Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate
A set of ensemble integrations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, with historical forcing plus RCP4.5 scenario, are used to explore if state-of-the-art climate models are able to simulate previously reported linkages between sea-ice concentration (SIC) anomalies over the eastern...
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/2117/111363 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3 |
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ftupcatalunyair:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/111363 2024-09-15T17:51:47+00:00 Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate García-Serrano, Javier Frankignoul, C. King, M.P. Arribas, A. Gao, Y. Guemas, Virginie Matei, D. Msadek, R. Park, W. Sanchez-Gomenez, E. Barcelona Supercomputing Center 2017-10 23 p. application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2117/111363 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3 eng eng Springer https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/655339/EU/Dynamics and Predictability of the ENSO teleconnection to the Tropical North Atlantic/DPETNA info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/308299/EU/North Atlantic Climate: Predictability of the climate in the North Atlantic%2FEuropean sector related to North Atlantic%2FArctic sea surface temperature and sea ice variability and change/NACLIM García-Serrano, J. [et al.]. Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate. "Climate Dynamics", Octubre 2017, vol. 49, núm. 7-8, p. 2407-2429. 0930-7575 http://hdl.handle.net/2117/111363 doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3 Open Access Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Energies Climate science Sea ice Atmospheric circulation Arctic sea ice variability NAO/AO pattern Atmospheric teleconnection Clima--Observacions Circulació atmosfèrica Article 2017 ftupcatalunyair https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3 2024-07-25T10:53:00Z A set of ensemble integrations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, with historical forcing plus RCP4.5 scenario, are used to explore if state-of-the-art climate models are able to simulate previously reported linkages between sea-ice concentration (SIC) anomalies over the eastern Arctic, namely in the Greenland–Barents–Kara Seas, and lagged atmospheric circulation that projects on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation (AO). The study is focused on variability around the long-term trends, so that all anomalies are detrended prior to analysis; the period of study is 1979–2013. The model linkages are detected by applying maximum covariance analysis. As also found in observational data, all the models considered here show a statistically significant link with sea-ice reduction over the eastern Arctic followed by a negative NAO/AO-like pattern. If the simulated relationship is found at a lag of one month, the results suggest that a stratospheric pathway could be at play as the driving mechanism; in observations this is preferentially shown for SIC in November. The interference of a wave-like anomaly over Eurasia, accompanying SIC changes, with the climatological wave pattern appears to be key in setting the mediating role of the stratosphere. On the other hand, if the simulated relationship is found at a lag of two months, the results suggest that tropospheric dynamics are dominant, presumably due to transient eddy feedback; in observations this is preferentially shown for SIC in December. The results shown here and previous evidence from atmosphere-only experiments emphasize that there could be a detectable influence of eastern Arctic SIC variability on mid-latitude atmospheric circulation anomalies. Even if the mechanisms are robust among the models, the timing of the simulated linkages strongly depends on the model and does not generally mimic the observational ones. This implies that the atmospheric sensitivity to sea-ice changes largely depends on the mean-flow and ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Greenland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, BarcelonaTech: UPCommons - Global access to UPC knowledge Climate Dynamics 49 7-8 2407 2429 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, BarcelonaTech: UPCommons - Global access to UPC knowledge |
op_collection_id |
ftupcatalunyair |
language |
English |
topic |
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Energies Climate science Sea ice Atmospheric circulation Arctic sea ice variability NAO/AO pattern Atmospheric teleconnection Clima--Observacions Circulació atmosfèrica |
spellingShingle |
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Energies Climate science Sea ice Atmospheric circulation Arctic sea ice variability NAO/AO pattern Atmospheric teleconnection Clima--Observacions Circulació atmosfèrica García-Serrano, Javier Frankignoul, C. King, M.P. Arribas, A. Gao, Y. Guemas, Virginie Matei, D. Msadek, R. Park, W. Sanchez-Gomenez, E. Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate |
topic_facet |
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Energies Climate science Sea ice Atmospheric circulation Arctic sea ice variability NAO/AO pattern Atmospheric teleconnection Clima--Observacions Circulació atmosfèrica |
description |
A set of ensemble integrations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, with historical forcing plus RCP4.5 scenario, are used to explore if state-of-the-art climate models are able to simulate previously reported linkages between sea-ice concentration (SIC) anomalies over the eastern Arctic, namely in the Greenland–Barents–Kara Seas, and lagged atmospheric circulation that projects on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation (AO). The study is focused on variability around the long-term trends, so that all anomalies are detrended prior to analysis; the period of study is 1979–2013. The model linkages are detected by applying maximum covariance analysis. As also found in observational data, all the models considered here show a statistically significant link with sea-ice reduction over the eastern Arctic followed by a negative NAO/AO-like pattern. If the simulated relationship is found at a lag of one month, the results suggest that a stratospheric pathway could be at play as the driving mechanism; in observations this is preferentially shown for SIC in November. The interference of a wave-like anomaly over Eurasia, accompanying SIC changes, with the climatological wave pattern appears to be key in setting the mediating role of the stratosphere. On the other hand, if the simulated relationship is found at a lag of two months, the results suggest that tropospheric dynamics are dominant, presumably due to transient eddy feedback; in observations this is preferentially shown for SIC in December. The results shown here and previous evidence from atmosphere-only experiments emphasize that there could be a detectable influence of eastern Arctic SIC variability on mid-latitude atmospheric circulation anomalies. Even if the mechanisms are robust among the models, the timing of the simulated linkages strongly depends on the model and does not generally mimic the observational ones. This implies that the atmospheric sensitivity to sea-ice changes largely depends on the mean-flow and ... |
author2 |
Barcelona Supercomputing Center |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
García-Serrano, Javier Frankignoul, C. King, M.P. Arribas, A. Gao, Y. Guemas, Virginie Matei, D. Msadek, R. Park, W. Sanchez-Gomenez, E. |
author_facet |
García-Serrano, Javier Frankignoul, C. King, M.P. Arribas, A. Gao, Y. Guemas, Virginie Matei, D. Msadek, R. Park, W. Sanchez-Gomenez, E. |
author_sort |
García-Serrano, Javier |
title |
Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate |
title_short |
Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate |
title_full |
Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate |
title_fullStr |
Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate |
title_sort |
multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern arctic sea-ice variability and the euro-atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate |
publisher |
Springer |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2117/111363 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3 |
genre |
Arctic Greenland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Greenland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/655339/EU/Dynamics and Predictability of the ENSO teleconnection to the Tropical North Atlantic/DPETNA info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/308299/EU/North Atlantic Climate: Predictability of the climate in the North Atlantic%2FEuropean sector related to North Atlantic%2FArctic sea surface temperature and sea ice variability and change/NACLIM García-Serrano, J. [et al.]. Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate. "Climate Dynamics", Octubre 2017, vol. 49, núm. 7-8, p. 2407-2429. 0930-7575 http://hdl.handle.net/2117/111363 doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3 |
op_rights |
Open Access |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3 |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
49 |
container_issue |
7-8 |
container_start_page |
2407 |
op_container_end_page |
2429 |
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1810293791882477568 |