Predictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large-scale surface warming using statistical methods

• Published in: Geophysical Research Letters
• Main Authors: Mann, ME, Steinman, BA, Miller, SK, Frankcombe, LM, England, MH, Cheung, AH
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: unknown
• Published: American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2016
• Subjects: 37 Earth Sciences; 3708 Oceanography; anzsrc-for: 37 Earth Sciences; anzsrc-for: 3708 Oceanography; Pacific; North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/unsworks_46819; https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068159

The temporary slowdown in large-scale surface warming during the early 2000s has been attributed to both external and internal sources of climate variability. Using semiempirical estimates of the internal low-frequency variability component in Northern Hemisphere, Atlantic, and Pacific surface temperatures in concert with statistical hindcast experiments, we investigate whether the slowdown and its recent recovery were predictable. We conclude that the internal variability of the North Pacific, which played a critical role in the slowdown, does not appear to have been predictable using statistical forecast methods. An additional minor contribution from the North Atlantic, by contrast, appears to exhibit some predictability. While our analyses focus on combining semiempirical estimates of internal climatic variability with statistical hindcast experiments, possible implications for initialized model predictions are also discussed.