Projected slow down of South Indian Ocean circulation
Using an ensemble of 28 climate models, we examine hindcasts and ‘business as usual’ future changes to large-scale South Indian Ocean dynamics. We compare model ensemble seasonal-to-annual volume transports to observations and explore drivers of past and future circulation variability and change. Of...
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ftunswworks:oai:unsworks.library.unsw.edu.au:1959.4/unsworks_70828 2024-05-19T07:30:45+00:00 Projected slow down of South Indian Ocean circulation Stellema, A Sen Gupta, A Taschetto, AS 2019-12-01 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/unsworks_70828 https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/bitstreams/5c1ca225-13b5-459c-b7a0-16e145af14b4/download https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-54092-3 unknown Springer Nature http://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/unsworks_70828 https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/bitstreams/5c1ca225-13b5-459c-b7a0-16e145af14b4/download https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-54092-3 open access https://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 CC BY https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ free_to_read urn:ISSN:2045-2322 Scientific Reports, 9, 1, 17705 14 Life Below Water journal article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 2019 ftunswworks https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-54092-3 2024-04-24T01:12:09Z Using an ensemble of 28 climate models, we examine hindcasts and ‘business as usual’ future changes to large-scale South Indian Ocean dynamics. We compare model ensemble seasonal-to-annual volume transports to observations and explore drivers of past and future circulation variability and change. Off the west coast of Australia, models consistently project a weakening of the Leeuwin Current and Undercurrent due to reduced onshore flow and downwelling. The reduced onshore flow is related to changes in the alongshore pressure gradient. While the alongshore pressure gradient change is consistent with the Indonesian Throughflow projected weakening, we found no inter-model relationship between these changes. In the south-western Indian Ocean, the models project a robust weakening of the North East and South East Madagascar Currents, Agulhas Current and transport through the Mozambique Channel. This reduced Indian Ocean western boundary flow is partly associated with a weaker Indonesian Throughflow and overturning circulation, where the latter is related to a decrease in the convergence of deep Southern Ocean waters into the Indian Ocean. In contrast to the weakening of other features, the westward flowing Agulhas Current extension south of Africa is projected to strengthen, which is consistent with an intensification of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean UNSW Sydney (The University of New South Wales): UNSWorks Scientific Reports 9 1 |
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Open Polar |
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UNSW Sydney (The University of New South Wales): UNSWorks |
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ftunswworks |
language |
unknown |
topic |
14 Life Below Water |
spellingShingle |
14 Life Below Water Stellema, A Sen Gupta, A Taschetto, AS Projected slow down of South Indian Ocean circulation |
topic_facet |
14 Life Below Water |
description |
Using an ensemble of 28 climate models, we examine hindcasts and ‘business as usual’ future changes to large-scale South Indian Ocean dynamics. We compare model ensemble seasonal-to-annual volume transports to observations and explore drivers of past and future circulation variability and change. Off the west coast of Australia, models consistently project a weakening of the Leeuwin Current and Undercurrent due to reduced onshore flow and downwelling. The reduced onshore flow is related to changes in the alongshore pressure gradient. While the alongshore pressure gradient change is consistent with the Indonesian Throughflow projected weakening, we found no inter-model relationship between these changes. In the south-western Indian Ocean, the models project a robust weakening of the North East and South East Madagascar Currents, Agulhas Current and transport through the Mozambique Channel. This reduced Indian Ocean western boundary flow is partly associated with a weaker Indonesian Throughflow and overturning circulation, where the latter is related to a decrease in the convergence of deep Southern Ocean waters into the Indian Ocean. In contrast to the weakening of other features, the westward flowing Agulhas Current extension south of Africa is projected to strengthen, which is consistent with an intensification of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Stellema, A Sen Gupta, A Taschetto, AS |
author_facet |
Stellema, A Sen Gupta, A Taschetto, AS |
author_sort |
Stellema, A |
title |
Projected slow down of South Indian Ocean circulation |
title_short |
Projected slow down of South Indian Ocean circulation |
title_full |
Projected slow down of South Indian Ocean circulation |
title_fullStr |
Projected slow down of South Indian Ocean circulation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projected slow down of South Indian Ocean circulation |
title_sort |
projected slow down of south indian ocean circulation |
publisher |
Springer Nature |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/unsworks_70828 https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/bitstreams/5c1ca225-13b5-459c-b7a0-16e145af14b4/download https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-54092-3 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean |
op_source |
urn:ISSN:2045-2322 Scientific Reports, 9, 1, 17705 |
op_relation |
http://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/unsworks_70828 https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/bitstreams/5c1ca225-13b5-459c-b7a0-16e145af14b4/download https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-54092-3 |
op_rights |
open access https://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 CC BY https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ free_to_read |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-54092-3 |
container_title |
Scientific Reports |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1799466771838664704 |