A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: Sea ice data compilation and model differences
The Last Interglacial period (LIG) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, which results in strong changes in the terrestrial and marine cryosphere. Understanding the mechanisms for this response via climate modelling and comparing the models' representation of...
Published in: | Climate of the Past |
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Copernicus Publications
2021
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/unsworks_79003 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021 |
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ftunswworks:oai:unsworks.library.unsw.edu.au:1959.4/unsworks_79003 2024-05-12T07:52:23+00:00 A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: Sea ice data compilation and model differences Kageyama, M Sime, LC Sicard, M Guarino, MV De Vernal, A Stein, R Schroeder, D Malmierca-Vallet, I Abe-Ouchi, A Bitz, C Braconnot, P Brady, EC Cao, J Chamberlain, MA Feltham, D Guo, C Legrande, AN Lohmann, G Meissner, KJ Menviel, L Morozova, P Nisancioglu, KH Otto-Bliesner, BL O'Ishi, R Buarque, SR Melia, DSY Sherriff-Tadano, S Stroeve, J Shi, X Sun, B Tomas, RA Volodin, E Yeung, NKH Zhang, Q Zhang, Z Zheng, W Ziehn, T 2021-01-11 http://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/unsworks_79003 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021 unknown Copernicus Publications http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/FT180100606 http://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/unsworks_79003 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021 metadata only access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb CC-BY-NC-ND https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ urn:ISSN:1814-9324 urn:ISSN:1814-9332 Climate of the Past, 17, 1, 37-62 13 Climate Action 14 Life Below Water anzsrc-for: 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience journal article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 2021 ftunswworks https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021 2024-04-17T15:49:47Z The Last Interglacial period (LIG) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, which results in strong changes in the terrestrial and marine cryosphere. Understanding the mechanisms for this response via climate modelling and comparing the models' representation of climate reconstructions is one of the objectives set up by the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project for its contribution to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we analyse the results from 16 climate models in terms of Arctic sea ice. The multi-model mean reduction in minimum sea ice area from the pre industrial period (PI) to the LIG reaches 50% (multi-model mean LIG area is 3.20×106km2, compared to 6.46×106km2for the PI). On the other hand, there is little change for the maximum sea ice area (which is 15-16×106km2for both the PI and the LIG. To evaluate the model results we synthesise LIG sea ice data from marine cores collected in the Arctic Ocean, Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic. The reconstructions for the northern North Atlantic show year-round ice-free conditions, and most models yield results in agreement with these reconstructions. Model-data disagreement appear for the sites in the Nordic Seas close to Greenland and at the edge of the Arctic Ocean. The northernmost site with good chronology, for which a sea ice concentration larger than 75% is reconstructed even in summer, discriminates those models which simulate too little sea ice. However, the remaining models appear to simulate too much sea ice over the two sites south of the northernmost one, for which the reconstructed sea ice cover is seasonal. Hence models either underestimate or overestimate sea ice cover for the LIG, and their bias does not appear to be related to their bias for the pre-industrial period. Drivers for the inter-model differences are different phasing of the up and down short-wave anomalies over the Arctic Ocean, which are associated with differences in model albedo; possible cloud property ... Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland Nordic Seas North Atlantic Sea ice UNSW Sydney (The University of New South Wales): UNSWorks Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland Climate of the Past 17 1 37 62 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
UNSW Sydney (The University of New South Wales): UNSWorks |
op_collection_id |
ftunswworks |
language |
unknown |
topic |
13 Climate Action 14 Life Below Water anzsrc-for: 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience |
spellingShingle |
