A novel method to test non-exclusive hypotheses applied to Arctic ice projections from dependent models
A major conundrum in climate science is how to account for dependence between climate models. This complicates interpretation of probabilistic projections derived from such models. Here we show that this problem can be addressed using a novel method to test multiple non-exclusive hypotheses, and to...
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ftunswworks:oai:unsworks.library.unsw.edu.au:1959.4/unsworks_66835 2024-05-19T07:34:38+00:00 A novel method to test non-exclusive hypotheses applied to Arctic ice projections from dependent models Olson, R An, SI Fan, Y Chang, W Evans, JP Lee, JY 2019-12-01 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/unsworks_66835 https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/bitstreams/56390272-3053-4cb8-8e95-b53a4882bdf1/download https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10561-x unknown Springer Nature http://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/unsworks_66835 https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/bitstreams/56390272-3053-4cb8-8e95-b53a4882bdf1/download https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10561-x open access https://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 CC BY https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ free_to_read urn:ISSN:2041-1723 Nature Communications, 10, 1, 3016 13 Climate Action journal article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 2019 ftunswworks https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10561-x 2024-05-01T00:19:08Z A major conundrum in climate science is how to account for dependence between climate models. This complicates interpretation of probabilistic projections derived from such models. Here we show that this problem can be addressed using a novel method to test multiple non-exclusive hypotheses, and to make predictions under such hypotheses. We apply the method to probabilistically estimate the level of global warming needed for a September ice-free Arctic, using an ensemble of historical and representative concentration pathway 8.5 emissions scenario climate model runs. We show that not accounting for model dependence can lead to biased projections. Incorporating more constraints on models may minimize the impact of neglecting model non-exclusivity. Most likely, September Arctic sea ice will effectively disappear at between approximately 2 and 2.5 K of global warming. Yet, limiting the warming to 1.5 K under the Paris agreement may not be sufficient to prevent the ice-free Arctic. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Global warming Sea ice UNSW Sydney (The University of New South Wales): UNSWorks Nature Communications 10 1 |
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UNSW Sydney (The University of New South Wales): UNSWorks |
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topic |
13 Climate Action |
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13 Climate Action Olson, R An, SI Fan, Y Chang, W Evans, JP Lee, JY A novel method to test non-exclusive hypotheses applied to Arctic ice projections from dependent models |
topic_facet |
13 Climate Action |
description |
A major conundrum in climate science is how to account for dependence between climate models. This complicates interpretation of probabilistic projections derived from such models. Here we show that this problem can be addressed using a novel method to test multiple non-exclusive hypotheses, and to make predictions under such hypotheses. We apply the method to probabilistically estimate the level of global warming needed for a September ice-free Arctic, using an ensemble of historical and representative concentration pathway 8.5 emissions scenario climate model runs. We show that not accounting for model dependence can lead to biased projections. Incorporating more constraints on models may minimize the impact of neglecting model non-exclusivity. Most likely, September Arctic sea ice will effectively disappear at between approximately 2 and 2.5 K of global warming. Yet, limiting the warming to 1.5 K under the Paris agreement may not be sufficient to prevent the ice-free Arctic. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Olson, R An, SI Fan, Y Chang, W Evans, JP Lee, JY |
author_facet |
Olson, R An, SI Fan, Y Chang, W Evans, JP Lee, JY |
author_sort |
Olson, R |
title |
A novel method to test non-exclusive hypotheses applied to Arctic ice projections from dependent models |
title_short |
A novel method to test non-exclusive hypotheses applied to Arctic ice projections from dependent models |
title_full |
A novel method to test non-exclusive hypotheses applied to Arctic ice projections from dependent models |
title_fullStr |
A novel method to test non-exclusive hypotheses applied to Arctic ice projections from dependent models |
title_full_unstemmed |
A novel method to test non-exclusive hypotheses applied to Arctic ice projections from dependent models |
title_sort |
novel method to test non-exclusive hypotheses applied to arctic ice projections from dependent models |
publisher |
Springer Nature |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/unsworks_66835 https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/bitstreams/56390272-3053-4cb8-8e95-b53a4882bdf1/download https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10561-x |
genre |
Arctic Global warming Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Global warming Sea ice |
op_source |
urn:ISSN:2041-1723 Nature Communications, 10, 1, 3016 |
op_relation |
http://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/unsworks_66835 https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/bitstreams/56390272-3053-4cb8-8e95-b53a4882bdf1/download https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10561-x |
op_rights |
open access https://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 CC BY https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ free_to_read |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10561-x |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1799472779447238656 |