Multivariate hybrid modelling of future wave-storms at the northwestern Black Sea
The characterization of future wave-storms and their relationship to large-scale climate can provide useful information for environmental or urban planning at coastal areas. A hybrid methodology (process-based and statistical) was used to characterize the extreme wave-climate at the northwestern Bla...
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ftupcatalunya:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/114868 2023-05-15T17:37:03+02:00 Multivariate hybrid modelling of future wave-storms at the northwestern Black Sea Lin Ye, Jue García León, Manuel Gracia Garcia, Vicente Ortego Martínez, María Isabel Stanica, Adrian Sánchez-Arcilla Conejo, Agustín Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament d'Enginyeria Civil i Ambiental Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. LIM/UPC - Laboratori d'Enginyeria Marítima Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. COSDA-UPC - COmpositional and Spatial Data Analysis 2018-02 28 p. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323258509_Multivariate_Hybrid_Modelling_of_Future_Wave-Storms_at_the_Northwestern_Black_Sea http://hdl.handle.net/2117/114868 https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020221 eng eng http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/10/2/221 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/CE/H2020/730030-CEASELESS info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO/1PE/CTM2013-45141-R Attribution 3.0 Spain http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/ Open Access CC-BY Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Enginyeria hidràulica marítima i sanitària::Ports i costes Climatic changes--Black Sea Region SWAN storminess climate change climate patterns Black Sea copula generalized additive model Canvis climàtics Article 2018 ftupcatalunya https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020221 2019-09-29T09:20:16Z The characterization of future wave-storms and their relationship to large-scale climate can provide useful information for environmental or urban planning at coastal areas. A hybrid methodology (process-based and statistical) was used to characterize the extreme wave-climate at the northwestern Black Sea. The Simulating WAve Nearshore spectral wave-model was employed to produce wave-climate projections, forced with wind-fields projections for two climate change scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. A non-stationary multivariate statistical model was built, considering significant wave-height and peak-wave-period at the peak of the wave-storm, as well as storm total energy and storm-duration. The climate indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic Pattern, and Scandinavian Pattern have been used as covariates to link to storminess, wave-storm threshold, and wave-storm components in the statistical model. The results show that, first, under both RCP scenarios, the mean values of significant wave-height and peak-wave-period at the peak of the wave-storm remain fairly constant over the 21st century. Second, the mean value of storm total energy is more markedly increasing in the RCP4.5 scenario than in the RCP8.5 scenario. Third, the mean value of storm-duration is increasing in the RCP4.5 scenario, as opposed to the constant trend in the RCP8.5 scenario. The variance of each wave-storm component increases when the corresponding mean value increases under both RCP scenarios. During the 21st century, the East Atlantic Pattern and changes in its pattern have a special influence on wave-storm conditions. Apart from the individual characteristics of each wave-storm component, wave-storms with both extreme energy and duration can be expected in the 21st century. The dependence between all the wave-storm components is moderate, but grows with time and, in general, the severe emission scenario of RCP8.5 presents less dependence between storm total energy and storm-duration and among wave-storm components. Peer Reviewed Postprint (published version) Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC): Theses and Dissertations Online (TDX) Water 10 2 221 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC): Theses and Dissertations Online (TDX) |
op_collection_id |
ftupcatalunya |
language |
English |
topic |
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Enginyeria hidràulica marítima i sanitària::Ports i costes Climatic changes--Black Sea Region SWAN storminess climate change climate patterns Black Sea copula generalized additive model Canvis climàtics |
spellingShingle |
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Enginyeria hidràulica marítima i sanitària::Ports i costes Climatic changes--Black Sea Region SWAN storminess climate change climate patterns Black Sea copula generalized additive model Canvis climàtics Lin Ye, Jue García León, Manuel Gracia Garcia, Vicente Ortego Martínez, María Isabel Stanica, Adrian Sánchez-Arcilla Conejo, Agustín Multivariate hybrid modelling of future wave-storms at the northwestern Black Sea |
topic_facet |
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Enginyeria hidràulica marítima i sanitària::Ports i costes Climatic changes--Black Sea Region SWAN storminess climate change climate patterns Black Sea copula generalized additive model Canvis climàtics |
description |
The characterization of future wave-storms and their relationship to large-scale climate can provide useful information for environmental or urban planning at coastal areas. A hybrid methodology (process-based and statistical) was used to characterize the extreme wave-climate at the northwestern Black Sea. The Simulating WAve Nearshore spectral wave-model was employed to produce wave-climate projections, forced with wind-fields projections for two climate change scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. A non-stationary multivariate statistical model was built, considering significant wave-height and peak-wave-period at the peak of the wave-storm, as well as storm total energy and storm-duration. The climate indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic Pattern, and Scandinavian Pattern have been used as covariates to link to storminess, wave-storm threshold, and wave-storm components in the statistical model. The results show that, first, under both RCP scenarios, the mean values of significant wave-height and peak-wave-period at the peak of the wave-storm remain fairly constant over the 21st century. Second, the mean value of storm total energy is more markedly increasing in the RCP4.5 scenario than in the RCP8.5 scenario. Third, the mean value of storm-duration is increasing in the RCP4.5 scenario, as opposed to the constant trend in the RCP8.5 scenario. The variance of each wave-storm component increases when the corresponding mean value increases under both RCP scenarios. During the 21st century, the East Atlantic Pattern and changes in its pattern have a special influence on wave-storm conditions. Apart from the individual characteristics of each wave-storm component, wave-storms with both extreme energy and duration can be expected in the 21st century. The dependence between all the wave-storm components is moderate, but grows with time and, in general, the severe emission scenario of RCP8.5 presents less dependence between storm total energy and storm-duration and among wave-storm components. Peer Reviewed Postprint (published version) |
author2 |
Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament d'Enginyeria Civil i Ambiental Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. LIM/UPC - Laboratori d'Enginyeria Marítima Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. COSDA-UPC - COmpositional and Spatial Data Analysis |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lin Ye, Jue García León, Manuel Gracia Garcia, Vicente Ortego Martínez, María Isabel Stanica, Adrian Sánchez-Arcilla Conejo, Agustín |
author_facet |
Lin Ye, Jue García León, Manuel Gracia Garcia, Vicente Ortego Martínez, María Isabel Stanica, Adrian Sánchez-Arcilla Conejo, Agustín |
author_sort |
Lin Ye, Jue |
title |
Multivariate hybrid modelling of future wave-storms at the northwestern Black Sea |
title_short |
Multivariate hybrid modelling of future wave-storms at the northwestern Black Sea |
title_full |
Multivariate hybrid modelling of future wave-storms at the northwestern Black Sea |
title_fullStr |
Multivariate hybrid modelling of future wave-storms at the northwestern Black Sea |
title_full_unstemmed |
Multivariate hybrid modelling of future wave-storms at the northwestern Black Sea |
title_sort |
multivariate hybrid modelling of future wave-storms at the northwestern black sea |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323258509_Multivariate_Hybrid_Modelling_of_Future_Wave-Storms_at_the_Northwestern_Black_Sea http://hdl.handle.net/2117/114868 https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020221 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/10/2/221 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/CE/H2020/730030-CEASELESS info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO/1PE/CTM2013-45141-R |
op_rights |
Attribution 3.0 Spain http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/ Open Access |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020221 |
container_title |
Water |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
221 |
_version_ |
1766136776996421632 |