Link between autumnal Arctic Sea ice and Northern Hemisphere winter forecast skill

• Published in: Geophysical Research Letters
• Main Authors: Acosta Navarro, Juan Camilo, Ortega, Pablo, Batté, Lauriane, Smith, Doug, Bretonnière, Pierre-Antoine, Guemas, Virginie, Massonnet, François, Sicardi, Valentina, Torralba, Veronica, Tourigny, Etienne, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco
• Other Authors: Barcelona Supercomputing Center
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2020
• Subjects: Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Prospectiva; sistèmica i modelització; Forecasting; Precipitation (Meteorology); Climatology; Sea ice > Arctic Ocean; Atmospheric circulation; Winter climate predictions; Artic Sea ice; Eurasian climate; Atmospheric teleconnections; Large ensembles; Climatologia; Previsió; Circulació atmosfèrica; Temperatura; Precipitacions (Meteorologia); MODELS; Arctic; Arctic Ocean; Kara Sea; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/2117/185324; https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086753

Dynamical forecast systems have low to moderate skill in continental winter predictions in the extratropics. Here we assess the multimodel predictive skill over Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and midlatitudes using four state‐of‐the‐art forecast systems. Our main goal was to quantify the impact...