European temperature records of the past five centuries based on documentary/instrumental information compared to climate simulations
Two European temperature reconstructions for the past half-millennium, January-to-April air temperature for Stockholm (Sweden) and seasonal temperature for a Central European region, both derived from the analysis of documentary sources and long instrumental records, are compared with the output of...
Published in: | Climatic Change |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2010
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://risweb.st-andrews.ac.uk/portal/en/researchoutput/european-temperature-records-of-the-past-five-centuries-based-on-documentaryinstrumental-information-compared-to-climate-simulations(5345f198-563a-4967-80a7-3a4d67f3c3fb).html https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9824-7 |
id |
ftunstandrewcris:oai:risweb.st-andrews.ac.uk:publications/5345f198-563a-4967-80a7-3a4d67f3c3fb |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftunstandrewcris:oai:risweb.st-andrews.ac.uk:publications/5345f198-563a-4967-80a7-3a4d67f3c3fb 2023-05-15T17:36:08+02:00 European temperature records of the past five centuries based on documentary/instrumental information compared to climate simulations Zorita, Eduardo Moberg, Anders Leijonhufvud, Lotta Wilson, Rob Brazdil, Rudolf Dobrovolny, Petr Luterbacher, Juerg Boehm, Reinhard Pfister, Christian Riemann, Dirk Glaser, Ruediger Soderberg, Johan Gonzalez-Rouco, Fidel 2010-07 https://risweb.st-andrews.ac.uk/portal/en/researchoutput/european-temperature-records-of-the-past-five-centuries-based-on-documentaryinstrumental-information-compared-to-climate-simulations(5345f198-563a-4967-80a7-3a4d67f3c3fb).html https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9824-7 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Zorita , E , Moberg , A , Leijonhufvud , L , Wilson , R , Brazdil , R , Dobrovolny , P , Luterbacher , J , Boehm , R , Pfister , C , Riemann , D , Glaser , R , Soderberg , J & Gonzalez-Rouco , F 2010 , ' European temperature records of the past five centuries based on documentary/instrumental information compared to climate simulations ' , Climatic Change , vol. 101 , no. 1-2 , pp. 143-168 . https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9824-7 NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION CENTRAL ENGLAND TEMPERATURES 1000-YR CONTROL SIMULATION INTERNAL VARIABILITY LAST-MILLENNIUM HISTORICAL CLIMATOLOGY DOCUMENTARY DATA MAUNDER MINIMUM ALPINE REGION ECHO-G article 2010 ftunstandrewcris https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9824-7 2022-10-13T15:25:27Z Two European temperature reconstructions for the past half-millennium, January-to-April air temperature for Stockholm (Sweden) and seasonal temperature for a Central European region, both derived from the analysis of documentary sources and long instrumental records, are compared with the output of climate simulations with the model ECHO-G. The analysis is complemented by comparisons with the long (early)-instrumental record of Central England Temperature (CET). Both approaches to study past climates (simulations and reconstructions) are burdened with uncertainties. The main objective of this comparative analysis is to identify robust features and weaknesses in each method which may help to improve models and reconstruction methods. The results indicate a general agreement between simulations obtained with temporally changing external forcings and the reconstructed Stockholm and CET records for the multi-centennial temperature trend over the recent centuries, which is not reproduced in a control simulation. This trend is likely due to the long-term change in external forcing. Additionally, the Stockholm reconstruction and the CET record also show a clear multi-decadal warm episode peaking around AD 1730, which is absent in the simulations. Neither the reconstruction uncertainties nor the model internal climate variability can easily explain this difference. Regarding the interannual variability, the Stockholm series displays, in some periods, higher amplitudes than the simulations but these differences are within the statistical uncertainty and further decrease if output from a regional model driven by the global model is used. The long-term trend of the CET series agrees less well with the simulations. The reconstructed temperature displays, for all seasons, a smaller difference between the present climate and past centuries than is seen in the simulations. Possible reasons for these differences may be related to a limitation of the traditional 'indexing' technique for converting documentary evidence to ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation University of St Andrews: Research Portal Climatic Change 101 1-2 143 168 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of St Andrews: Research Portal |
op_collection_id |
ftunstandrewcris |
language |
English |
topic |
NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION CENTRAL ENGLAND TEMPERATURES 1000-YR CONTROL SIMULATION INTERNAL VARIABILITY LAST-MILLENNIUM HISTORICAL CLIMATOLOGY DOCUMENTARY DATA MAUNDER MINIMUM ALPINE REGION ECHO-G |
spellingShingle |
NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION CENTRAL ENGLAND TEMPERATURES 1000-YR CONTROL SIMULATION INTERNAL VARIABILITY LAST-MILLENNIUM HISTORICAL CLIMATOLOGY DOCUMENTARY DATA MAUNDER MINIMUM ALPINE REGION ECHO-G Zorita, Eduardo Moberg, Anders Leijonhufvud, Lotta Wilson, Rob Brazdil, Rudolf Dobrovolny, Petr Luterbacher, Juerg Boehm, Reinhard Pfister, Christian Riemann, Dirk Glaser, Ruediger Soderberg, Johan Gonzalez-Rouco, Fidel European temperature records of the past five centuries based on documentary/instrumental information compared to climate simulations |
topic_facet |
NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION CENTRAL ENGLAND TEMPERATURES 1000-YR CONTROL SIMULATION INTERNAL VARIABILITY LAST-MILLENNIUM HISTORICAL CLIMATOLOGY DOCUMENTARY DATA MAUNDER MINIMUM ALPINE REGION ECHO-G |
description |
Two European temperature reconstructions for the past half-millennium, January-to-April air temperature for Stockholm (Sweden) and seasonal temperature for a Central European region, both derived from the analysis of documentary sources and long instrumental records, are compared with the output of climate simulations with the model ECHO-G. The analysis is complemented by comparisons with the long (early)-instrumental record of Central England Temperature (CET). Both approaches to study past climates (simulations and reconstructions) are burdened with uncertainties. The main objective of this comparative analysis is to identify robust features and weaknesses in each method which may help to improve models and reconstruction methods. The results indicate a general agreement between simulations obtained with temporally changing external forcings and the reconstructed Stockholm and CET records for the multi-centennial temperature trend over the recent centuries, which is not reproduced in a control simulation. This trend is likely due to the long-term change in external forcing. Additionally, the Stockholm reconstruction and the CET record also show a clear multi-decadal warm episode peaking around AD 1730, which is absent in the simulations. Neither the reconstruction uncertainties nor the model internal climate variability can easily explain this difference. Regarding the interannual variability, the Stockholm series displays, in some periods, higher amplitudes than the simulations but these differences are within the statistical uncertainty and further decrease if output from a regional model driven by the global model is used. The long-term trend of the CET series agrees less well with the simulations. The reconstructed temperature displays, for all seasons, a smaller difference between the present climate and past centuries than is seen in the simulations. Possible reasons for these differences may be related to a limitation of the traditional 'indexing' technique for converting documentary evidence to ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Zorita, Eduardo Moberg, Anders Leijonhufvud, Lotta Wilson, Rob Brazdil, Rudolf Dobrovolny, Petr Luterbacher, Juerg Boehm, Reinhard Pfister, Christian Riemann, Dirk Glaser, Ruediger Soderberg, Johan Gonzalez-Rouco, Fidel |
author_facet |
Zorita, Eduardo Moberg, Anders Leijonhufvud, Lotta Wilson, Rob Brazdil, Rudolf Dobrovolny, Petr Luterbacher, Juerg Boehm, Reinhard Pfister, Christian Riemann, Dirk Glaser, Ruediger Soderberg, Johan Gonzalez-Rouco, Fidel |
author_sort |
Zorita, Eduardo |
title |
European temperature records of the past five centuries based on documentary/instrumental information compared to climate simulations |
title_short |
European temperature records of the past five centuries based on documentary/instrumental information compared to climate simulations |
title_full |
European temperature records of the past five centuries based on documentary/instrumental information compared to climate simulations |
title_fullStr |
European temperature records of the past five centuries based on documentary/instrumental information compared to climate simulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
European temperature records of the past five centuries based on documentary/instrumental information compared to climate simulations |
title_sort |
european temperature records of the past five centuries based on documentary/instrumental information compared to climate simulations |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
https://risweb.st-andrews.ac.uk/portal/en/researchoutput/european-temperature-records-of-the-past-five-centuries-based-on-documentaryinstrumental-information-compared-to-climate-simulations(5345f198-563a-4967-80a7-3a4d67f3c3fb).html https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9824-7 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Zorita , E , Moberg , A , Leijonhufvud , L , Wilson , R , Brazdil , R , Dobrovolny , P , Luterbacher , J , Boehm , R , Pfister , C , Riemann , D , Glaser , R , Soderberg , J & Gonzalez-Rouco , F 2010 , ' European temperature records of the past five centuries based on documentary/instrumental information compared to climate simulations ' , Climatic Change , vol. 101 , no. 1-2 , pp. 143-168 . https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9824-7 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9824-7 |
container_title |
Climatic Change |
container_volume |
101 |
container_issue |
1-2 |
container_start_page |
143 |
op_container_end_page |
168 |
_version_ |
1766135526084050944 |