Modulation of the occurrence of heatwaves over the Euro-Mediterranean region by the intensity of the Atlantic multidecadal variability
The influence of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and its amplitude on the Euro-Mediterranean summer climate is studied in two climate models, namely CNRM-CM5 and EC-Earth3P. Large ensembles of idealized experiments have been conducted in which North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are...
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ftupcatalunyair:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/340277 2024-09-15T18:22:33+00:00 Modulation of the occurrence of heatwaves over the Euro-Mediterranean region by the intensity of the Atlantic multidecadal variability Qasmi, Saïd Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia Ruprich-Robert, Yohan Boé, Julien Cassou, Christophe Barcelona Supercomputing Center 2021-02 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2117/340277 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0982.1 eng eng American Meteorological Society (AMS) https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/aop/jcliD190982/jcliD190982.xml info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/641727/EU/PRocess-based climate sIMulation: AdVances in high resolution modelling and European climate Risk Assessment/PRIMAVERA info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/800154/EU/Impacts of the North Atlantic Decadal variability on European Climate: mechanisms and predictability/INADEC Qasmi, S. [et al.]. Modulation of the occurrence of heatwaves over the Euro-Mediterranean region by the intensity of the Atlantic multidecadal variability. "Journal Of Climate", Febrer 2021, vol. 34, núm. 3, p. 1099-1114. 0894-8755 http://hdl.handle.net/2117/340277 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0982.1 Open Access Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic Climatology North Atlantic oscillation Climatic changes Heat waves (Meteorology) Europe North Atlantic Ocean Extreme events Climate variability Multidecadal variability Simulació per ordinador Climatologia Article 2021 ftupcatalunyair https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0982.1 2024-07-25T11:14:47Z The influence of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and its amplitude on the Euro-Mediterranean summer climate is studied in two climate models, namely CNRM-CM5 and EC-Earth3P. Large ensembles of idealized experiments have been conducted in which North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are relaxed toward different amplitudes of the observed AMV anomalies. In agreement with observations, during a positive phase of the AMV both models simulate an increase (decrease) in temperature of 0.2°–0.8°C and a decrease (increase) in precipitation over the Mediterranean basin of 0.1–0.2 mm day−1 (northern half of Europe) compared to a negative phase. Heatwave durations over the Mediterranean land regions are 40% (up to 85% over the eastern regions) longer for a moderate amplitude of the AMV. Lower and higher amplitudes lead to longer durations of ~30% and ~100%, respectively. A comparison with observed heatwaves indicates that the AMV can considerably modulate the current anthropogenically forced response on heatwaves durations depending on the area and on the AMV amplitude. The related anticyclonic anomalies over the Mediterranean basin are associated with drier soils and a reduction of cloud cover, which concomitantly induce a decrease (increase) of the latent (sensible) heat flux, and an enhancement of the downward radiative fluxes over lands. It is found that both tropical and extratropical forcings from the AMV are needed to trigger mechanisms, which modulate the atmospheric circulation over the Euro-Atlantic region. The amplitude of the local climate response over the Mediterranean basin evolves linearly with the amplitude of the AMV. However, the strength of this relationship differs between the models, and depends on their intrinsic biases. This work was supported by a grant from Electricité de France (EDF), by the French National Research Agency (ANR) in the framework of the MORDICUS project (Grant AgreementANR-13-SENV-731 0002), and by theEuropean Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme in ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, BarcelonaTech: UPCommons - Global access to UPC knowledge Journal of Climate 34 3 1099 1114 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, BarcelonaTech: UPCommons - Global access to UPC knowledge |
op_collection_id |
ftupcatalunyair |
language |
English |
topic |
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic Climatology North Atlantic oscillation Climatic changes Heat waves (Meteorology) Europe North Atlantic Ocean Extreme events Climate variability Multidecadal variability Simulació per ordinador Climatologia |
spellingShingle |
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic Climatology North Atlantic oscillation Climatic changes Heat waves (Meteorology) Europe North Atlantic Ocean Extreme events Climate variability Multidecadal variability Simulació per ordinador Climatologia Qasmi, Saïd Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia Ruprich-Robert, Yohan Boé, Julien Cassou, Christophe Modulation of the occurrence of heatwaves over the Euro-Mediterranean region by the intensity of the Atlantic multidecadal variability |
