The potential effects of repeated outbreaks of phocine distemper among harbour seals: a response to Harding et al.(2002)
In 2002 phocine distemper virus (PDV) reappeared in the European harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) population. This outbreak seems to have followed a similar pattern to the 1988 one which killed almost 60% of individuals in most localities. Harding et al. ( 2002) suggested that there is a relatively hig...
Published in: | Ecology Letters |
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Language: | English |
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2003
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Online Access: | https://research-portal.st-andrews.ac.uk/en/researchoutput/the-potential-effects-of-repeated-outbreaks-of-phocine-distemper-among-harbour-seals-a-response-to-harding-et-al2002(d49d309e-b30a-4006-b711-317b98d9039e).html https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1461-0248.2003.00510.x http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0141818220&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
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ftunstandrewcris:oai:research-portal.st-andrews.ac.uk:publications/d49d309e-b30a-4006-b711-317b98d9039e 2024-06-23T07:53:31+00:00 The potential effects of repeated outbreaks of phocine distemper among harbour seals: a response to Harding et al.(2002) Lonergan, M Harwood, J 2003-10 https://research-portal.st-andrews.ac.uk/en/researchoutput/the-potential-effects-of-repeated-outbreaks-of-phocine-distemper-among-harbour-seals-a-response-to-harding-et-al2002(d49d309e-b30a-4006-b711-317b98d9039e).html https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1461-0248.2003.00510.x http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0141818220&partnerID=8YFLogxK eng eng https://research-portal.st-andrews.ac.uk/en/researchoutput/the-potential-effects-of-repeated-outbreaks-of-phocine-distemper-among-harbour-seals-a-response-to-harding-et-al2002(d49d309e-b30a-4006-b711-317b98d9039e).html info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Lonergan , M & Harwood , J 2003 , ' The potential effects of repeated outbreaks of phocine distemper among harbour seals: a response to Harding et al.(2002) ' , Ecology Letters , vol. 6 , no. 10 , pp. 889-893 . https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1461-0248.2003.00510.x epidemiology epizootiology extinction risk mathematical model mortality rates phocine distemper virus population dynamics AGE-STRUCTURED POPULATIONS VITULINA DYNAMICS EUROPE DEATHS article 2003 ftunstandrewcris https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1461-0248.2003.00510.x 2024-06-13T00:25:25Z In 2002 phocine distemper virus (PDV) reappeared in the European harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) population. This outbreak seems to have followed a similar pattern to the 1988 one which killed almost 60% of individuals in most localities. Harding et al. ( 2002) suggested that there is a relatively high (18%) risk that recurrent outbreaks of PDV could reduce the European harbour seal population by 90%. We show that incorporating the effects of observation error during population surveys and of the long-term immunity of survivors of morbillivirus outbreaks indicate a much lower level of risk (< 1%). This suggests that, while the immediate effects of the disease are dramatic, it is unlikely that recurrent epidemics will pose serious conservation problems for this species under current conditions. Article in Journal/Newspaper harbour seal Phoca vitulina University of St Andrews: Research Portal Harding ENVELOPE(75.033,75.033,-72.900,-72.900) Ecology Letters 6 10 889 893 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of St Andrews: Research Portal |
op_collection_id |
ftunstandrewcris |
language |
English |
topic |
epidemiology epizootiology extinction risk mathematical model mortality rates phocine distemper virus population dynamics AGE-STRUCTURED POPULATIONS VITULINA DYNAMICS EUROPE DEATHS |
spellingShingle |
epidemiology epizootiology extinction risk mathematical model mortality rates phocine distemper virus population dynamics AGE-STRUCTURED POPULATIONS VITULINA DYNAMICS EUROPE DEATHS Lonergan, M Harwood, J The potential effects of repeated outbreaks of phocine distemper among harbour seals: a response to Harding et al.(2002) |
topic_facet |
epidemiology epizootiology extinction risk mathematical model mortality rates phocine distemper virus population dynamics AGE-STRUCTURED POPULATIONS VITULINA DYNAMICS EUROPE DEATHS |
description |
In 2002 phocine distemper virus (PDV) reappeared in the European harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) population. This outbreak seems to have followed a similar pattern to the 1988 one which killed almost 60% of individuals in most localities. Harding et al. ( 2002) suggested that there is a relatively high (18%) risk that recurrent outbreaks of PDV could reduce the European harbour seal population by 90%. We show that incorporating the effects of observation error during population surveys and of the long-term immunity of survivors of morbillivirus outbreaks indicate a much lower level of risk (< 1%). This suggests that, while the immediate effects of the disease are dramatic, it is unlikely that recurrent epidemics will pose serious conservation problems for this species under current conditions. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lonergan, M Harwood, J |
author_facet |
Lonergan, M Harwood, J |
author_sort |
Lonergan, M |
title |
The potential effects of repeated outbreaks of phocine distemper among harbour seals: a response to Harding et al.(2002) |
title_short |
The potential effects of repeated outbreaks of phocine distemper among harbour seals: a response to Harding et al.(2002) |
title_full |
The potential effects of repeated outbreaks of phocine distemper among harbour seals: a response to Harding et al.(2002) |
title_fullStr |
The potential effects of repeated outbreaks of phocine distemper among harbour seals: a response to Harding et al.(2002) |
title_full_unstemmed |
The potential effects of repeated outbreaks of phocine distemper among harbour seals: a response to Harding et al.(2002) |
title_sort |
potential effects of repeated outbreaks of phocine distemper among harbour seals: a response to harding et al.(2002) |
publishDate |
2003 |
url |
https://research-portal.st-andrews.ac.uk/en/researchoutput/the-potential-effects-of-repeated-outbreaks-of-phocine-distemper-among-harbour-seals-a-response-to-harding-et-al2002(d49d309e-b30a-4006-b711-317b98d9039e).html https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1461-0248.2003.00510.x http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0141818220&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(75.033,75.033,-72.900,-72.900) |
geographic |
Harding |
geographic_facet |
Harding |
genre |
harbour seal Phoca vitulina |
genre_facet |
harbour seal Phoca vitulina |
op_source |
Lonergan , M & Harwood , J 2003 , ' The potential effects of repeated outbreaks of phocine distemper among harbour seals: a response to Harding et al.(2002) ' , Ecology Letters , vol. 6 , no. 10 , pp. 889-893 . https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1461-0248.2003.00510.x |
op_relation |
https://research-portal.st-andrews.ac.uk/en/researchoutput/the-potential-effects-of-repeated-outbreaks-of-phocine-distemper-among-harbour-seals-a-response-to-harding-et-al2002(d49d309e-b30a-4006-b711-317b98d9039e).html |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1461-0248.2003.00510.x |
container_title |
Ecology Letters |
container_volume |
6 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
889 |
op_container_end_page |
893 |
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1802645224066908160 |