Comparison of the 1988 and 2002 phocine distemper epizootics in British harbour seal Phoca vitulina populations
In 1988 and 2002 dramatic and well-documented phocine distemper epizootics occurred in Europe. While their progression and impact were remarkably similar and consistent over much of Europe, mortality in the UK varied greatly between and within the 2 epizootics. We use antibody levels in blood sample...
Published in: | Diseases of Aquatic Organisms |
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2010
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Online Access: | https://research-portal.st-andrews.ac.uk/en/researchoutput/comparison-of-the-1988-and-2002-phocine-distemper-epizootics-in-british-harbour-seal-phoca-vitulina-populations(4ac65332-d499-4eb5-a971-334374871df7).html https://doi.org/10.3354/dao02153 |
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ftunstandrewcris:oai:research-portal.st-andrews.ac.uk:publications/4ac65332-d499-4eb5-a971-334374871df7 2024-06-23T07:52:12+00:00 Comparison of the 1988 and 2002 phocine distemper epizootics in British harbour seal Phoca vitulina populations Lonergan, Mike Hall, Ailsa Thompson, Hal Thompson, Paul M. Pomeroy, Patrick Harwood, John 2010-02-17 https://research-portal.st-andrews.ac.uk/en/researchoutput/comparison-of-the-1988-and-2002-phocine-distemper-epizootics-in-british-harbour-seal-phoca-vitulina-populations(4ac65332-d499-4eb5-a971-334374871df7).html https://doi.org/10.3354/dao02153 eng eng https://research-portal.st-andrews.ac.uk/en/researchoutput/comparison-of-the-1988-and-2002-phocine-distemper-epizootics-in-british-harbour-seal-phoca-vitulina-populations(4ac65332-d499-4eb5-a971-334374871df7).html info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Lonergan , M , Hall , A , Thompson , H , Thompson , P M , Pomeroy , P & Harwood , J 2010 , ' Comparison of the 1988 and 2002 phocine distemper epizootics in British harbour seal Phoca vitulina populations ' , Diseases of Aquatic Organisms , vol. 88 , no. 3 , pp. 183-188 . https://doi.org/10.3354/dao02153 Epidemic Epidemiology Mathematical model Pinniped COMMON SEAL NORTHEAST SCOTLAND VIRUS ABUNDANCE ANTIBODIES OUTBREAK DECLINES DISEASE EUROPE article 2010 ftunstandrewcris https://doi.org/10.3354/dao02153 2024-06-13T00:29:21Z In 1988 and 2002 dramatic and well-documented phocine distemper epizootics occurred in Europe. While their progression and impact were remarkably similar and consistent over much of Europe, mortality in the UK varied greatly between and within the 2 epizootics. We use antibody levels in blood samples to show that 51 % (Bayesian 95 % CI: 41 to 61 %) of the individuals alive in 5 UK harbour seal populations at the end of the 1988 epizootic had been exposed to the virus, and that the equivalent figure after the 2002 outbreak was 22 % (95 % CI: 16 to 30 %). Antibody prevalence was significantly higher in females than males after the 2002 epizootic. Combining these estimates with information on reductions in the numbers of annuals observed hauled out during surveys of the Wash, Moray Firth, and Orkney populations and a simple epidemiological model, suggests that. the differences between the 2 epizootics were primarily clue to a 27 % (95 % CI: 8 to 43 %) fall in R-0, the basic reproductive rate of the Virus. The large geographic variation in population effects observed within the UK during each epizootic appears to have been mainly due to differences in case mortality, with R-0 being remarkably similar in all the populations investigated. Article in Journal/Newspaper common seal harbour seal Phoca vitulina University of St Andrews: Research Portal Diseases of Aquatic Organisms 88 183 188 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of St Andrews: Research Portal |
op_collection_id |
ftunstandrewcris |
language |
English |
topic |
Epidemic Epidemiology Mathematical model Pinniped COMMON SEAL NORTHEAST SCOTLAND VIRUS ABUNDANCE ANTIBODIES OUTBREAK DECLINES DISEASE EUROPE |
spellingShingle |
