How Frequent Are Antarctic Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in Present and Future Climate?
Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) result in smaller Antarctic ozone holes and are linked to extreme midlatitude weather on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. Therefore, it is of interest how often such events occur and whether we should expect more events in the future....
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
2021
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ftunswworks:oai:unsworks.library.unsw.edu.au:1959.4/unsworks_79028 2024-05-19T07:32:24+00:00 How Frequent Are Antarctic Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in Present and Future Climate? Jucker, M Reichler, T Waugh, DW 2021-06-16 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/unsworks_79028 https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/bitstreams/3a234dd5-ca6f-4295-be15-d26ed9bbc29f/download https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093215 unknown American Geophysical Union (AGU) http://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/unsworks_79028 https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/bitstreams/3a234dd5-ca6f-4295-be15-d26ed9bbc29f/download https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093215 open access https://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 CC-BY-NC-ND https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ free_to_read urn:ISSN:0094-8276 urn:ISSN:1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters, 48, 11 13 Climate Action journal article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 2021 ftunswworks https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093215 2024-04-24T00:33:11Z Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) result in smaller Antarctic ozone holes and are linked to extreme midlatitude weather on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. Therefore, it is of interest how often such events occur and whether we should expect more events in the future. Here, we use a pair of novel multimillennial simulations with a stratosphere-resolving coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model to show that the frequency of SSWs, such as observed 2002 and 2019, is about one in 22 years for 1990 conditions. In addition, we show that we should expect the frequency of SSWs, and that of more moderate vortex weakening events, to strongly decrease by the end of this century. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic UNSW Sydney (The University of New South Wales): UNSWorks Geophysical Research Letters 48 11 |
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Open Polar |
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UNSW Sydney (The University of New South Wales): UNSWorks |
op_collection_id |
ftunswworks |
language |
unknown |
topic |
13 Climate Action |
spellingShingle |
13 Climate Action Jucker, M Reichler, T Waugh, DW How Frequent Are Antarctic Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in Present and Future Climate? |
topic_facet |
13 Climate Action |
description |
Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) result in smaller Antarctic ozone holes and are linked to extreme midlatitude weather on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. Therefore, it is of interest how often such events occur and whether we should expect more events in the future. Here, we use a pair of novel multimillennial simulations with a stratosphere-resolving coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model to show that the frequency of SSWs, such as observed 2002 and 2019, is about one in 22 years for 1990 conditions. In addition, we show that we should expect the frequency of SSWs, and that of more moderate vortex weakening events, to strongly decrease by the end of this century. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jucker, M Reichler, T Waugh, DW |
author_facet |
Jucker, M Reichler, T Waugh, DW |
author_sort |
Jucker, M |
title |
How Frequent Are Antarctic Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in Present and Future Climate? |
title_short |
How Frequent Are Antarctic Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in Present and Future Climate? |
title_full |
How Frequent Are Antarctic Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in Present and Future Climate? |
title_fullStr |
How Frequent Are Antarctic Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in Present and Future Climate? |
title_full_unstemmed |
How Frequent Are Antarctic Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in Present and Future Climate? |
title_sort |
how frequent are antarctic sudden stratospheric warmings in present and future climate? |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/unsworks_79028 https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/bitstreams/3a234dd5-ca6f-4295-be15-d26ed9bbc29f/download https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093215 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_source |
urn:ISSN:0094-8276 urn:ISSN:1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters, 48, 11 |
op_relation |
http://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/unsworks_79028 https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/bitstreams/3a234dd5-ca6f-4295-be15-d26ed9bbc29f/download https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093215 |
op_rights |
open access https://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 CC-BY-NC-ND https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ free_to_read |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093215 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
48 |
container_issue |
11 |
_version_ |
1799470437986467840 |