Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes
Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979-2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensificatio...
Published in: | Nature Communications |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
Springer Nature
2016
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/unsworks_42097 https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/bitstreams/00d96303-9cb3-4d5c-afd5-f6bf3e23f9b7/download https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10409 |
id |
ftunswworks:oai:unsworks.library.unsw.edu.au:1959.4/unsworks_42097 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftunswworks:oai:unsworks.library.unsw.edu.au:1959.4/unsworks_42097 2024-05-12T07:53:09+00:00 Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes Purich, A Cai, W England, MH Cowan, T 2016-02-04 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/unsworks_42097 https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/bitstreams/00d96303-9cb3-4d5c-afd5-f6bf3e23f9b7/download https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10409 unknown Springer Nature http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/FL100100214 http://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/unsworks_42097 https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/bitstreams/00d96303-9cb3-4d5c-afd5-f6bf3e23f9b7/download https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10409 open access https://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 CC BY https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ free_to_read urn:ISSN:2041-1723 Nature Communications, 7, 1, 10409 13 Climate Action journal article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 2016 ftunswworks https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10409 2024-04-17T15:38:57Z Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979-2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice UNSW Sydney (The University of New South Wales): UNSWorks Antarctic Austral Nature Communications 7 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
UNSW Sydney (The University of New South Wales): UNSWorks |
op_collection_id |
ftunswworks |
language |
unknown |
topic |
13 Climate Action |
spellingShingle |
13 Climate Action Purich, A Cai, W England, MH Cowan, T Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes |
topic_facet |
13 Climate Action |
description |
Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979-2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Purich, A Cai, W England, MH Cowan, T |
author_facet |
Purich, A Cai, W England, MH Cowan, T |
author_sort |
Purich, A |
title |
Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes |
title_short |
Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes |
title_full |
Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes |
title_fullStr |
Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes |
title_sort |
evidence for link between modelled trends in antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes |
publisher |
Springer Nature |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/unsworks_42097 https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/bitstreams/00d96303-9cb3-4d5c-afd5-f6bf3e23f9b7/download https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10409 |
geographic |
Antarctic Austral |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Austral |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice |
op_source |
urn:ISSN:2041-1723 Nature Communications, 7, 1, 10409 |
op_relation |
http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/FL100100214 http://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/unsworks_42097 https://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/bitstreams/00d96303-9cb3-4d5c-afd5-f6bf3e23f9b7/download https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10409 |
op_rights |
open access https://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 CC BY https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ free_to_read |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10409 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
7 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1798841242867466240 |