Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise
The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted 1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international proje...
Published in: | Nature |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Language: | English |
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2021
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Online Access: | https://risweb.st-andrews.ac.uk/portal/en/researchoutput/projected-land-ice-contributions-to-twentyfirstcentury-sea-level-rise(42223401-b180-4592-83e1-0e2703ef6cd1).html https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y https://research-repository.st-andrews.ac.uk/bitstream/10023/24263/1/Edwards_2021_Nature_Projectedlandice_AAM.pdf |
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The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted 1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models 2,3,4,5,6,7,8 , but primarily used previous-generation scenarios 9 and climate models 10 , and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios 11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Edwards, Tamsin L. Nowicki, Sophie Marzeion, Ben Hock, Regine Goelzer, Heiko Seroussi, Hélène Jourdain, Nicolas C. Slater, Donald A. Turner, Fiona E. Smith, Christopher J. McKenna, Christine M. Simon, Erika Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Gregory, Jonathan M. Larour, Eric Lipscomb, William H. Payne, Antony J. Shepherd, Andrew Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Anderson, Brian Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bliss, Andrew Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Champollion, Nicolas Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Fujita, Koji Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huss, Matthias Huybrechts, Philippe Immerzeel, Walter Kleiner, Thomas Kraaijenbrink, Philip Le clec’h, Sébastien Lee, Victoria |
spellingShingle |
Edwards, Tamsin L. Nowicki, Sophie Marzeion, Ben Hock, Regine Goelzer, Heiko Seroussi, Hélène Jourdain, Nicolas C. Slater, Donald A. Turner, Fiona E. Smith, Christopher J. McKenna, Christine M. Simon, Erika Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Gregory, Jonathan M. Larour, Eric Lipscomb, William H. Payne, Antony J. Shepherd, Andrew Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Anderson, Brian Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bliss, Andrew Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Champollion, Nicolas Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Fujita, Koji Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huss, Matthias Huybrechts, Philippe Immerzeel, Walter Kleiner, Thomas Kraaijenbrink, Philip Le clec’h, Sébastien Lee, Victoria Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise |
author_facet |
Edwards, Tamsin L. Nowicki, Sophie Marzeion, Ben Hock, Regine Goelzer, Heiko Seroussi, Hélène Jourdain, Nicolas C. Slater, Donald A. Turner, Fiona E. Smith, Christopher J. McKenna, Christine M. Simon, Erika Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Gregory, Jonathan M. Larour, Eric Lipscomb, William H. Payne, Antony J. Shepherd, Andrew Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Anderson, Brian Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bliss, Andrew Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Champollion, Nicolas Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Fujita, Koji Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huss, Matthias Huybrechts, Philippe Immerzeel, Walter Kleiner, Thomas Kraaijenbrink, Philip Le clec’h, Sébastien Lee, Victoria |
author_sort |
Edwards, Tamsin L. |
title |
Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise |
title_short |
Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise |
title_full |
Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise |
title_fullStr |
Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise |
title_sort |
projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://risweb.st-andrews.ac.uk/portal/en/researchoutput/projected-land-ice-contributions-to-twentyfirstcentury-sea-level-rise(42223401-b180-4592-83e1-0e2703ef6cd1).html https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y https://research-repository.st-andrews.ac.uk/bitstream/10023/24263/1/Edwards_2021_Nature_Projectedlandice_AAM.pdf |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Edwards , T L , Nowicki , S , Marzeion , B , Hock , R , Goelzer , H , Seroussi , H , Jourdain , N C , Slater , D A , Turner , F E , Smith , C J , McKenna , C M , Simon , E , Abe-Ouchi , A , Gregory , J M , Larour , E , Lipscomb , W H , Payne , A J , Shepherd , A , Agosta , C , Alexander , P , Albrecht , T , Anderson , B , Asay-Davis , X , Aschwanden , A , Barthel , A , Bliss , A , Calov , R , Chambers , C , Champollion , N , Choi , Y , Cullather , R , Cuzzone , J , Dumas , C , Felikson , D , Fettweis , X , Fujita , K , Galton-Fenzi , B K , Gladstone , R , Golledge , N R , Greve , R , Hattermann , T , Hoffman , M J , Humbert , A , Huss , M , Huybrechts , P , Immerzeel , W , Kleiner , T , Kraaijenbrink , P , Le clec’h , S , Lee , V , Leguy , G R , Little , C M , Lowry , D P , Malles , J-H , Martin , D F , Maussion , F , Morlighem , M , O’Neill , J F , Nias , I , Pattyn , F , Pelle , T , Price , S F , Quiquet , A , Radić , V , Reese , R , Rounce , D R , Rückamp , M , Sakai , A , Shafer , C , Schlegel , N-J , Shannon , S , Smith , R S , Straneo , F , Sun , S , Tarasov , L , Trusel , L D , Van Breedam , J , van de Wal , R , van den Broeke , M , Winkelmann , R , Zekollari , H , Zhao , C , Zhang , T & Zwinger , T 2021 , ' Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise ' , Nature , vol. 593 , no. 7857 , pp. 74-82 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y |
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Nature |
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7857 |
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ftunstandrewcris:oai:risweb.st-andrews.ac.uk:publications/42223401-b180-4592-83e1-0e2703ef6cd1 2023-05-15T13:53:11+02:00 Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise Edwards, Tamsin L. Nowicki, Sophie Marzeion, Ben Hock, Regine Goelzer, Heiko Seroussi, Hélène Jourdain, Nicolas C. Slater, Donald A. Turner, Fiona E. Smith, Christopher J. McKenna, Christine M. Simon, Erika Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Gregory, Jonathan M. Larour, Eric Lipscomb, William H. Payne, Antony J. Shepherd, Andrew Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Anderson, Brian Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bliss, Andrew Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Champollion, Nicolas Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Fujita, Koji Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huss, Matthias Huybrechts, Philippe Immerzeel, Walter Kleiner, Thomas Kraaijenbrink, Philip Le clec’h, Sébastien Lee, Victoria 2021-05-06 application/pdf https://risweb.st-andrews.ac.uk/portal/en/researchoutput/projected-land-ice-contributions-to-twentyfirstcentury-sea-level-rise(42223401-b180-4592-83e1-0e2703ef6cd1).html https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y https://research-repository.st-andrews.ac.uk/bitstream/10023/24263/1/Edwards_2021_Nature_Projectedlandice_AAM.pdf eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Edwards , T L , Nowicki , S , Marzeion , B , Hock , R , Goelzer , H , Seroussi , H , Jourdain , N C , Slater , D A , Turner , F E , Smith , C J , McKenna , C M , Simon , E , Abe-Ouchi , A , Gregory , J M , Larour , E , Lipscomb , W H , Payne , A J , Shepherd , A , Agosta , C , Alexander , P , Albrecht , T , Anderson , B , Asay-Davis , X , Aschwanden , A , Barthel , A , Bliss , A , Calov , R , Chambers , C , Champollion , N , Choi , Y , Cullather , R , Cuzzone , J , Dumas , C , Felikson , D , Fettweis , X , Fujita , K , Galton-Fenzi , B K , Gladstone , R , Golledge , N R , Greve , R , Hattermann , T , Hoffman , M J , Humbert , A , Huss , M , Huybrechts , P , Immerzeel , W , Kleiner , T , Kraaijenbrink , P , Le clec’h , S , Lee , V , Leguy , G R , Little , C M , Lowry , D P , Malles , J-H , Martin , D F , Maussion , F , Morlighem , M , O’Neill , J F , Nias , I , Pattyn , F , Pelle , T , Price , S F , Quiquet , A , Radić , V , Reese , R , Rounce , D R , Rückamp , M , Sakai , A , Shafer , C , Schlegel , N-J , Shannon , S , Smith , R S , Straneo , F , Sun , S , Tarasov , L , Trusel , L D , Van Breedam , J , van de Wal , R , van den Broeke , M , Winkelmann , R , Zekollari , H , Zhao , C , Zhang , T & Zwinger , T 2021 , ' Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise ' , Nature , vol. 593 , no. 7857 , pp. 74-82 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y article 2021 ftunstandrewcris https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y 2021-12-26T14:38:05Z The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted 1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models 2,3,4,5,6,7,8 , but primarily used previous-generation scenarios 9 and climate models 10 , and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios 11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet University of St Andrews: Research Portal Antarctic The Antarctic Nature 593 7857 74 82 |