13 Climate Action 14 Life Below Water anzsrc-for: 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience Kageyama, M Sime, LC Sicard, M Guarino, MV De Vernal, A Stein, R Schroeder, D Malmierca-Vallet, I Abe-Ouchi, A Bitz, C Braconnot, P Brady, EC Cao, J Chamberlain, MA Feltham, D Guo, C Legrande, AN Lohmann, G Meissner, KJ Menviel, L Morozova, P Nisancioglu, KH Otto-Bliesner, BL O'Ishi, R Buarque, SR Melia, DSY Sherriff-Tadano, S Stroeve, J Shi, X Sun, B Tomas, RA Volodin, E Yeung, NKH Zhang, Q Zhang, Z Zheng, W Ziehn, T A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: Sea ice data compilation and model differences |
topic_facet |
13 Climate Action 14 Life Below Water anzsrc-for: 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience |
description |
The Last Interglacial period (LIG) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, which results in strong changes in the terrestrial and marine cryosphere. Understanding the mechanisms for this response via climate modelling and comparing the models' representation of climate reconstructions is one of the objectives set up by the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project for its contribution to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we analyse the results from 16 climate models in terms of Arctic sea ice. The multi-model mean reduction in minimum sea ice area from the pre industrial period (PI) to the LIG reaches 50% (multi-model mean LIG area is 3.20×106km2, compared to 6.46×106km2for the PI). On the other hand, there is little change for the maximum sea ice area (which is 15-16×106km2for both the PI and the LIG. To evaluate the model results we synthesise LIG sea ice data from marine cores collected in the Arctic Ocean, Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic. The reconstructions for the northern North Atlantic show year-round ice-free conditions, and most models yield results in agreement with these reconstructions. Model-data disagreement appear for the sites in the Nordic Seas close to Greenland and at the edge of the Arctic Ocean. The northernmost site with good chronology, for which a sea ice concentration larger than 75% is reconstructed even in summer, discriminates those models which simulate too little sea ice. However, the remaining models appear to simulate too much sea ice over the two sites south of the northernmost one, for which the reconstructed sea ice cover is seasonal. Hence models either underestimate or overestimate sea ice cover for the LIG, and their bias does not appear to be related to their bias for the pre-industrial period. Drivers for the inter-model differences are different phasing of the up and down short-wave anomalies over the Arctic Ocean, which are associated with differences in model albedo; possible cloud property ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kageyama, M Sime, LC Sicard, M Guarino, MV De Vernal, A Stein, R Schroeder, D Malmierca-Vallet, I Abe-Ouchi, A Bitz, C Braconnot, P Brady, EC Cao, J Chamberlain, MA Feltham, D Guo, C Legrande, AN Lohmann, G Meissner, KJ Menviel, L Morozova, P Nisancioglu, KH Otto-Bliesner, BL O'Ishi, R Buarque, SR Melia, DSY Sherriff-Tadano, S Stroeve, J Shi, X Sun, B Tomas, RA Volodin, E Yeung, NKH Zhang, Q Zhang, Z Zheng, W Ziehn, T |
author_facet |
Kageyama, M Sime, LC Sicard, M Guarino, MV De Vernal, A Stein, R Schroeder, D Malmierca-Vallet, I Abe-Ouchi, A Bitz, C Braconnot, P Brady, EC Cao, J Chamberlain, MA Feltham, D Guo, C Legrande, AN Lohmann, G Meissner, KJ Menviel, L Morozova, P Nisancioglu, KH Otto-Bliesner, BL O'Ishi, R Buarque, SR Melia, DSY Sherriff-Tadano, S Stroeve, J Shi, X Sun, B Tomas, RA Volodin, E Yeung, NKH Zhang, Q Zhang, Z Zheng, W Ziehn, T |
author_sort |
Kageyama, M |
title |
A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: Sea ice data compilation and model differences |
title_short |
A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: Sea ice data compilation and model differences |
title_full |
A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: Sea ice data compilation and model differences |
title_fullStr |
A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: Sea ice data compilation and model differences |
title_full_unstemmed |
A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: Sea ice data compilation and model differences |
title_sort |
multi-model cmip6-pmip4 study of arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/unsworks_79003 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland |
genre |
albedo Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland Nordic Seas North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland Nordic Seas North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_source |
urn:ISSN:1814-9324 urn:ISSN:1814-9332 Climate of the Past, 17, 1, 37-62 |
op_relation |
http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/FT180100606 http://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/unsworks_79003 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021 |
op_rights |
metadata only access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb CC-BY-NC-ND https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
37 |
op_container_end_page |
62 |
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1798834992874258432 |