Persistence thresholds for PDV infection in harbour seal metapopulations
1. This paper explores the concept of the critical community size for persistence of infection in wildlife populations. We use as a case study the 1988 epidemic of phocine distemper virus in the North Sea population of harbour seals, Phoca vitulina. 2. We summarize the available data on this epidemi...
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1998
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Online Access: | https://risweb.st-andrews.ac.uk/portal/en/researchoutput/persistence-thresholds-for-pdv-infection-in-harbour-seal-metapopulations(c3d0f3cd-dc28-44f2-af88-49b459190ef3).html http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0031973166&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
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ftunstandrewcris:oai:risweb.st-andrews.ac.uk:publications/c3d0f3cd-dc28-44f2-af88-49b459190ef3 2023-05-15T16:33:35+02:00 Persistence thresholds for PDV infection in harbour seal metapopulations Swinton, JJ Harwood, John Grenfell, BT Gilligan, CA 1998-01 https://risweb.st-andrews.ac.uk/portal/en/researchoutput/persistence-thresholds-for-pdv-infection-in-harbour-seal-metapopulations(c3d0f3cd-dc28-44f2-af88-49b459190ef3).html http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0031973166&partnerID=8YFLogxK eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Swinton , JJ , Harwood , J , Grenfell , BT & Gilligan , CA 1998 , ' Persistence thresholds for PDV infection in harbour seal metapopulations ' , Journal of Animal Ecology , vol. 66 , pp. 54-68 . critical metapopulation distribution mathematical modelling morbillivirus North Sea harbour seals persistence COMMON SEALS MORAY FIRTH HALICHOERUS-GRYPUS KATTEGAT-SKAGERRAK EPIDEMIC MODELS MARINE MAMMALS GRAY SEALS HARP SEALS POPULATION SCOTLAND article 1998 ftunstandrewcris 2021-12-26T14:10:34Z 1. This paper explores the concept of the critical community size for persistence of infection in wildlife populations. We use as a case study the 1988 epidemic of phocine distemper virus in the North Sea population of harbour seals, Phoca vitulina. 2. We summarize the available data on this epidemic and use it to parameterize a stochastic compartmental model for an infection spreading through a spatial array of patches coupled by nearest-neighbour mixing, with replacement of susceptibles occurring as a discrete annual event. 3. A combination of analytical and simulation techniques is used to show that the high levels of transmission between different seal subpopulations, combined with the small annual birth cohort, act to make persistence of infection impossible in this harbour seal population at realistic population levels. The well known mechanisms by which metapopulation structures may act to promote persistence can be seen to have an effect only at weaker levels of spatial coupling, and higher levels of host recruitment, than those empirically observed. Article in Journal/Newspaper harbour seal Phoca vitulina University of St Andrews: Research Portal Kattegat ENVELOPE(9.692,9.692,63.563,63.563) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of St Andrews: Research Portal |
op_collection_id |
ftunstandrewcris |
language |
English |
topic |
critical metapopulation distribution mathematical modelling morbillivirus North Sea harbour seals persistence COMMON SEALS MORAY FIRTH HALICHOERUS-GRYPUS KATTEGAT-SKAGERRAK EPIDEMIC MODELS MARINE MAMMALS GRAY SEALS HARP SEALS POPULATION SCOTLAND |
spellingShingle |
critical metapopulation distribution mathematical modelling morbillivirus North Sea harbour seals persistence COMMON SEALS MORAY FIRTH HALICHOERUS-GRYPUS KATTEGAT-SKAGERRAK EPIDEMIC MODELS MARINE MAMMALS GRAY SEALS HARP SEALS POPULATION SCOTLAND Swinton, JJ Harwood, John Grenfell, BT Gilligan, CA Persistence thresholds for PDV infection in harbour seal metapopulations |
topic_facet |
critical metapopulation distribution mathematical modelling morbillivirus North Sea harbour seals persistence COMMON SEALS MORAY FIRTH HALICHOERUS-GRYPUS KATTEGAT-SKAGERRAK EPIDEMIC MODELS MARINE MAMMALS GRAY SEALS HARP SEALS POPULATION SCOTLAND |
description |
1. This paper explores the concept of the critical community size for persistence of infection in wildlife populations. We use as a case study the 1988 epidemic of phocine distemper virus in the North Sea population of harbour seals, Phoca vitulina. 2. We summarize the available data on this epidemic and use it to parameterize a stochastic compartmental model for an infection spreading through a spatial array of patches coupled by nearest-neighbour mixing, with replacement of susceptibles occurring as a discrete annual event. 3. A combination of analytical and simulation techniques is used to show that the high levels of transmission between different seal subpopulations, combined with the small annual birth cohort, act to make persistence of infection impossible in this harbour seal population at realistic population levels. The well known mechanisms by which metapopulation structures may act to promote persistence can be seen to have an effect only at weaker levels of spatial coupling, and higher levels of host recruitment, than those empirically observed. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Swinton, JJ Harwood, John Grenfell, BT Gilligan, CA |
author_facet |
Swinton, JJ Harwood, John Grenfell, BT Gilligan, CA |
author_sort |
Swinton, JJ |
title |
Persistence thresholds for PDV infection in harbour seal metapopulations |
title_short |
Persistence thresholds for PDV infection in harbour seal metapopulations |
title_full |
Persistence thresholds for PDV infection in harbour seal metapopulations |
title_fullStr |
Persistence thresholds for PDV infection in harbour seal metapopulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Persistence thresholds for PDV infection in harbour seal metapopulations |
title_sort |
persistence thresholds for pdv infection in harbour seal metapopulations |
publishDate |
1998 |
url |
https://risweb.st-andrews.ac.uk/portal/en/researchoutput/persistence-thresholds-for-pdv-infection-in-harbour-seal-metapopulations(c3d0f3cd-dc28-44f2-af88-49b459190ef3).html http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0031973166&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(9.692,9.692,63.563,63.563) |
geographic |
Kattegat |
geographic_facet |
Kattegat |
genre |
harbour seal Phoca vitulina |
genre_facet |
harbour seal Phoca vitulina |
op_source |
Swinton , JJ , Harwood , J , Grenfell , BT & Gilligan , CA 1998 , ' Persistence thresholds for PDV infection in harbour seal metapopulations ' , Journal of Animal Ecology , vol. 66 , pp. 54-68 . |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
_version_ |
1766023272835579904 |