcelona Supercomputing Center 2021 25 p. application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2117/350224 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048 eng eng Wiley https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/qj.4048 Anstey, J.A. [et al.]. Teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models. "Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society", 2021, 1477-870X 0035-9009 http://hdl.handle.net/2117/350224 doi:10.1002/qj.4048 Attribution 3.0 Spain Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Open Access Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia Stratospheric circulation Teleconnections (Climatology) North Atlantic oscillation Atmospheric circulation--Mathematical models Polar vortex Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Seasonal forecasting Stratosphere Stratosphere–troposphere coupling Teleconnection Estratosfera Article 2021 ftupcatalunyair https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048 2024-07-25T11:09:29Z The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to increased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter, the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. The models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific-sector subtropical jet. We acknowledge the UK's Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) for hosting the QBOi data archive. This work was supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement no. 1852977. Portions of this study were supported by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Biological & Environmental Research (BER) via National Science Foundation IA 1844590. NB was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Programme funded by BEIS and Defra. SO and LG were supported by the National Centre ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, BarcelonaTech: UPCommons - Global access to UPC knowledge Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, BarcelonaTech: UPCommons - Global access to UPC knowledge |
op_collection_id |
ftupcatalunyair |
language |
English |
topic |
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia Stratospheric circulation Teleconnections (Climatology) North Atlantic oscillation Atmospheric circulation--Mathematical models Polar vortex Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Seasonal forecasting Stratosphere Stratosphere–troposphere coupling Teleconnection Estratosfera |
spellingShingle |
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia Stratospheric circulation Teleconnections (Climatology) North Atlantic oscillation Atmospheric circulation--Mathematical models Polar vortex Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Seasonal forecasting Stratosphere Stratosphere–troposphere coupling Teleconnection Estratosfera Anstey, James A. Simpson, Isla R. Richter, Jadwiga H. Naoe, Hiroaki Taguchi, Masakazu Bellprat, Omar Teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models |
topic_facet |
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia Stratospheric circulation Teleconnections (Climatology) North Atlantic oscillation Atmospheric circulation--Mathematical models Polar vortex Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Seasonal forecasting Stratosphere Stratosphere–troposphere coupling Teleconnection Estratosfera |
description |
The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to increased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter, the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. The models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific-sector subtropical jet. We acknowledge the UK's Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) for hosting the QBOi data archive. This work was supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement no. 1852977. Portions of this study were supported by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Biological & Environmental Research (BER) via National Science Foundation IA 1844590. NB was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Programme funded by BEIS and Defra. SO and LG were supported by the National Centre ... |
author2 |
Barcelona Supercomputing Center |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Anstey, James A. Simpson, Isla R. Richter, Jadwiga H. Naoe, Hiroaki Taguchi, Masakazu Bellprat, Omar |
author_facet |
Anstey, James A. Simpson, Isla R. Richter, Jadwiga H. Naoe, Hiroaki Taguchi, Masakazu Bellprat, Omar |
author_sort |
Anstey, James A. |
title |
Teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models |
title_short |
Teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models |
title_full |
Teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models |
title_fullStr |
Teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models |
title_sort |
teleconnections of the quasi-biennial oscillation in a multi-model ensemble of qbo-resolving models |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2117/350224 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/qj.4048 Anstey, J.A. [et al.]. Teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models. "Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society", 2021, 1477-870X 0035-9009 http://hdl.handle.net/2117/350224 doi:10.1002/qj.4048 |
op_rights |
Attribution 3.0 Spain Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Open Access |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048 |
container_title |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
_version_ |
1810463392975028224 |