A hierarchical Bayesian model of wildfire in a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot : implications of weather variability and global circulation
The original publication is available at www.elsevier.com. In this study we combined an extensive database of observed wildfires with high-resolution meteorological data to build a novel spatially and temporally varying survival model to analyze fire regimes in the Mediterranean ecosystem in the Cap...
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ftunstellenbosch:oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/14994 2023-11-12T04:05:22+01:00 A hierarchical Bayesian model of wildfire in a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot : implications of weather variability and global circulation Wilson, Adam M. Latimer, Andrew M. Silander, John A. Gelfand, Alan E. De Klerk, Helen Margaret 2010 p. 106-112 : ill., maps application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/14994 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.09.016 en_US eng Elsevier Wilsona, A.M., Latimerb, A.M., Silander, J.A., Gelfandc, A.E. & De Klerk, H. 2010. A Hierarchical Bayesian model of wildfire in a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot: implications of weather variability and global circulation. Ecological Modelling 221 (2010), 106–112, doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.09.016 0304-3800 doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.09.016 http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/14994 Elsevier Fire regime -- South Africa -- Cape Floristic Region Fynbos -- South Africa -- Cape Floristic Region Climate change -- South Africa -- Cape Floristic Region Hierarchical Bayesian model Article 2010 ftunstellenbosch https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.09.016 2023-10-22T07:25:52Z The original publication is available at www.elsevier.com. In this study we combined an extensive database of observed wildfires with high-resolution meteorological data to build a novel spatially and temporally varying survival model to analyze fire regimes in the Mediterranean ecosystem in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa (CFR) during the period 1980-2000. The model revealed an important influence of seasonally anomalous weather on fire probability, with increased probability of fire in seasons that are warmer and drier than average. In addition to these local-scale influences, the Antarctic Ocean Oscillation (AAO) was identified as an important large scale influence or teleconnection to global circulation patterns. Fire probability increased in seasons during positive AAO phases, when the subtropical jet moves northward and low level moisture transport decreases. These results confirm that fire occurrence in the CFR is strongly affected by climatic variability at both local and global scales, and thus likely to respond sensitively to future climate change. Comparison of the modeled fire probability between two periods (1951-1975 and 1976-2000) revealed a four year decrease in an average fire return time. If, as currently forecasted, climate change in the region continues to produce higher temperatures, more frequent heat waves, and/or lower rainfall, our model thus indicates that fire frequency is likely to increase substantially. The regional implications of shorter fire return times include shifting community structure and composition, favoring species that tolerate more frequent fires. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Ocean Stellenbosch University: SUNScholar Research Repository Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Ocean Ecological Modelling 221 1 106 112 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Stellenbosch University: SUNScholar Research Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunstellenbosch |
language |
English |
topic |
Fire regime -- South Africa -- Cape Floristic Region Fynbos -- South Africa -- Cape Floristic Region Climate change -- South Africa -- Cape Floristic Region Hierarchical Bayesian model |
spellingShingle |
Fire regime -- South Africa -- Cape Floristic Region Fynbos -- South Africa -- Cape Floristic Region Climate change -- South Africa -- Cape Floristic Region Hierarchical Bayesian model Wilson, Adam M. Latimer, Andrew M. Silander, John A. Gelfand, Alan E. De Klerk, Helen Margaret A hierarchical Bayesian model of wildfire in a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot : implications of weather variability and global circulation |
topic_facet |
Fire regime -- South Africa -- Cape Floristic Region Fynbos -- South Africa -- Cape Floristic Region Climate change -- South Africa -- Cape Floristic Region Hierarchical Bayesian model |
description |
The original publication is available at www.elsevier.com. In this study we combined an extensive database of observed wildfires with high-resolution meteorological data to build a novel spatially and temporally varying survival model to analyze fire regimes in the Mediterranean ecosystem in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa (CFR) during the period 1980-2000. The model revealed an important influence of seasonally anomalous weather on fire probability, with increased probability of fire in seasons that are warmer and drier than average. In addition to these local-scale influences, the Antarctic Ocean Oscillation (AAO) was identified as an important large scale influence or teleconnection to global circulation patterns. Fire probability increased in seasons during positive AAO phases, when the subtropical jet moves northward and low level moisture transport decreases. These results confirm that fire occurrence in the CFR is strongly affected by climatic variability at both local and global scales, and thus likely to respond sensitively to future climate change. Comparison of the modeled fire probability between two periods (1951-1975 and 1976-2000) revealed a four year decrease in an average fire return time. If, as currently forecasted, climate change in the region continues to produce higher temperatures, more frequent heat waves, and/or lower rainfall, our model thus indicates that fire frequency is likely to increase substantially. The regional implications of shorter fire return times include shifting community structure and composition, favoring species that tolerate more frequent fires. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wilson, Adam M. Latimer, Andrew M. Silander, John A. Gelfand, Alan E. De Klerk, Helen Margaret |
author_facet |
Wilson, Adam M. Latimer, Andrew M. Silander, John A. Gelfand, Alan E. De Klerk, Helen Margaret |
author_sort |
Wilson, Adam M. |
title |
A hierarchical Bayesian model of wildfire in a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot : implications of weather variability and global circulation |
title_short |
A hierarchical Bayesian model of wildfire in a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot : implications of weather variability and global circulation |
title_full |
A hierarchical Bayesian model of wildfire in a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot : implications of weather variability and global circulation |
title_fullStr |
A hierarchical Bayesian model of wildfire in a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot : implications of weather variability and global circulation |
title_full_unstemmed |
A hierarchical Bayesian model of wildfire in a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot : implications of weather variability and global circulation |
title_sort |
hierarchical bayesian model of wildfire in a mediterranean biodiversity hotspot : implications of weather variability and global circulation |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/14994 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.09.016 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Ocean |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Ocean |
op_relation |
Wilsona, A.M., Latimerb, A.M., Silander, J.A., Gelfandc, A.E. & De Klerk, H. 2010. A Hierarchical Bayesian model of wildfire in a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot: implications of weather variability and global circulation. Ecological Modelling 221 (2010), 106–112, doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.09.016 0304-3800 doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.09.016 http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/14994 |
op_rights |
Elsevier |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.09.016 |
container_title |
Ecological Modelling |
container_volume |
221 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
106 |
op_container_end_page |
112 |
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1782341968575070208 |