topic_facet |
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic Climatology North Atlantic oscillation Climatic changes Heat waves (Meteorology) Europe North Atlantic Ocean Extreme events Climate variability Multidecadal variability Simulació per ordinador Climatologia |
description |
The influence of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and its amplitude on the Euro-Mediterranean summer climate is studied in two climate models, namely CNRM-CM5 and EC-Earth3P. Large ensembles of idealized experiments have been conducted in which North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are relaxed toward different amplitudes of the observed AMV anomalies. In agreement with observations, during a positive phase of the AMV both models simulate an increase (decrease) in temperature of 0.2°–0.8°C and a decrease (increase) in precipitation over the Mediterranean basin of 0.1–0.2 mm day−1 (northern half of Europe) compared to a negative phase. Heatwave durations over the Mediterranean land regions are 40% (up to 85% over the eastern regions) longer for a moderate amplitude of the AMV. Lower and higher amplitudes lead to longer durations of ~30% and ~100%, respectively. A comparison with observed heatwaves indicates that the AMV can considerably modulate the current anthropogenically forced response on heatwaves durations depending on the area and on the AMV amplitude. The related anticyclonic anomalies over the Mediterranean basin are associated with drier soils and a reduction of cloud cover, which concomitantly induce a decrease (increase) of the latent (sensible) heat flux, and an enhancement of the downward radiative fluxes over lands. It is found that both tropical and extratropical forcings from the AMV are needed to trigger mechanisms, which modulate the atmospheric circulation over the Euro-Atlantic region. The amplitude of the local climate response over the Mediterranean basin evolves linearly with the amplitude of the AMV. However, the strength of this relationship differs between the models, and depends on their intrinsic biases. This work was supported by a grant from Electricité de France (EDF), by the French National Research Agency (ANR) in the framework of the MORDICUS project (Grant AgreementANR-13-SENV-731 0002), and by theEuropean Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme in ... |
author2 |
Barcelona Supercomputing Center |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Qasmi, Saïd Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia Ruprich-Robert, Yohan Boé, Julien Cassou, Christophe |
author_facet |
Qasmi, Saïd Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia Ruprich-Robert, Yohan Boé, Julien Cassou, Christophe |
author_sort |
Qasmi, Saïd |
title |
Modulation of the occurrence of heatwaves over the Euro-Mediterranean region by the intensity of the Atlantic multidecadal variability |
title_short |
Modulation of the occurrence of heatwaves over the Euro-Mediterranean region by the intensity of the Atlantic multidecadal variability |
title_full |
Modulation of the occurrence of heatwaves over the Euro-Mediterranean region by the intensity of the Atlantic multidecadal variability |
title_fullStr |
Modulation of the occurrence of heatwaves over the Euro-Mediterranean region by the intensity of the Atlantic multidecadal variability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modulation of the occurrence of heatwaves over the Euro-Mediterranean region by the intensity of the Atlantic multidecadal variability |
title_sort |
modulation of the occurrence of heatwaves over the euro-mediterranean region by the intensity of the atlantic multidecadal variability |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society (AMS) |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2117/340277 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0982.1 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/aop/jcliD190982/jcliD190982.xml info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/641727/EU/PRocess-based climate sIMulation: AdVances in high resolution modelling and European climate Risk Assessment/PRIMAVERA info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/800154/EU/Impacts of the North Atlantic Decadal variability on European Climate: mechanisms and predictability/INADEC Qasmi, S. [et al.]. Modulation of the occurrence of heatwaves over the Euro-Mediterranean region by the intensity of the Atlantic multidecadal variability. "Journal Of Climate", Febrer 2021, vol. 34, núm. 3, p. 1099-1114. 0894-8755 http://hdl.handle.net/2117/340277 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0982.1 |
op_rights |
Open Access |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0982.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
34 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
1099 |
op_container_end_page |
1114 |
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1810462413483409408 |