Epidemic Epidemiology Mathematical model Pinniped COMMON SEAL NORTHEAST SCOTLAND VIRUS ABUNDANCE ANTIBODIES OUTBREAK DECLINES DISEASE EUROPE Lonergan, Mike Hall, Ailsa Thompson, Hal Thompson, Paul M. Pomeroy, Patrick Harwood, John Comparison of the 1988 and 2002 phocine distemper epizootics in British harbour seal Phoca vitulina populations |
topic_facet |
Epidemic Epidemiology Mathematical model Pinniped COMMON SEAL NORTHEAST SCOTLAND VIRUS ABUNDANCE ANTIBODIES OUTBREAK DECLINES DISEASE EUROPE |
description |
In 1988 and 2002 dramatic and well-documented phocine distemper epizootics occurred in Europe. While their progression and impact were remarkably similar and consistent over much of Europe, mortality in the UK varied greatly between and within the 2 epizootics. We use antibody levels in blood samples to show that 51 % (Bayesian 95 % CI: 41 to 61 %) of the individuals alive in 5 UK harbour seal populations at the end of the 1988 epizootic had been exposed to the virus, and that the equivalent figure after the 2002 outbreak was 22 % (95 % CI: 16 to 30 %). Antibody prevalence was significantly higher in females than males after the 2002 epizootic. Combining these estimates with information on reductions in the numbers of annuals observed hauled out during surveys of the Wash, Moray Firth, and Orkney populations and a simple epidemiological model, suggests that. the differences between the 2 epizootics were primarily clue to a 27 % (95 % CI: 8 to 43 %) fall in R-0, the basic reproductive rate of the Virus. The large geographic variation in population effects observed within the UK during each epizootic appears to have been mainly due to differences in case mortality, with R-0 being remarkably similar in all the populations investigated. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lonergan, Mike Hall, Ailsa Thompson, Hal Thompson, Paul M. Pomeroy, Patrick Harwood, John |
author_facet |
Lonergan, Mike Hall, Ailsa Thompson, Hal Thompson, Paul M. Pomeroy, Patrick Harwood, John |
author_sort |
Lonergan, Mike |
title |
Comparison of the 1988 and 2002 phocine distemper epizootics in British harbour seal Phoca vitulina populations |
title_short |
Comparison of the 1988 and 2002 phocine distemper epizootics in British harbour seal Phoca vitulina populations |
title_full |
Comparison of the 1988 and 2002 phocine distemper epizootics in British harbour seal Phoca vitulina populations |
title_fullStr |
Comparison of the 1988 and 2002 phocine distemper epizootics in British harbour seal Phoca vitulina populations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Comparison of the 1988 and 2002 phocine distemper epizootics in British harbour seal Phoca vitulina populations |
title_sort |
comparison of the 1988 and 2002 phocine distemper epizootics in british harbour seal phoca vitulina populations |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
https://research-portal.st-andrews.ac.uk/en/researchoutput/comparison-of-the-1988-and-2002-phocine-distemper-epizootics-in-british-harbour-seal-phoca-vitulina-populations(4ac65332-d499-4eb5-a971-334374871df7).html https://doi.org/10.3354/dao02153 |
genre |
common seal harbour seal Phoca vitulina |
genre_facet |
common seal harbour seal Phoca vitulina |
op_source |
Lonergan , M , Hall , A , Thompson , H , Thompson , P M , Pomeroy , P & Harwood , J 2010 , ' Comparison of the 1988 and 2002 phocine distemper epizootics in British harbour seal Phoca vitulina populations ' , Diseases of Aquatic Organisms , vol. 88 , no. 3 , pp. 183-188 . https://doi.org/10.3354/dao02153 |
op_relation |
https://research-portal.st-andrews.ac.uk/en/researchoutput/comparison-of-the-1988-and-2002-phocine-distemper-epizootics-in-british-harbour-seal-phoca-vitulina-populations(4ac65332-d499-4eb5-a971-334374871df7).html |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3354/dao02153 |
container_title |
Diseases of Aquatic Organisms |
container_volume |
88 |
container_start_page |
183 |
op_container_end_page |
188 |
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1802643435252875264 |